No, it usually comes down to the rate of physical maturation. Absent injuries, the reaching of a genetic ceiling is not affected by overtraining at a younger age, and it usually occurs during someone’s mid-20s.
Well if you are burnt out from overtraining (psychologically or physiologically) it kinda affects peaking, even if there’s no acute injury
I watched a great Utube video on this subject the other day. Sorry I do not have the link.
Looking at statistics a young HS phenom's chances of becoming a top pro are very hit or miss. Some go on to be top pros, others have so-so careers and others fade into oblivion.
Overall if a runner is a top HS runner there chance of being a top pro are maybe 1 in 3 or 1 in 4. They should enjoy their success early but not count on it lasting into their 20's very far.
Thinking about Cooper Luftkenhaus, Quincy Wilson, Jane Hedengren etc. They are in the 16-19 Age Group, Many say that means short careers, Though Their are Exceptions especially wit Ethiopans and Kenyans Examples Tirunesh Dibaba, Meseret Defar, Eliud Kipchoge were all Great for any level when they were 15-19, And There are A Few American Age Group stars I know of like Mary Decker, Raeven Rogers Etc who had a Long Career, But Everytime There is an age Group Star in the USA who gets a Ton of Hype, everyone starts saying they will burn out.
What are the odds of Runners like the 3 I mentioned who are doing Great things now of being a Top Athlete in 10 years when they will be 26-29? What is normally considered An Athletes Prime. Sprinters 100-400 are rarely above 30 (With Notable Exceptions ofsoccer picks) Distance Runners Normally can compete at a Higher level than Sprinters in their respective events.
Obviously there are exceptions, so you can save your "what about this guy?" replies.
Look at all the ex runners on letsrun. It appears many non elite careers are short, too.i feel like an outcast here for still running and racing long after my PR days
Faith Kipyegon won the 1500 in the world youth championships in a CR and won world junior XC at age 17. Last year she set PRs in the 1500 and 3000 at age 31.
No. It's totally different trait and comes down to training. One thing to note is that usually the talented people give up easier because they have no tools to deal with hardships that will come at you. Usually you can spot those people because they're that they're not talented.
Well yes for the most part. The list goes on for athletes who started early and peaked early as in they never reached their full FULL potential rather they just ran a fast time at an age where its rare I.e 3:27 at 18 years old is rare but 3:26 at 24-25 is common. Running this fast time at 18 means you've hit or come close to your genetic ceiling especially if you started at ages 7-8. Hicham El guerroj started athletics practice at 16 but peaked around ages 24-25 (broke 1500/mile records around this time) while Jakob started training around 7-8 and probably won't ever touch 3:25. He's close to his genetic limit or probably touched it since he ran the 3:27.
Common? In history there have been four 3:26 runners without a single American on the list. Ingebrigtsen is also 24-25 and has peaked at the same time as El G. Given that no one has touched 3:25, it would hardly be a failure for Jakob if he doesn’t, either.
I watched a great Utube video on this subject the other day. Sorry I do not have the link.
Looking at statistics a young HS phenom's chances of becoming a top pro are very hit or miss. Some go on to be top pros, others have so-so careers and others fade into oblivion.
Overall if a runner is a top HS runner there chance of being a top pro are maybe 1 in 3 or 1 in 4. They should enjoy their success early but not count on it lasting into their 20's very far.
It’s more like a fraction of a percent of top HS runners that go on to be successful professional runners.
Thinking about Cooper Luftkenhaus, Quincy Wilson, Jane Hedengren etc. They are in the 16-19 Age Group, Many say that means short careers, Though Their are Exceptions especially wit Ethiopans and Kenyans Examples Tirunesh Dibaba, Meseret Defar, Eliud Kipchoge were all Great for any level when they were 15-19, And There are A Few American Age Group stars I know of like Mary Decker, Raeven Rogers Etc who had a Long Career, But Everytime There is an age Group Star in the USA who gets a Ton of Hype, everyone starts saying they will burn out.
What are the odds of Runners like the 3 I mentioned who are doing Great things now of being a Top Athlete in 10 years when they will be 26-29? What is normally considered An Athletes Prime. Sprinters 100-400 are rarely above 30 (With Notable Exceptions) Distance Runners Normally can compete at a Higher level than Sprinters in their respective events.
10 years is a long time. Let’s look at it as either a long career or a successful career. But we can look at it like this - true world or national class phenoms have at very hit rate because they just have to maintain. For example, look at the people who were competing for US spots in HS:
Webb - competed at USAs. AR
Kessler - competed at USAs. Olympian
Ryun - competed USA meet. WR
Felix - competed at USAs. Most decorated.
Liles - competed at USAs. Dominant.
Norman - competed at USAs. Solid career.
Sydney - Olympian in HS. Dominant now.
Ritz - competed at USAs. AR.
Aldrich Bailey - competed at USAs. Still competing 13 years later.
Ajee Wilson - competed at USAs. AR. Long career. Still competing 13 years later.
Other:
German - should career. Injuries.
These are HS phenoms. I’m sure I’ve missed a ton of failures and successes, but the point I’m making is that if a HSer is already national class - the hit rate is a lot higher vs just being a very good HSer.
Don't know what he ran as a 15-16 yr old, but Steve Cram ran a 3:57 mile when he was 17. Pretty successful afterwards.
An example of survivor bias...
You never hear of the people who ran comparable times and then did nothing.
That's no 'survivor bias', but just a counter example.
Threads like these always make me think of Alejandro Valverde. He was a pro cyclist who allegedly had a 140-ish win streak as a youth rider which earned him the nickname 'El Imbatido' ('The Unbeatable'). He turned pro at a young age, started winning early on and still was the best rider in the world when he became World Champion aged 38. He even was ranked among the best 10 riders in the world his last pro season, aged 42.
Most young talents don't end up having a career like this, but at least some do.
If you’ve seen one runner, you’ve seen one runner. Each runner’s ability and circumstances are unique. Just take what comes, don’t project too far into the future.
Here are all the sub-4 hs'ers in the U.S. listed on wiki, together with their pro pr's at the same distances, plus some additions for xc for recent graduates. It shows that the vast majority improved at least in college. Not too many, like Slagowski and Danielson, went backwards or stopped running.
Alan Webb 3:53.43/3:30.54/3:46.91 AR May 27, 2001 Prefontaine Classic Jim Ryun 3:55.3/3:33.1/3:51.1 WR June 27, 1965 Colin Sahlman 3:56.24/3:32.97 May 28, 2022 Prefontaine Classic Owen Powell 3:56.66i February 22, 2025 (xc redshirt) Josiah Tostenson 3:57.47i/24:31xc February 22, 2025 Simeon Birnbaum 3:57.53/3:52/3:37.02 June 1, 2023 Hobbs Kessler 3:57.66i (3:34)/3:29/3:46 February 7, 2021 Drew Griffith 3:57.72/4:00.58 (22:53xc) May 30, 2024 Drew Hunter 3:57.81i/3:54.8/3:33.41 February 20, 2016 Gary Martin 3:57.89/3:48i/22:19 xc June 2, 2022
Rocky Hansen 3:58.24/3:38.7/3:57.90/13:07/22:18 xc June 1, 2023 ACC xc champ Quentin Nauman 3:58.65 June 5, 2025 sr xc state course record Tinoda Matsatsa 3:58.7/1:45/3:54 June 1, 2023 Connor Burns 3:58.83/4:01/23:44xc June 2, 2022 TJ Hansen 3:59.02 May 24, 2025 redshirt (15:18 5k xc) Jackson Heidesch 3:59.08/- June 1, 2023 Duked Corbin Coombs 3:59.23 May 24, 2025 on a mission Reed Brown 3:59.30/3:36/3:54 June 1, 2017 Rheinhardt Harrison 3:59.33/3:38.70/3:54.74 June 3, 2022 despite health issues Matthew Maton 3:59.38/3:39.97/3:58.34 May 8, 2015 Became a lumberjack Grant Fisher 3:59.38/3:33.72/3:48.29 June 4, 2015 Tim Danielson 3:59.4/- June 11, 1966 San Diego Invitational Simeon Birnbaum 3:59.51/3:37.93 hs/3:52.81/3:37.02 pr’s June 15, 2022 Michael Slagowski 3:59.53/4:10 April 29, 2016 Leo Daschbach 3:59.54/3:55.64 May 23, 2020 Tayvon Kitchen 3:59.61i/23:11 xc February 22, 2025 Zachary Hillhouse 3:59.62/- June 16, 2024 Can’t find any college times Lukas Verzbicas 3:59.71/tri after 62nd in a xc race June 11, 2011 Adidas Grand Prix Tommy Latham 3:59.79/23:57 xc March 28, 2025 Marty Liquori 3:59.8/3:52.2 June 23, 1967 AAU Track JoJo Jourdon 3:59.87i/3:37/3:56.37 February 3, 2024 at Wake