Should I go for sub 3 or sub 2:55 in a marathon

Half marathon training was around 40 MPW, marathon will be around 50 to mid 60s

Tell the world that a reasonable goal would be 3 and if you get a 2:55 great!

No, you don’t need to decide that now. Still run based on current fitness estimation (which is likely to be for the faster goal). Take into account the day’s circumstances and how you feel. If you’re really undecided about it, then start some goal pace sections at the slower end of that range in progress to the faster end. See how that feels.

Try that for a handful of weeks. Look at all your training the context of how you think you’re recovering, how your workouts go, and how your long runs go.

Then you’ll start to have a feel for what “goal” is.

I ran the faster pace for the last 8 of my 15 today and it felt like something I'd be pretty confident about being able to do in a 20 mile race, but with some doubts about the last 6. Based on that should I stick with it for my "goal pace" runs? And when I say I could do it in a 20 mile race, I mean I think I could do that next week. Seeing a Twitter post about people in 3:05-3:10 shape blowing up chasing sub 3 is what made me think about this.

A goal: 2:54:59

B goal: 2:57

C goal: 2:59:59

Train for A. Happy if you hit B. Solid effort if you end up with C.

Train for 2:55, pace the first 20 for 2:55. Then HODL. You’ll probably bonk (doesn’t everyone) but the 5 minute cushion will keep you under 3.

Also, if the course has any hills (up or down) get one of the marathon pace bands. It’s worth it just to see how they tell you to accept slower paces uphill and what that means for your goal paces elsewhere.

Since jogging, just do whatever you want. 5 minutes on half a day is not much. Just run through an aid station and one of your walking sections and you can do it.

No. Not everyone bonks.

Instead, train based on your current fitness, build up your fitness, discover what shape you’re in as you get close to race day, and then build a plan based on that. The plan doesn’t even have to be supremely conservative if you have several data points more or less indicating a particular fitness level and if your training is good and mostly consistent.

In the “not everyone bonks” formulation, many of the people who do not bonk are those who train and plan in a way similar to the above (even though those are really broad points rather than getting into the weeds of the training).

If it's your first marathon, the most practical advice is that your goal should be to finish. Shoot for whatever time you like, and don't get down on yourself if you blow up. This is the first of 10,000 steps in your journey.

Sub-3, be more conservative for your first one. If sub-3 pace is too easy you can make up time in the second half. Though I understand it is tempting with the BQ at 2:55.

The issue with that is it's very hard to estimate what marathon shape you are in if you haven't run one, and it's easy to convince yourself you are in better shape than you are

It's not actually my 1st, but it is my 1st since I've started doing even an ok job of training. Nobody who ran 1:22 would have trouble finishing in say 5 hours as an extreme example, so setting no time goal at all is a little silly if you want something that's actually gonna push you, which I do. I expect to get to the starting line with a bunch of data that indicates I "should" be able to run 2:55, but I'm super nervous about actually getting it.

I won't trust the "too easy" feeling at any point short of mile 20, so figuring out what pace to do for that 1st 20 is important for running your best time. I know I'm not making the cutoff here, so maybe there's some logic to just proving I can run a decent time without blowing up, but having a half marathon that indicates I "should" be able to BQ does make it super tempting.

2:57:30

This will serve both goals in a balanced way that is fair for everyone's needs.

1:22 is "in line" with something closer to 2:50, especially if you think you're ready for sub-1:20 and/or already have the speed for that. Don't sell yourself short. Train for 2:50-2:55. The build will tell you what you're ready for. Maybe that ends up being a sub-3 attempt, but you don't have to decide that now. You should be doing your MP work faster than that & see what you can do.

With proper preparation a sub 2:55 is within your reach.

Reference this:

docs.google.com

Vienna Marathon Sub-3 Training Plan

My training plan for the 2011 Vienna marathon. Result: 2:59:35

Open link

Tragically Thomas was killed when a driver hit him. He was a good student.

I would think you would want to be doing at least 70 miles per week if you are seriously training for a marathon.

Sure. But people have various reasons for being below that. Is it optimal? No. Is it doable? Sure. So maybe OP could wait another year until he has mileage up and then train for one, which would could have him looking at 2:40. But maybe he just wants to get a BQ and run Boston. And it seems likely that he could do that on just this mileage.

I plan on going for sub 1:20 a couple months after the marathon whether it goes amazingly or terribly, and I'm actually more confident I'll get than than I am about 2:55