D2 NCAA XC

Here are the 10 at-large teams on the men's side:

CCU (SC #4)
West Texas AM (SC #5)
UCCS (SC #6)
Pittsburg State (C #4)
Alaska Anchorage (W #4)
Northwest Nazarene (W #5)
MSU-Denver (SC #7)
Ft. Lewis (SC #8)
Alabama-Huntsville (S #4)
Augustana (C #5) vs. Tiffin (MW #5) - they have no head-to-head or common competitors in the chain. It will come down to point gap ratio which would favor Augustana.

Would Mankato be a common competitor for Tiffin vs. Augustana? Both beat Mankato.

Not sure if that helps either case.

Looking at it further. For the final team in, these would be the teams being compared.

Augustana
Mesa
Tiffin
St Michael’s
Palm Beach Atlantic
Fayetteville State
Catawba
San Marcos

Based on the first criteria

Head-to-head competition versus other team under consideration for at-large selection.
• If the two teams have competed against each other, the team who won at each
meet is given 1.5 points for each win.

Tiffin would have 4.5 points with wins over Mesa, San Marcos, and Palm Beach Atlantic

Palm Beach Atlantic would have 3 points with wins over Mesa and San Marcos

Mesa would have 1.5 points with a win over San Marcos

Augustana, St. Michael's, Catawba and Fayetteville State would have 0 having not raced any of the teams in consideration head to head.

Tiffin would also have secondary wins (according to collegexc.com) over

Fayetteville State (2 wins)
Catawba (1 win)
St. Michael's (1 win)

Bringing them to 8.5 points

Augustana would have no direct wins over the teams in consideration but would have

Mesa (2 wins)
San Marcos (2 wins)

The rest of the teams under consideration they do not have any common competitors.

Bringing them to 4 points.

Here's what it looks like for the men:

#1-7

CCU

WTAMU

UCCS

PSU - could be selected at #2, #3 or #4, but ahead of Alaska Anchorage and NW Naz because they beat them head-to-head at Lewis. They have no direct or second degree wins or losses against UCCS or West Texas AM so the order of those four would be a committee decision.

Alaska Anchorage

NW Nazarene

Augustana - due to point gap ratio with PSU (and because they have no competition data outside of their region and the teams that they beat in their region #6 UNK, #7 OBU and #8 MSSU don't either). They could be selected anywhere from #3 to #7, but in the top 7.

That leaves #8-#10 possibilities:

#8 MSUD - beat Ft. Lewis who beat Tiffin, Walsh, etc. and get their wins from the Lewis meet.

#9 Ft. Lewis - goes in right after MSUD with the same wins and losses against teams for the season after reversing order of finish from the RMAC meet. They both go in ahead of Alabama-Huntsville because AH lost to Embry-Riddle. Tiffin beat Embry-Riddle (and Palm Beach Atlantic) at Lucian Rosa. Embry-Riddle beat AH.

#10 Alabama-Huntsvile - beat Tiffin at Lucian Rosa.

#11 would likely be Tiffin...

Then you have the Central Region...

After 5th place Augustana going in (top 7 at-large teams in some order listed above) there was 6th UNK, 7th OBU and 8th MSSU. Augustana, UNK, OBU and MSSU have no real "wins" or "losses" against anyone outside of their region. Although there is a chain of wins and losses between UNK, OBU and MSSU. MSSU beat UNK at RMAC, UNK beat OBU at regionals and OBU beat MSSU at regionals. There is no data to compare these teams against anyone else. So theoretically by default they could be #8-#10, but not likely if the committee decide based on merit. MSUD did actually beat OBU at the DBU meet on Oct 11th, but when looking at the line-up they did not have enough of the same guys in their regional line-up to count otherwise all of this would be decided automatically.

Or you have a combination of these six teams vying for spots #8-#10 up to the committee.

Have to be selected in order of regional finish...

*MSUD, Ft. Lewis, AH

*UNK, OBU, MSSU

Examples:

MSUD, Ft Lewis, UNK

UNK, MSUD, Ft. Lewis

To simplify: MSUD, Ft. Lewis and Al-Huntsville raced and beat teams vying for at-large spots outside of their region. UNK, OBU and MSSU did not so they have essentially neutral standing therefore they are still technically mathematically under consideration.

What do you have on the women’s side?

In Round 7, how do you point gap ratio in that round? There are still 5 #4's in consideration. So the only team ahead of them are auto qualifiers.

Fayetteville State
St. Michael's
Tiffin
Alabama Huntsville
Catawba

b. Comparing the team being considered for an at-large bid to the team that placed directly in front of them in the regional results only if that team has already advanced via an at large selection, not as an automatic selection

The only teams that would be considered in this round are Augustana, MSU Denver, and San Marcos for PGR

Wouldn't it then go to a Non D2 opponents? or to the committee?

Can someone try to look at and figure out who the at-large individuals will be??

In regards to the 8 at-large individuals - those can't be accurately determined until the teams are selected. Other than that there are two individuals guaranteed per region and anyone in top five finishers (example individuals finish 1st, 3rd and 5th then they get three autos and those don't count towards the at-large selections).

The main issue with the selection of men's at-large teams past #6 as was already noted is that there is no "out-of-region" competition data for the Central Region Schools placing 5th to 8th to compare to anyone. So it is likely that the selection process for each round that one of those schools comes up will be the point gap ratio. That is a very rare scenario, especially for more than one team in a region. See step 2 here:

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/crosstrack/d2/crosscountry/2025-26D2XCC_SelectionProcedures.pdf

So what percent chance do you guys think Augustana and Tiffin have to make nationals?

If I followed the criteria right the first 6 bids in will be

CCU
Pitt State
West Texas
UCCS
Alaska Anchorage
Northwest Nazarene

Starting round 7 you are comparing
Fayetteville State, Augustana, St. Michael's, Tiffin, Alabama Huntsville, MSU Denver, Catawba, San Marcos.

In head to head Tiffin has 1.5 pts (beat San Marcos), Alabama Huntsville (beat Tiffin), Catawba 3 pts (beat Fayetteville State twice at 2 different meets).

In secondary wins not using the same meet twice in a chain and then +1 or -1 in that chain vs. the 8 teams being compared.

Fayetteville State -1 points, Augustana 1 point, St. Michaels -2 points, Tiffin 7 points, Alabama Huntsville 4 pts, MSU Denver 3 pts, Catabwa 0 points, San Marcos -10 points

Totals for round 7. Tiffin 8.5 points, Huntsville 5.5 points, MSU Denver 3 points, Catawba 3 points, Augustana 1 point, Fayetteville State -1 point, St. Michaels -2 points, San Marcos -10 points.

Tiffin would have the highest point total and advance to NCAA's based on the criteria (how I read it)

Round 8

Fayetteville State, Augustana, St. Michael's, Walsh, Alabama Huntsville, MSU Denver, Catawba, San Marcos

According to the criteria, head to head wins and secondary wins are being calculated simultaneously. Not one before the other. There is also nothing that says one team can be selected over another just because they beat them during the season (Tiffin getting in before Huntsville). It is simply based on the number of head to head wins that team has vs. the 7 other teams in that round and the secondary wins each team has vs. the other 7 teams in that round. It simply comes down to points.

The point gap ratio will only be used if two or more teams are tied and there is no clear selection.

If there is no data or tie in ratios. Then you move to step 3. Non-D2 common opponnents.

Step 4 is going to committee / Strength of Schedule.

Basically to me it looked like they just kick the can down the road until they found a winner of each round.

Tiffin going to Rosa and the Crossover helped them greatly in the secondary win column. Their only "loss" in the head to head column was Huntsville in round 7. But they also picked up a win vs. San Marcos basically helping them neutralize the Huntsville loss.

Huntsville had a decent showing at Rosa but did not beat anyone of significance at their home meet that would give them more secondary win points.

MSU Denver has no head to head wins vs. any teams they are being compared to in round 7 onward. They will get secondary wins by beating Ft. Lewis in Round 7 over Catawba, San Marcos, and Tiffin. Giving them only 3 points.

Augustana will have no head to head wins in rounds 7, 8, 9, or 10. Their secondary wins will be minimal as they did not race out of the region and the teams they beat at regionals did in. I had them having a max of 2 points with secondary wins over San Marcos in two separate meets.

I used the head to head feature on collegexc.com. You can plug in the team you want vs. the other 7 other teams in that round in how they compare.

I will say I could be completely wrong and my math is off but I am just basing it on the criteria and how it is written.

I will go out on a limb and say the last 4 teams in

Round 7 - Tiffin

Round 8 - Walsh

Round 9 - Alabama Huntsville

Round 10 - Ashland

First team out will be MSU Denver. Them beating Ft. Lewis is similar when Adams State got 7th and CSU Pueblo got 6th in 2022. CSU Pueblo's lack of points kept them from advancing in the rounds and thus held Adams State from advancing.

Huntsville has a direct win over Tiffin so Tiffin can not get in till after Huntsville. Read the rules again.

I think there may be some confusion about how Step 1 of the Selection Procedures is applied at each selection round. My understanding is that the points don’t accumulate across all head-to-head matchups, rather each head-to-head matchup is its own distinct competition and we are then trying to determine if there are any teams that are undefeated in head-to-head matchups against the other teams in consideration.

This is how I understand it should work for possible teams in consideration for round 7:
Fayetteville State, Augustana, St. Michael's, Tiffin, Alabama-Huntsville, MSU Denver, Catawba, San Marcos

The undefeated teams in head-to-head matchups would be:
Alabama-Huntsville (0 losses, 3 wins - Tiffin, Catawaba, San Marcos)
MSU Denver (0 losses, 3 wins - Tiffin, Catawaba, San Marcos)
Augustana (0 losses, 1 win - San Marcos)

All other teams are eliminated from consideration because they have losing chains to at least one other team in consideration.

Step 2 - Regional Ratio
Alabama-Huntsville - finished 4th in region so ratio cannot be applied
MSU Denver - ratio = 0.665 (159/239)
Augustana - ratio = 0.929 (118/127)

So, MSU Denver is eliminated from consideration because they have a lower ratio than Augustana.

Step 3 - common non-division 2 opponents
There are no common oppponents so both teams are still in consideration.

Step 4 - Committee decision based on regular season success and strength of schedule.
I’ve gone with Alabama-Huntsville but it doesn’t really matter because either team would be the next team selected anyway.

Care to share where it says that? Maybe I am missing something. I am not trying to argue, just genuinely don't see it. All I saw was

Regional place order/performance. A team cannot be selected ahead of a team that placed in front of them at their respective regional championship meet

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/crosstrack/d2/crosscountry/2025-26D2XCC_SelectionProcedures.pdf

The way I read the criteria was that direct wins carry 1.5 points but one team cannot be selected over another just because they beat them during the season. It comes down to the amount of points your team can rack up and what that final number is.

In round 7 both Huntsville and Tiffin had 1.5 points in the head to head round. Tiffin over San Marcos and Huntsville over Tiffin. Since it is tied, it would come down to who has more secondary wins worth only 1 point. In this case, Tiffin had more secondary wins than Huntsville due to going to the Crossover.

Two sections within Step 1:

"To start this step, the top unselected team from each region is compared to each of the other seven top unselected region teams and viewed one pair at a time (A vs. B, A vs. C, etc.) until all comparisons are complete."

"If one team has a higher score, the other team is eliminated in this round. If the score is a tie, then no team can be eliminated in that comparison. All teams are compared in this round and order of comparison does not matter. If all but one team has been eliminated, that team is selected and the process moves to the next selection. If more than one team remains, then we move to step 2."

I've had D2 coaches verify my understanding but I'm open to listening if someone from the committee says otherwise. Ultimately, I want to create a calculator that applies the selection procedure in the same way as the committee.

Step 1, a direct win is what matters first. Huntsville has a direct win over Tiffin. Secondary wins only factor in when comparing teams that do not have a direct head to head match up.

Thanks for making this site! It has helped my understanding of qualifying in D2 better. Based your post and the criteria stating

• Net wins provide a more accurate assessment of a record rather than winning
percentage, where 1-0 would be better than 10-1.
• Net wins reward a team for winning against common competitors, but also penalizes a team for losing against a common competitor. If only wins were counted, 4-2 would be worse than 8-12.

Finally during Step 1

During this step, head-to-head competition and common DII opponents will be evaluated simultaneously comparing each team to each team by the score of head-to-head wins (multiplied by 1.5) and adding the score for DII common opponents net wins.

So if I do Net Wins + The Head to Head wins to create a Net Score.

Round 7

Fayetteville State 2-2 ( 0 pts)
Augustana 1-0 (1 pts)
St. Michaels 0-2 (-2 pts)
Tiffin 4-2 (2 pts)
Alabama Huntsville 3-0 (3 pts)
MSU Denver 3-0 (3 pts)
Catawba 1-3 (-2 pts)
San Marcos 0-6 (-6 pts)

When included in head to head wins gives the following points

Fayetteville State 0 pts
Augustana 1 pt
St. Michaels -2 pts
Tiffin 3.5 pts
Alabama Huntsville 4.5 pts
MSU Denver 3 pts
Catawba 1 pt
San Marcos -6 pts

Huntsville would be selected

Round 8

Fayetteville State 3-2
Augustana 1-0
St. Michaels 0-3
Tiffin 5-1
Palm Beach Atlantic 2-4
MSU Denver 4-0
Catawba 3-2
San Marcos 0-6

Fayetteville State 1 pt
Augustana 1 pt
St. Michaels -3 pts
Tiffin 8.5 pts
Palm Beach Atlantic -0.5 pts
MSU Denver 4 pts
Catawba 4 pts
San Marcos -6 pts

Tiffin is selected when combining Win/Loss Points + Head to head wins. They beat Palm Beach Atlantic twice (Rosa & Crossover) and San Marcos once (+4.5 pts)

Round 9

Fayetteville State 3-2
Augustana 1-0
St. Michaels 0-3
Walsh 5-1
Palm Beach Atlantic 1-4
MSU Denver 3-0
Catawba 3-2
San Marcos 0-6

Fayetteville State 1 pt
Augustana 1 pt
St. Michaels -3 pts
Walsh 7 pts
Palm Beach Atlantic -1.5 pts
MSU Denver 3 pts
Catawba 1 pt
San Marcos -6 pts

Walsh would advance with head to head wins over Palm Beach Atlantic and San Marcos

Round 10

Fayetteville State 3-2
Augustana 1-0
St. Michaels 0-3
Ashland 4-1
Palm Beach Atlantic 2-4
MSU Denver 4-0
Catawba 3-1
San Marcos 0-6

Fayetteville State 1 pt
Augustana 1 pt
St. Michaels -3 pts
Ashland 3 pts
Palm Beach Atlantic -0.5 pts
MSU Denver 4 pts
Catawba 5 pts
San Marcos -6 pts

Catawba would advance based on having 2 wins over Fayetteville State at Wingate and Queens (3 points).

MSU Denver would be the first team out and continue to block the South Central

I think I am done trying to figure everything out. Best of Luck to everyone! Hope you make it to Parkside in 2 weeks!

I feel like the selection procedures don't stop the head-to-head matchup when there is a direct win.

"During this step, head-to-head competition and common DII opponents will be evaluated
simultaneously comparing each team to each team by the score of head-to-head wins
(multiplied by 1.5) and adding the score for DII common opponents net wins."

Direct wins are given more weight (1.5 points) but common competitor chains are also factored it would seem to me according to the wording. Maybe in practice that's not the reality??

The head to head wins don’t stack like points in d1 it essentially eliminates the team that you beat from consideration until that team gets in. That’s why Augustanas and the central region on that website is showing all of them getting in. They have no wins or loses therefore can’t be accurately gaged in strength compared to the teams with no head to head loses to remaining teams MSU Denver, Huntsville, have no way of knowing they are better than Augustana. If The selection committee goes to regional point gap it makes since Augustana and even UNK could get in because they weren’t too far behind a PSU who did finish high at Lewis so that gives them an advantage if the commit goes to a vote when compared to Huntsville who isn’t eligible for the point ratio. Would love to see a school like Oklahoma Baptist make it to ncaas I’m not sure of a time in recent memory they have qualified