What HS mile time would get you onto 95% of D1 teams?

300 teams. Top 95% would be all but 15. Washington isn't even top 10 but they had 10 sub 4 guys. They left.3:58 guys home at the B10 meet.

Sorry, yeah, I kinda bungled the OP.

Again, I have no idea how my kid will progress. I feel like given that he's showing some talent and dedication, and he has a chance to run in college. But I think it would be foolish to count on getting that close to 4:00.

So, to clarify, I guess I'm wondering kind of where the tiers are - at what level would you expect to start to get scholarship dollars, even if at a less-competitive school. And then what level are the top schools at. I think that part has been answered.

Haha, so, just for reference, my kid stated to me that his goal is to run 4:00 by the time he's a senior. If anything, I've been trying to rein in his expectations.

He thinks he can easily drop :15 per year, starting at 4:45 frosh, 4:30 soph, 4:15, junior, 4:00 senior.

I'm trying to tell him that progression isn't linear and that only a handful of kids get down close to 4:00 or below.

At the same time, I'm not trying to crush his dreams, y'know? And he is doing well in his freshman season of XC off pretty limited training.

Probably a 4:25

Letsrun seems to obsess about the top ones,but There are a lot of really bad D1 teams.

I'd like to give some details but our guy would get doxxed so I have to be vague. We have a Jr in the 405 ballpark, he got calls from Stanford but no money offer. NAU offered a pretty good partial. He ended up taking another offer at a place where he's getting a full ride and NIL money.

4:07 would get you on 95% of D1 teams.. 4:06 would get you on 96%...4:02 on 100%

first off, they will be looking at junior TF times. senior TF times are usually after it's all done for elite recruits. so you have 3 years, not 4.

second, a 445 goal implies 5 or higher now. which is ok but nothing special. a kid in that slot is better served by determinedly putting in the work and chasing the next guy up the track. not fantasizing about batting cleanup for the yankees.

third, it's usually not linear, it's they drop a bunch of time early to like 425 or so then keep dropping from there. it's not usually some steady clip. it gets harder to lose increments the faster you go.

your kid should be chasing local competitiveness or state progression or PRs for a few years. those are normal goals for a kid coming in with a 5. if he doesn't get those intermediate goals he is not running for oregon or any elite d1. he is better off dedicating to the work and racing well. all this endgame stuff, for a frosh with no HS TF meets, is way premature.

you can't even talk to college coaches until after soph year. there is zero point to that as a focus right now. and if he doesn't actually get way below the current 5, his actual endgame will be d3.

Since you are still quite far from college, another thing to think about besides a 4:05 mile time is what type of school your so wants to go to.

P4 big time ncaa sports school

Your State schools.

Expensive private academic powerhouse. (Do you already have money set aside to pay for school?)

You can just pick best choice for running, or you can use running to get into a top academic school you might not otherwise be admitted to.

The more long term thought you put into this, the better the outcome will be.

I would be far more impresed with the 54 seconds guy, not gonna lie

why downvotes on this, guy is just sharing the truth. Many colleges are looking for impact now, and it sucks.
BUT I bet 4:05 would get a full combined ride at any D2 school and would you rather be on a national championship team (even if it’s d2) or say you sat the bench on a top D1 team?

third option is go to a higher tier but not top tier d1 that is developing, good luck finding it though. Most mid majors would probably give a lot for 4:05.

"if you aren't running top 10 national times"

Obviously if you're winning footlocker, breaking 4, etc., this doesn't apply. My advice was for the running equivalent of 3 or 4 star recruits, and how they can stand out relative to the other athletes at their level. Not all 4:05 guys are created equal.

Are you a coach for this individual? Curious as to what you did to help the athlete. Have you had other D1/D2 runners in your stable before?

All of these questions coming from a parent with a coach who isn't too involved in helping potential next level runners. I know it's not their "job" but not seeing much in the way of opening doors or helping and he himself was a D1 runner.

Are you a coach for this individual? Curious as to what you did to help the athlete. Have you had other D1/D2 runners in your stable before?
All of these questions coming from a parent with a coach who isn't too involved in helping potential next level runners. I know it's not their "job" but not seeing much in the way of opening doors or helping and he himself was a D1 runner.

Assuming some other similar stats, a 4:05 kid can just about write his own ticket. Definitely in the 95th percentile; there are usually only a couple of schools this kid would not get a full ride. There are schools offering scholarships to 4:15 athletes.

As said, I despise threads like this. They are perfectly designed to get people to argue with each other.

OP, when you say "D1", you do realize that there are 300 D1 schools, most of whom don't care at all about track and are academic dumpster fires? Because when most people say "D1", they're not thinking about Alabama State or Prairie View or Fairfield, they're thinking about Michigan or Clemson.

So yes, if you had your heart absolutely set on D1, and I mean that to encompass all of D1, yeah, you could run at a lot of them with a 4:30 mile. That team would get boat raced by 50 different D3 teams but sure, you could say that your kid ran D1.

When it comes to money, same deal. A lot of the lower tier D1s don't have any to give, and just have a team for the sake of having it. If you want money at the aforementioned Michigan or Clemson, I don't know, good luck, your kid needs 4:05. If he is dead set on saying that he got a D1 scholarship, then yeah, I don't know, he could run a 4:25 and probably get something somewhere, but then you have to ask yourself what kind of school and team are giving him that, and whether or not your kid actually wants to go there. (Hint: the answer is no.)

I thought we all ran 4:30 in high school...

to me the negative "tell" is he's asking about elite rewards and not what the training is to make something of myself to get anywhere near the goal. there was a kid on here who went from JV scrub to UT to the olympics but his question was give me the tools, not tell my 5 minute mile kid what the rewards are if he gets to 405. thing is the rewards are the same for everyone, but the guy 410-415 is the one with actual hope of getting near them. everyone can have this dream.

it's a poseur conversation, he's nowhere near the goal, and he has to run past everyone varsity and JV to get anywhere near there. and when he starts he'll either be mediocre JV or off the back varsity.

my personal concern is such convos, while presented as a carrot, are often demotivating. a 5 flat kid doesn't need to hear he has 430 potential much less 405, because it can make them act entitled like they are already there. when the only way 405 happens is genetic freakishness meets a lot of hard work. and most kids won't even have the freak genes to get close.

last, to me these insane large growth goals can turn solid gains into misery. every year you will have some mid-HS 455-5 min kid on here like can i drop 25-30s in one season and run d1. the kid could end up short of d1 recruiting but deserve to be proud of dropping the 15s he managed. but instead be pouting they couldn't go from JV time to D1 in a junior season.

it's a happier process if you focus on PRs, some moderate 10s type goal (which you can repeat), and enjoy the ride.

and a lot of this discussion is kids running d3 times not willing to adjust d1 dreams. this kid needs to do the work to be competitive on JV or varsity, then get down to 430 and baseline back end d1 interest, before he worries about taking over the world.

OP here - I actually think D2 or D3 might be a better academic and social fit for my kid, but I'm pretty unfamiliar with how scholarships work at those levels and I assumed there wouldn't be as much money. Maybe I'm wrong in the age of NIL? In any case, he doesn't have any kind of particular mindset about "D1 or bust."

I want to restate that I'm not pressuring my kid in any way or thinking that it's a lock that he'll be fast enough to get $$$ anywhere. But he's very motivated about running fast and going to a "good school," and the $$$ would help big-time. We're in the gray zone of earnings where he won't get any assistance but we don't have enough to fully pay for his school ourselves.