he could 100% run sub 40min there's no excuse unless it's the hilliest course ever like up a mountain. I'm sure his running economy isn't spectacular, but still... sub 40 is a low bar for a professional athlete of his kind
It's entertaining how little runners know about cycling and vice versa. There are tons of really good cyclists who could never run a 2:59 marathon if their life depended on it.
Both sports obviously have aerobic capacity in common. But success in running also depends on economy. While unlikely, a person with top-tier aerobic ability could be in the bottom 1% in running economy and be depressingly slow.
Keep in mind Lance the doper only achieved a 2:46 marathon. Top of the world in one sport. A weekend warrior in the other.
Lance was a runner in high school. In fact be was the USA youth triathlon champion before moving to focus 100% on cycling.
Similarly, Tom Dumoulin is a lifelong runner. Not just some pro cyclist who jumped into a running race.
I don't understand some of you. When the guy with the highest ever lab-recorded VO2 max -a guys whose job have litterally been to run for the last 15 years - admintedly not on road or tracks - posts a 29 min 10K on strava everyone here screams "short course!", "not record eligible!", "downhill!" and other nonesense. But for a cyclist with roughly the same sort of VO2 max numbers, you say 28 is a given with minimal specific training?
I don't understand some of you. When the guy with the highest ever lab-recorded VO2 max -a guys whose job have litterally been to run for the last 15 years - admintedly not on road or tracks - posts a 29 min 10K on strava everyone here screams "short course!", "not record eligible!", "downhill!" and other nonesense. But for a cyclist with roughly the same sort of VO2 max numbers, you say 28 is a given with minimal specific training?
We are not talking about "a cyclist" though, we are talking about a complete freak of nature.
For people that don't follow cycling it's hard to properly explain just what level Pogi is at but I would say that a running equivalent would be if somebody were to, in a single year, rack up the results:
London marathon - 1st
World/Olympic 1500m - 2nd
World/Olympic 5000m - 1st
World/Olympic 10000m - 1st
Chicago marathon - 1st in world record
Diamond league - 6 wins and 2 world records in distances ranging from 1500m to 10000m
Also, cycling is a sport with more money in it than track and field.
I think that if we assume 1. that Pogacar's success comes entirely from his legs and not some form of motor doping, 2. whatever he is doing to be that good, he is allowed to continue doing it while running and 3. he is given a full year to train with a team setup of the level that he has in cycling, then I think 28 minutes is very conservative. I would think rather that Cheptegei's world record would be in danger.
I think Nils van der Poehl ran 36 minutes, but he did quite a bit of long, slow running in the summer.
He called himself a very slow 10k runner considering his aerobic ability.
Back to Pogacar.
Top cross country skiers run sub 32. Some might dip under 30 minutes.
I don't know how much running the top cyclists do but I would guess they do run once a week or so. That should be enough for him to run closer to 30 minutes than 40.
I wonder how little running he would need to break 30 minutes.
Cyclists do not run. They ride, get massages, eat like birds, sleep, repeat.
Even with absolutely horrendous running economy and running from, there is no way an aerobic monster like Pogi shouldn't be able to get very close to 30 mins
You would lose this bet. The only cyclists who quicky excel in running are the ones that ran track/xc as kids, or dabbled a bit in triathlon.
Aerobic motor is there, but the legwork takes some time. 40 min, 36 min better goals until he has some mileage built up.
You are completely wrong! I ran - in the late winter - first high 39 and then high 38 about a week later coming almost directly from soccer training and on a quite demanding hilly forest course when I was 50.
In the autumn the same year after having participated in the national veteran champs in the 800m and the 1500m in the summer and participated some further competitions from 13.3k to 800m I ran a 7.5 city race in about 27.23 which translates into a sub 38 in a 10k.
So Pogacar with his FAR FAR higher aerobic capacity must be able to run a MUCH faster 10K/ 10000m with little preparation.
Exactly. It's silly to say "Oh Pog could for sure run xx:xx". He could have sub-27 potential or he could struggle to break 40. Both are unlikely extremes, but without some indication of his economy, it's pure speculation.
Hard to tell. I wouldn't be surprised if he could do 31:xx. Maybe even 30:xx
I would love to see some friendly competition/exhibition face-off between endurance athletes from others sports in distance running. Have some of the world's best cross-country skiers, biathletes, cyclists, triathletes, swimmers and rowers face-off in distances like the 3000m, 5000m, 10000m, and maybe even half-marathon and marathon. It would've been interesting/entertaining.
(Rowers have heavyweight and lightweight divisions. The lightweight rowers would obviously be best suited for distance running. The cut-off weight is 75kg/165lbs for men and 61.5kg/135lbs for women (at least in indoor rowing/erg-rowing. I think the cut-off weight is a bit lower on water))
I don't understand some of you. When the guy with the highest ever lab-recorded VO2 max -a guys whose job have litterally been to run for the last 15 years - admintedly not on road or tracks - posts a 29 min 10K on strava everyone here screams "short course!", "not record eligible!", "downhill!" and other nonesense. But for a cyclist with roughly the same sort of VO2 max numbers, you say 28 is a given with minimal specific training?
We are not talking about "a cyclist" though, we are talking about a complete freak of nature.
For people that don't follow cycling it's hard to properly explain just what level Pogi is at but I would say that a running equivalent would be if somebody were to, in a single year, rack up the results:
London marathon - 1st
World/Olympic 1500m - 2nd
World/Olympic 5000m - 1st
World/Olympic 10000m - 1st
Chicago marathon - 1st in world record
Diamond league - 6 wins and 2 world records in distances ranging from 1500m to 10000m
Also, cycling is a sport with more money in it than track and field.
I think that if we assume 1. that Pogacar's success comes entirely from his legs and not some form of motor doping, 2. whatever he is doing to be that good, he is allowed to continue doing it while running and 3. he is given a full year to train with a team setup of the level that he has in cycling, then I think 28 minutes is very conservative. I would think rather that Cheptegei's world record would be in danger.
That is not the running equivalent.
First, cycling has more money, but much less global participation. Most of the riders are from one continent. Very few people outside Europe cycle competitively, thus the level of competitiveness in cycling is simply much lower than running. Even within Europe I don't know how many people take up cycling relative to running. Could you imagine how much weaker the fields in running would be if they were similarly limited?
Second, championship running races often become tactical and margins of victory can be tiny. Cycling is incredibly tactical of course, but you have a team to help. What would Pogacar's tactics be in that 5000? He won't have teammates to lead him in the early stages of a race. Would he go hard and let everyone else draft on him? Would he go in the pack and try to out sprint everyone?
Third, the risk of injury is much higher in running if anyone even attempted to do all those events in one year.
Here are some times from cross-country skiers/anaerobic monsters in distance running btw. (I know xc-skiers are more suited for distance running than cyclists are)
Bjørn Dæhlie (considered by many to be the XC-skiing GOAT, 8 Olympic Golds, 9 WC Golds, 6 overall world cup victories. A VO2 max of 96.0 ml/kg/min, and a resting heartbeat around 30bpm 184 (6'0.5) 76kg (167lbs)): 3000m: 8:18.76, 5000m: 14:27.63, 30:31.09, 3000m steeplechase: 9:02.0 (He also did 9:57 in the 3000m at age 56)
Anders Aukland (Olympic gold in relay, two individual WC silvers, a bunch of victories in "long-races" like Birkebeinerrennet, Vasaloppet and Marcialonga. Finished 9th in Vasaloppet at age 49. 88.0 in VO2 max at age 32/33, 79 at age 45, and 72.9 at age 50): 800m: 1:55.13, 1500m: 3:46.79, 3000m: 8:02.77, 5000m: 13:57.6, 10000m: 29:45.85, 3000m steeplechase: 8:50.08. He also did 8:32.51 in the 3000m and 14:50.08 in the 5000m at age 41. And at age 50 he said he was in 9:15-9:20 shape in the 3000m
Ole Einar Bjørndalen (The GOAT in biathlon 8 Olympic Golds, 20 WC Golds, 6 overall World Cup titles, Two Olympic Golds at age 40. VO2max of 86): He did 9:15 in the 3000m at age 15, and recently at age 51 he did 9:12 in the 3000m. I don't know what his lifetime PB is, but I'm sure he was capable of at least 8:30ish, probably faster.
Didrik Tønseth (previously mentioned in this thread, cross-country skier, but has competed in XC-running, finished 2nd in the national championships (10k) in 2019 (behind Henrik Ingebrigtsen) and finished 24th in the European XC Championships in 2019. VO2 max of 85): 3000m: 8:35.24, 10000m: 29:48.80
Harri Kirvesniemi (Finnish cross-country skier, World Champion in the 15km, 5 (!) Olympic bronze medals in the 4x10km relay, Oldest winner of a World Cup event at 41 years and 10 months, a VO2 max of 91.0): 800m: 1:57.8, 1500m: 3:55.3, 3000m: 8:10.0, 5000m: 13:54.4
Juha Mieto (Finnish cross-country skier, an absolute unit at 197 (6'6.5) and a bw between 95 and 105kg (209 - 231lbs). Olympic Gold in the relay, 5 Olympic medals, 2 overall titles in the World Cup): Did 31:30 at a bw of 105kg/231lbs (!). He also did 15:03 in the 5000m. Measured a VO2 max of 7.4l or 77ml/kg/min (bodyweight of 96kg at the time)
Oddvar Brå (World champion in 15km and relay in 1982): 3000m: 8:20.35, 5000m: 14:09.70, 10000m: 29:33.5, 3000m steeplechase: 9:06.4, half-marathon: 1:06:22, marathon: 2:26:47 (at age 41)
Cyclists do not run. They ride, get massages, eat like birds, sleep, repeat.
Maybe 10 years ago they ate like birds, but not anymore. Cycling teams are just as into high-carb fueling as the top ultrarunners these days. They eat plates and plates of rice to keep energy up during stage races
I guess the question is whether he is just getting off of his bike one day and running a 10K or is he training for three or four months. I'd say given a year with solely running training there is better than a 50% chance that he would be under 30 minutes.
But just waking up and running a 10K with no training?.... who even knows.
There is also a 50% chance he would be permanently injured. Guys that have large aerobic engines from biking or swimming almost always end up injured when trying to run.
I guess the question is whether he is just getting off of his bike one day and running a 10K or is he training for three or four months. I'd say given a year with solely running training there is better than a 50% chance that he would be under 30 minutes.
But just waking up and running a 10K with no training?.... who even knows.
I guess it comes down to, like, how good he is at running with zero or minimal running training? Some people are blessed and just have a good, efficient stride without really trying. Others, not so much.
I'd say, if we're doing the "zero running training" approach, he can go as low as 32 if he has a very nice natural stride. I wouldn't be in disbelief if he ran like 40 or something very slow. If he trained for a few months, he's going much, much faster.
My only point of reference without looking it up is that Lance Armstrong ran like 2:45 in a marathon. I believe he trained semi-seriously for it, but it was after cycling retirement. He likely would have gone much faster if he really dedicated to it in his prime.
I think Armstrong ran a 15:35 5k shortly after a cycling, which is obviously more impressive than 2:45.
Cam Wurf too. Triathlete that rides for Ineos. He has tons of sub-1:20 70.3 splits >>> 1:15ish & IM splits in the 2:50s >>> 2:45ish. He could absolutely run something like 32 for a 10k. Pogi, with training, could run something very fast. It might be frustrating for runners, but talent is talent. If he had chosen running, he would've gotten plenty good at it.