Should I go for sub 3 or sub 2:55 in a marathon

Are you also a time traveller from the past? In 2025 they're looking for someone to go sub 2 or 1h55. You may still be a winner at the 1908 Olympics if you go sub 2h55 to beat me. But elsewhere and elsewhen buddy, this timeline belongs to yours truly.

He didn’t ask what to tell everyone he asked what he should actually do, yall get too consumed with what is broadcast to the world about your life. Newsflash: the world doesn’t care!

1:22 half is in line with 2:50 marathon. Go for BQ! Good luck!

If you need any coaching help, lmk

I'd probably go for 2:55, I ran 1:24 HM last october and then a 2:53 at the same event this october. And that was coming off being sick.. all the training and tune ups were pointing towards 2:50 being really reasonable.

And that was with a really mild bump in mileage, mostly just continued consistency. I was running around 55mpw all of last year and this year, and did pfitz 12/70, which I think averages around 60-65mpw.

General consensus seems to be to go for 2:54, especially if I gain any fitness between now and race day

It feels like you know what you should do and are just seeking our confirmation.

If it were me and I felt like 2:55 was going to be possible, that's how I would train. You're going to know 4-6 weeks out if it's realistic given any complications that came up through training. At that time, you can adjust your target time/pace accordingly.

What are your times on other distances?
Indeed, many people can run sub 2:55 with a 1:22 half and some can break 2:50, but there is also people that is stronger at shorter distances that will have trouble breaking 3 out of 1:22 half marathon fitness.
In my example of one, I am a miler and run a 1:23 half and then tried to break 3 in my first marathon, just to bonk badly and split 1:29-1:55 (ouch!). After 1 more year of training, I run 2:50-low, but by then, I was breaking 1:18 in the half. My advice would be to look at your shorter distances and try to figure out which type of runner you are and plan accordingly. If you can run a 16-minute 5K, you may find it difficult to break 3 hours, but if your best 5K time is 18:30 minutes, then you may be able to pull out a 2:50.

All super in line with each other. Seconds under 18 for 5k, around 37:30 10k, 5:13 mile

You've got some time to work with. Start where you are, then re-evaluate in a few months. Re-evaluate again when you're 3-4 weeks out.

DON'T re-evaluate at mile 5-10 of your race when you're coming off a taper and feeling fantastic and sub-6:30 pace just feels super natural. That's the mistake people make.