Perhaps you should have taken a look on the 2025 toplist in the 5000m before you posted.
So you think that Mehary is the only one who can hang on if Fisher and Nico goes sub 12:50?
What about Gebrhiwet, Mills, Balew, Gressier and perhaps even Jakob.
And we don´t know for certain that Fisher and Nico can go sub 12:50 without pacemakers even if they share pacing duty between them.
I don´t think there is any easy solution for the American runners. All 3 of them are among the favorites but so are the above mentioned, possibly except Jakob.
You're absolutely right. Fisher and young should let the pace dawdle and wait until 4900 meters to kick. I'm sure that will work out awesome for them. 👍
Huge strawman and false dichotomy. The only two options in championship 5000m racing are not leading from the gun and waiting until the last 100, lol.
Realistically the "best" way to win would be to do what Cheptegei did in Tokyo 2021 but I doubt any of these guys are good enough to do it. So, the next best option is what Jakob did in Eugene - go to the front with 900 left, run a 60 and then hope you can close in a 53 still with something left for the homestretch.
The only way that they have any hope of winning is for there to be a fast pace. And when I say fast, I mean under 12:50. If the race is that fast alot of the speedy guys will be left behind.
You're absolutely right. Fisher and young should let the pace dawdle and wait until 4900 meters to kick. I'm sure that will work out awesome for them. 👍
Huge strawman and false dichotomy. The only two options in championship 5000m racing are not leading from the gun and waiting until the last 100, lol.
Realistically the "best" way to win would be to do what Cheptegei did in Tokyo 2021 but I doubt any of these guys are good enough to do it. So, the next best option is what Jakob did in Eugene - go to the front with 900 left, run a 60 and then hope you can close in a 53 still with something left for the homestretch.
There is no way fisher or young will win this or even medal if they allow a 13:30 race. doesn't matter if they kick at 4100m or 4900m. They won't win a slow race.
I still say their best shot is to run very hard from the gun, establish a big lead, and share pacing duties. Someone said it's cooling off in Tokyo. Could they front run 12:45? If so, how many runners other than Mehary would be able to hang with them?
They have to take it from the gun and absolutely drop the hammer, try to string out the field, drop hocker and the kickers. I believe in nico ngl. I think he has that speed to medal if the race begins from the gun. Do some crazy kenya type running like what was done to try to stop mo farah in beijing 2015 10,000m. Another poster mentioned this specific race, and I think it is the best option right now. Nico has the american record, he has to go for it with grant.
i don’t believe in Mills after the fall but I will say I am a fan.
They have to take it from the gun and absolutely drop the hammer, try to string out the field, drop hocker and the kickers. I believe in nico ngl. I think he has that speed to medal if the race begins from the gun. Do some crazy kenya type running like what was done to try to stop mo farah in beijing 2015 10,000m. Another poster mentioned this specific race, and I think it is the best option right now. Nico has the american record, he has to go for it with grant.
If they are shooting for 5th place, then sitting and waiting is a very good strategy. If they actually want to win, they have to go for it!
They have to take it from the gun and absolutely drop the hammer, try to string out the field, drop hocker and the kickers. I believe in nico ngl. I think he has that speed to medal if the race begins from the gun. Do some crazy kenya type running like what was done to try to stop mo farah in beijing 2015 10,000m. Another poster mentioned this specific race, and I think it is the best option right now. Nico has the american record, he has to go for it with grant.
i don’t believe in Mills after the fall but I will say I am a fan.
No need to be from the gun. But try to pull off what Ayana did in 2015 - take off with 3000m to go and see how it goes. It’s a risky strategy, but I cannot see Young or Fisher medal in a slow race.
In 2021 Kiplimo led the first few laps then Cheptegei the next few, then Kimeli (Kenya) the last few before Cheptegei took over at 600 to go or so. I think the Americans could try that but even in 2021 no one really was dropped till the last 400 or so. Strength wise I think they have an advantage over the field (no Almgren, Jakob not at 100%) with the exception of maybe Mehary and Mills
Nico Young has the ability to medal or even win at any pace, but his key this like in the 10k lies in positioning. If he can maneuver himself into a strong spot with 500 meters to go close enough to respond to surges without wasting energy he can unleash his kick when it counts. He can do it at any pace.
The usual strategy for Grant Fisher and Nico Young in a 5,000 meters is to draft behind the leaders for about two miles and then take the lead and push with a mile to go and burn out the rest of the field and kick to the win. But Grant Fisher tried this during the heat. He finished his last 1,600 in 3.56, and he was unable to shake most of the field. The field is too good. They're not going to lose contact. He can try going faster, a 3.54 or a 3.53. I don't know if he's capable of that, but the problem is that that probably still won't be enough to shake some of these guys, and he'll just burn himself out even more, making it easier for them to outkick him. And the same is true for Nico Young.
So what option do they have if they want to win this race? They can wait even longer. They could let the pace dawdle then wait until 400 meters to go or 200 meters to go. Now you're talking about trying to outkick Jimmy Gressier and Isaac kimelli and Cole Hocker, and George Mills, a 3.28 guy. It's not going to work. They can't outkick those guys in a slow race.
The only way that they have any hope of winning is for there to be a fast pace. And when I say fast, I mean under 12:50. If the race is that fast alot of the speedy guys will be left behind.
So they have to run a hard pace. They have to, and I know that that's hard, but it's their only option if they want to win. It's their only option if they want a medal. So my recommendation is that Grant Fisher and Nico Young team up and run hard from the gun. Run the first lap in 61 seconds. Go through 800 in like 2.03 and dare anyone to come with. Maybe Mehary will, but most of the field will not.
And Fisher and Young can alternate the lead, sharing the burden of leading. And if Mehary wants to draft off of them, well, so be it. But the rest of the field is going to be so far back that they won't be able to use these top two or three guys as rabbits.
Call it the Gudaf Tsegay strategy, which she used to destroy Beatrice Chebet in a 1500 last month.
I don't think it's guaranteed to work, but I think Young and Grant Fisher are both fully capable of running under 12:50. And if they do that, I think they have a good chance of winning a medal. I would give them a 30% to 50% chance of medaling in that scenario. Whereas if they sit and wait, I think their chances are less than 20%.
Their crucial mistake was letting the salted Norwegian take the lead and slow everything down from 3000-4000m. This made it yet another kicker's game, which thankfully Cole was able to handle.
13:10 pace will disable Hocker’s kick and they match up well with Gressier and Kimelli. They probably won’t beat Mills in any scenario and if fit, 12:50 pace won’t gap him.
Their crucial mistake was letting the salted Norwegian take the lead and slow everything down from 3000-4000m. This made it yet another kicker's game, which thankfully Cole was able to handle.
Letting the pace slow during that crucial middle stretch is, funnily enough, what Jakob has done wrong in his lost 1500 finals. By the bell, everybody was bunched up and anyone who had been hurting earlier in the race would have had a chance to recover. To be honest, Hocker looked good enough that he probably would have won even if it was a 12:50 instead of a 12:58, but maybe they’d have run some of the kick out of some of the others who beat them.