Worried about Oregon Men

You need to get a grip my god. Birnbaum ran a 3:52 as a sophomore and you are using his name as a stand-in for kids who struggle to develop in college.

Nice time. How many points did it get at NCAA meet?

First team all-american outdoors in the 1500. Big ten champ in the 5k as well. Do those results not count for "being able to compete consistently with your average 23 yo foreign athlete"?

He's winning conference titles, scoring points at nationals as a sophomore. What exactly are your expectations if that doesn't meet them?

He wasn't 18 which was my point. He was older after a rough first year. But you are right, he was 7th at ncaa. A very unforgettable jogfest in which a couple other contenders were eliminated in semifinals only to see a repeat in the final. He did take the lead early but gave it up. So yeah, I do have higher expectations from a 3:52 guy especially when Im cheering loudly for him, not the other guys. Reina could have won the meet for Arkansas. Nope transfers to WA. Many didnt have the courage to push the pace and run up to their potential. Just my opinion. I know, times dont mean much in championship racing but you brought up a time. It didnt matter. He wasnt as ready as he could have been but my point is that it takes time and some luck. Very difficult for overtrained 18 year olds to compete at that level.

He doesn’t care anymore and hasn’t for a while.

His moves have been for money. He has been loving multiple cash streams from coaching BTC and U of O. BTC enabled him to pull money from side sponsors that should have been for the athletes. He was able to coach side Japanese runners for a fee. U of O a led to more cash, b to stability, c to less scrutiny .

He was dishonest to the athletes of BTC. Remember… Grant Fisher said that he was called by U of O about Jerry, prior to that he and none of BTC knew of Jerry’s true intentions which were long in the making.

He didn’t have the wherewithal to manage a pro team and a university team simultaneously. Eventually the pros gave up on Jerry not paying attention to them and those that moved on have done quite well.

Never understood the melamine ability of Jerry with Nike.

Is Fasthorse injured? I didn’t seem him in the results yesterday

Nope, not injured. In fact, they are all healthy right now.

Jerry's ideal competitive schedule for a miler:

Big10 XC

Regional XC

NCAA XC

Indoor Qualifier (BU)

NCAA Indoors

Big10 Outdoor

NCAA Outdoor Regionals

NCAA Outdoors

Racing more than 9 miles in a full year is simply not smart

8 times*

Some of what you say here is true, but...

Let's say half of these over competitive high schoolers are overtrained and burned out, while half are doing great in college.

I give you Fisher, Nico Young, Cole Hocker, Ed Cheserek, Parker Wolfe, Gary Martin, Nathan Green, Galen Rhop and Matthew Centrositz as some examples of high school stars who are great in ncaa. I won't name busts, but plenty of those too.

The problem for a coach is that there appears to be no way beforehand to figure out which will be which. Note the stars and the busts happen to all coaches and at all the top programs, so no coach that I'm aware of has figured out only how to recruit only the right ones.

It's a myth at top schools that coaches are looking for that secret underdeveloped runner. They do happen, but by accident. They either develop at a smaller school, or they were back of the team walk ons at top schools.

You are correct here that new roster limits will reduce these 'slow' walk ons at top programs.

It's always easy in hindsight to say that Cam Levins was an underdeveloped potential star, or that Lukas Verzbicas was not going to make it in the ncaa as a 100% runner.

Nobody, however, makes these projections when the kids are still in high school. If someone does know in advance, it can be a goldmine business, consulting with coaches on who is overtrained, and who has tremendous further potential.

Take a shot. Who in the 2026 class are the busts and who are the right undertrained development recruits?

Rheinhardt Harrison . . . bust or not?

I do think there are some clues that can be warnings to college coaches. One example - comes from a highly competitive (internally) team or NXN factory that they had to fight always to remain at or near the top and probably pushed slightly beyond their development abilities the first couple of years of high school to attain the top 7 glory. Probable “raced” a lot of everyday training and easy runs with highly competitive teammates. That has had played out multiple times i think enough to be a cliche/warning.

Also really over the top/dialed in to perfection high school school coaches. That probably gets to be a mental and physical drain after four years so again once some of the kids get to college that is when they check out. I see the argument some of these HS coaches make about that they got them to get D1 programs or experiences they would have never had in HS and that is absolutely true - but I think it ups the chances of some of them not panning out in college

For what it's worth, Jerry was not the first choice for the head cc/track position. Only after interviews had been conducted and a definite top choice been made did Phil Knight step in and tell the AD that HE wanted Jerry since they had a great relationship. And the AD had no choice but to offer the position to Jerry. I get it, Phil Knight has done wonders for UofO and the total university and should have a say in things. Just putting some facts to how Jerry ended up as the director of the program.

Ok,Ill give it a shot with just a few kids knowing a out their programs, training environments, coaches background, how they race etc...

I would say that the Crater, OR kids wont be heard from much in the future more than a conference level point getter. I think the Nauman kid from Iowa is a little Seb Coe in that he has incredible speed, no training partners, iowa weather and mild competition until post season meets. I think Powell has a 50/50 chance because of pedigree and the fact that he has a strong multilevel relationship with his coaches. He will be pretty effective at 5k. It's kids like Bodey Lutes and Nauman that have the most potential in my opinion. They ran really fast chasing others post season without hammering to get records indoors and all outdoor season. Yes, they got records but not running against college kids or pros. I think they are probably realistically excited about what's possible and probably patient enough to grow into their talent with increased workloads vs already grinding for several years creating a lower ceiling.

Oregon will be a big time contender outdoors they have added some huge transfers coming in including the Dec champ and world record holder in the discus plus a triple jumper from D2 who will get big points. Between those three alone that could be 25 points.

Juan Gonzalez spanked Burns and Simeon, Jerry going to lift that redshirt?

They pretty deep already. Why waste a redshirt on a backend guy when they already are at least 8 deep. Redshirt him and take advantage of 4 years of Juan Gonzalez who is a year older and better.

Worried about Nauman going there. He is very low mileage and I fear Jerry is going to burn him to a crisp. Super talented kid but wish he would have looked elsewhere.

I would like to see him train at an appropriate level for an in coming freshman with a normal academic load and compete that first year. Then consider redshirt maybe later if it's needed. Why not let kids get their feet wet, get focused and get hungry vs trying to save them up for a 5th year of eligibility starti g their freshman year? I know many would consider it a waste of eligibility but it's much easier to stay focused as an unnatached soph/Jr/Sr. If they are good enough to go pro beyond the 5th year, they probably will anyway.