Now that he's got the record, there's probably less worry on him going for it in a race and blowing up
2:08 to 2:04 is nice development though
62/62 was perfect pacing for him, and if he was capable of running faster than 2:04.43, he would have. If he had gone out in 61, it’s likely he would have finished north of 2:06.
He might be a threat to win worlds, which is technically a major. Other than that, nowadays, you have to be like a 202 marathoner to win a major. Mantz may be able to pr again in the future, so never say never.
62/62 was perfect pacing for him, and if he was capable of running faster than 2:04.43, he would have. If he had gone out in 61, it’s likely he would have finished north of 2:06.
It wasn’t perfect pacing, his first mile was 4:30.
Once you are regularly finishing in the top 4 like he is, it only takes the right day.
chicago wouldn't have as fast times if they didn't hve pacers i imagine. but like at boston, i'm sure people will still be winning that race in 2:07 20 years from now. most elite athletes at these major marathons will do what it takes to win but they're not going to push any harder than they need to. example: kiplimo shut it down about 2 miles to go and starting running really slow.
Lol Kiplimo definitely did not intentionally slow down. Dude completely ran out of gas. I don’t want to be too critical of the guy who went for it, still ran 2:02, and won the race, but he overshot it and was dying at the end. He wanted the world record.
whatever the case may be, kiplimo is the one guy that you could see having a legit chance to break 2 hours in a real racing conditions. i never thought i would see someone get so close. maybe he'll be back at chicago next year and rip to connor if that's the case...
P.S. I think his coach, Ed Eyestone, deserves some of the blame for this too. He seems perfectly fine with Conner sitting back in a chase group as long as he gets the American record. That mindset might produce fast times, but it’s not the kind that wins big marathons.
You'd have preferred he go out with the leaders in 60:xx?
that's the mentality he has always had at other races like boston. going out with the lead group and staying with them until he can't do it anymore. when he did that at boston i was like "this is the type of guy that wants to win". he needs to get back to that mentality and very fast.
Think you might have been drunk on bussy when you made this post!
I find it very unlikely this is Mayeroff, I don’t think he’s posted here in well over a decade. Probably having too much fun on Soi Cowboy.
i'm not THAT jason but lets have a moment of silence for the real jason. a nice helpful dude in the running community who ran a 2:17 while enjoying other things in life too...
You'd have preferred he go out with the leaders in 60:xx?
that's the mentality he has always had at other races like boston. going out with the lead group and staying with them until he can't do it anymore. when he did that at boston i was like "this is the type of guy that wants to win". he needs to get back to that mentality and very fast.
Different race, different course. Boston, with its course, is an equalizer. Same with a hot weather marathon. On a flat fast course in cool temps, you gotta run your own race, at least to an extent. Mantz know's he cannot run 2:01 or even 2:02, so going out with the lead group at almost WR pace would have just been plain stupid. Shoot, even beating the AR by a whole minute he was still only 2:04 on an absolute perfect day and course, with great pacing.
No, Mantz did exactly what he should have. He's not a 2:01/2:202 guy like John Korir or Jacob Kiplimo. If he went with them, what would have happened? Yeah he could have maybe run 18 miles at that pace, but the last 10k would have been agony city. He knows this, so does Eyestone.
If it's NYC or Boston, then yes, Mantz would have been up there with the leaders, even if it was Korir and Kiplimo, but not when he knows those guys are likely running 2:02 or lower.
Yes — Conner could absolutely benefit from becoming more technical. Improving running efficiency, form, and pacing strategy would help him conserve energy, reduce injury risk, and extend his competitive longevity — much like Popovich’s focus on smart, sustainable performance.
Eyestone has been his coach for eight years. If there is something wrong with his form that can be fixed, it would have happened years ago.
Exactly. Plus he has one of the best strength coaches in the business. I’m sure he has been optimized.
It's there but it has to be one of those crazy weather races. Maybe a frigid cold one like the Boston. Or where all the African big guns go out the first half at a suicidal pace and Mantz held back and ran his own race.
I honestly think there's like a 40% chance he gets a marathon win. There are 7 marathon majors now, in addition to world's, Olympics, and now Valencia is a huge deal. It's not technically a major but many athletes treat it like a major.
We're seeing a lot of athletes now drop out of races early if they don't feel great, instead of powering to the end and seeing how they can do, because they want to run another marathon in the fall or turnaround fast, etc. You get a slower field, bad weather day, championship style course, with a bunch of east Africans who are looking for paydays later in the year, he could win a major.
At this point, I’d give Conner Mantz less than a 10% chance of ever winning one of the big three marathons — Chicago, New York City, or Boston. He’s clearly world-class, no doubt about that, but we’ve now seen enough races to get a realistic picture of where he fits in.
Does anyone here honestly think Mantz can win one of these races in the next few years? Or is his ceiling more like “perennial top American and occasional podium threat” rather than champion?
P.S. I think his coach, Ed Eyestone, deserves some of the blame for this too. He seems perfectly fine with Conner sitting back in a chase group as long as he gets the American record. That mindset might produce fast times, but it’s not the kind that wins big marathons.
He turns 29 in December so he’s probably got another 6-7 years tops where he could look to improve his best marathon time. I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t drop his best below 2:03:30 in that time frame. Trouble is most marathon majors are been won in faster times that this currently. Also taking into account that other elite marathon runners who are currently running faster than him will also likely continue to improve their times I would say he has an uphill battle.
At this point, I’d give Conner Mantz less than a 10% chance of ever winning one of the big three marathons — Chicago, New York City, or Boston. He’s clearly world-class, no doubt about that, but we’ve now seen enough races to get a realistic picture of where he fits in.
Does anyone here honestly think Mantz can win one of these races in the next few years? Or is his ceiling more like “perennial top American and occasional podium threat” rather than champion?
P.S. I think his coach, Ed Eyestone, deserves some of the blame for this too. He seems perfectly fine with Conner sitting back in a chase group as long as he gets the American record. That mindset might produce fast times, but it’s not the kind that wins big marathons.
If he ran NY and Boston every year for 8 straight years and stayed healthy the whole time, I’d say he has about a 70% chance of winning one. Especially since his appearance fee would directly eat into the funds available for them to recruit other runners. If he runs Chicago and London instead, it’s more like a 10% chance. So odds really depend on race choice within the majors.
62/62 was perfect pacing for him, and if he was capable of running faster than 2:04.43, he would have. If he had gone out in 61, it’s likely he would have finished north of 2:06.
It wasn’t perfect pacing, his first mile was 4:30.
Once you are regularly finishing in the top 4 like he is, it only takes the right day.
4:30 with a tailwind, so not as overly aggressive as it sounds. I'd love to see him win a major, but think it would be a huge longshot, less than 5% chance, if the same level of competition continues to show up for these races, which it probably will, given the payoff. Even if he could hang with those guys, which is unlikely, he doesn't have a killer finishing kick.
I do sometimes sense that they are a little too conservative. But I've never been in their shoes and I doubt you have.
no i never have. but i dont like the way he ran the race today. some of his other races he went out with the leaders and hung on until he couldn't do it anymore. i'd much prefer that type of attitude. and performance.
So, you'd rather see him run like Rupp? He's pretty much guaranteed to come in, oh that's right, 4th or worse. Kinda like today. I'm sure he and his coach KNEW he couldn't handle a 60-minute first half and hang on for whatever. So, running the smart race has a better chance for top performance in those circumstances than pretending to "race" and blowing up in the last 10K.
It wasn’t perfect pacing, his first mile was 4:30.
Once you are regularly finishing in the top 4 like he is, it only takes the right day.
4:30 with a tailwind, so not as overly aggressive as it sounds. I'd love to see him win a major, but think it would be a huge longshot, less than 5% chance, if the same level of competition continues to show up for these races, which it probably will, given the payoff. Even if he could hang with those guys, which is unlikely, he doesn't have a killer finishing kick.
It was overly aggressive because Mantz said it felt overly hard to him before he even saw the split and felt like he had to slowly recover. Otherwise his day would’ve been ruined. His pacers slowed before the half and that helped him get back on track.
Now that he's got the record, there's probably less worry on him going for it in a race and blowing up
2:08 to 2:04 is nice development though
62/62 was perfect pacing for him, and if he was capable of running faster than 2:04.43, he would have. If he had gone out in 61, it’s likely he would have finished north of 2:06.
This is the correct answer. Maybe one day Mantz will be able to run 1:01:55/1:01:55 but 1:02:19 for the half on this day was perfect. He’s approaching his limit.
But I, too, would love to see him go for it again at like a Boston and try to win the damn thing. Not sure he’s going to win a major, but I think he will podium before it’s all said and done.
Eyestone has been his coach for eight years. If there is something wrong with his form that can be fixed, it would have happened years ago.
Taking a look at his running marathons just two years ago, you can see that the crazy rotation that Mantz had on his lower body has already been reduced. His form is better right now than in '23 or '24. they are working on it as well as the fitness. So, not a one-time fix but "in process" is the best way to see it.
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