Will We Ever See A 50-Year Old Break 4:00 In The Mile?

I'm 76 with a current VO2max of 54. According to your 1-2 percent per year figure my VO2max at 30 would have been at least 100. A generous estimate of my 30 yr old VO2max would be 75, which is roughly a 0.5%/yr decrease. That said, from my experience with aging, I think that Bernard Lagat might be able to hit sub-4 at 50 if he continued to train like an elite pro, but nobody else had come close to that, and there have only been 2 who managed it after 40.

I don't think you are 76 with a current VO2max of 54. A VO2max of 54 is equivalent to an 18-minute 5k. The age record for age 76 is by Maurice Tarrant of Canada with a time of 21:37 (he broke it when he was 76 years and 67 days old).

That is a weak record as age 77 record is 20:03 by Warren Utes of USA.

Either way noone above the age of 69 has ever broken 18 minutes.

Stop spreading falsehood. You are either not 76 with a VO2max of 54, or 76 with a VO2max below 54, or neither.

why the hell would you think im Dahl? you're a mentally ill stalker. I hope you don't think about that psychopath in your dreams.

Lol@ a vo2max being equivalent to any given time. you might say a person with a given vo2 max is capable of x time, given other ideal circumstances. a 76 year old doesn't have those other ideal circumstances.

That's not to say I believe the 76 year old gentleman has a vo2 max of 54. Most likely that's a number from a Garmin or similar.

Anyway,

Tell me the equivalent 5k for these two:

The highest measured VO2 max recorded is 97.5 by Norwegian cyclist Oskar Svendsen, while the highest recorded for a woman is 78.6 by U.S. Olympic marathon champion Joan Benoit. These record-setting values highlight that while VO2 max generally declines with age, peak fitness levels can be exceptionally high, especially among elite athletes

VO2 max 97.5 = 11:13 5K, 1:47:49 marathon

VO2 max 78.6 = 13:30 5K, 2:09:40 marathon

Take that to the bank!

runbundle.com

Reverse VO2 Max Calculator

@runbundledotcom

Predict race times from your VO2 Max

Open link

Here's what AI has to say about that:

AI Overview
An 11:13 5K is an exceptionally fast time and corresponds to a pace of approximately
3:37 per mile or 2:15 per kilometer.
A 5K is a distance of 3.1 miles. This pace is extremely fast, even faster than the current men's world record 5K pace of 4:04 per mile. If you have achieved an 11:13 5K time, you are performing at an elite level.

They don’t care. I also think Kipchoge doesn’t care about the marathon masters record.
He also knows it’s extremely difficult because of Bekele.

True but he’s was highly doped

It's theoretically possible. But extremely unlikely. The key is staying healthy at 48, 49, 50 while pounding out brutally fast workouts.

The reason you see older dudes shift towards longer races is they're able to hold up better against slower longer paces than explosive aggressive paces.

100 vo2max with a 1% drop for 46 years would be a 63 vo2max. All your other numbers have similiar basic math errors.

now I would say the vo2max drop doesn’t start til 35 and is more like .75 in people who train hard but that is a minor quibble. If you talk to master runners most feel they are losing a second or two per year. Everyone thinks they are one good training block from getting their speed back. It rarely happens…

No, what happens is that the V02 Max can stay high, but you lose power with age. Last time I was fit was at 65-years-old, and V02 Max was 61, but I couldn't get close to what Garmin thought a runner with that V02 should be able to run.

Sirpoc aint no miler

Nope. That's Vdot, not VO2max

Not until we'll see a woman break 4 in the mile, and I suspect that without PEDs the answer may be never.
All women records in track are faster than the current 50 male records and the men 45 record is 4:10. Some of the people that run these times used to be elite. Maybe not the top of the elite, but not 15 seconds/mile slower than the mile world record.
Also, after 40 is a war of attrition where genetics plays a role. Some people go downhill fast; the records are set by the masters that can hang on there a little longer.

The problem as you get older (45-plus and older) is that your leg muscles lose their explosiveness. Your stride turnover stays the same but your stride length shortens. You are able to run fast/sprint like you did when you were longer. You can lift weights with your legs but you still have a limit on how fast you can run.

Nick Willis was half-assed training for his 3:59 at age 40 (alternating between working out with the men's team and pacing the women). He probably could have run faster or extended his streak if he wanted.

Sure, maybe by a few more years, but not by 10. People loses at least 10-15 seconds in the mile between the age of 40 and 50. Even if his ceiling at age 40 would have been 3:55, or heck, even 3:50, he is not going to break 4 at age 50.

Entertaining responses. First, the VO2max of 54 is from my Garmin 265. Some evaluations have found that Garmin is over 90% accurate in its VO2max calculation, so it's in the ballpark. I wish that the earlier poster was correct that my VO2 max is equivalent to an 18 minute 5k, but running economy at 75+ is not close to running economy in your 30s, 40s or 50s. I did manage to run my last sub-18 5k at 50 (17:56), but I have no idea what VO2max was then. My most recent road 5k was last year and I ran 22:31, which I believe would have been about 4th or 5th in the US age group rankings if I had run that time on the track. I think my Garmin was giving me a VO2max of 55 at that time.

As for "math errors" in my calculation, the original poster did not specify if he was talking about a straight 1-2% decrease per year on the original starting value, or a compounded decrease calculation. I took the lazy interpretation because this is a message board, not a math class, and I didn't care enough to look up the compounding calculation and run it. Under either approach his 1-2% was excessive for anyone who trains continuously over the years and doesn't experience some debilitating condition that limits his or her ability to run.