Yes, Kipchoge would eventually overcome the differences. I don’t think he waltzes from marathon road training into a 20mile trail win, but yeah give him 3-6mo and he’d figure it out.
I was a college runner and in my first races was losing to a friend who couldn’t break 6 in the mile, there’s a learning curve.
He wouldn't even be close to be able to finish half the course.
The alps are pretty steep (think 800-1200' / mile of vert) and his legs would get destroyed in the downhill. He doesn't have the quad muscles required to sustain 33,000-feet of the descent (not many do). Not saying he couldn't get there but he better starts doing 25,000 feet of vert gain/ week for the next couple years for his body to adapt to the downhill and very uneven terrain.
Pro trail runners and Pro road runners have very DIFFERENT legs.
Who are the low 2.0 marathon runners turning up to Comrades?
Willie Mtolo, NYC marathon winner, only got silver twice. I misremembered, "only" a 2:08 guy but still.
The comrades record holder is a black South African. Guy was a retired security guard who was a 2:13 marathon runner. You are racist and delusional if you believe that some 2:03 Kenyan could not dominate Ultras if they were so inclined.
Maybe he would, but it's a different ballgame. Take Michael Aish, 2:13 marathoner, 13:22 5k, 27:46 10k. He couldn't even with Leadville and tried a bunch of times. UTMB is much harder physically and stiffer competition.
Imagine if the beast Kipchoge ran UTMB this weekend. It would be insane. He’d probably run it in 18 and change hours. He could take a nap and Tom Evans, Francois Dhahene, Ben Dhiman, etc would still have a hard time catching up to him. It wouldn’t be fair even. Puppi and Eli Hemming may cry as well in CCC. How amazing do you think Kipchoge would do at UTMB events?
2 completely different sports. That would be like saying Lance Armstrong could have ran a 2 hour marathon. or Kipchoge would win the tour.
Willie Mtolo is the example you are going to use to refute why someone like Kipchoge could not successfully transition to the trails in 2025/2026 if he wanted to?
Willie Mtolo who won NYC in 1992? Only won 1 major marathon in his career? He ran NYC again in 1994 over 20 minutes slower. Feels like a steep drop off in 2 years. And then ran Comrades in 2000 and still finished second? That's your evidence? What kind of advancements in nutrition, recovery, and training do you think he had access to in 1992?
Sibusiso Kubheka just became the first person to run 100km under 6 hours. Prior to this, the furthest race he had ever done was a half marathon in 2021 and he ran it in 1:01:36. Kipchoge's half marathon split at this years 2025 London Marathon was 1:01:21.
Stop pretending like Kipchoge would have no business dusting trail runners that were at best sub-elites on the roads, if he were to ever transition to the trails. The guys who dominate the roads at the elite level have transferable skills to be successful on the trails. Elite road runners eat, sleep, and breathe all aspects of training specific to the roads.
Maybe if trail running starts bringing in more money, you’ll start seeing some real changes in the athletic landscape. Stop acting like trail runners are these mythical creatures that were born with magical powers - they started as regular runners on tracks, roads, and did some cross country. Eventually they made a switch because they accepted couldn’t win in other venues and found some enjoyment by running trails. Just eat your trailmix in silence and admit that you are a fan of the WNBA of running
Maybe he would, but it's a different ballgame. Take Michael Aish, 2:13 marathoner, 13:22 5k, 27:46 10k. He couldn't even with Leadville and tried a bunch of times. UTMB is much harder physically and stiffer competition.
Still having trouble coming to grips with the reality that there is a big difference between a 2:03 guy and a 2:13 guy. Aish ran Leadville after he was done doing real running. He was in his mid to late thirties and was more concerned with mountain biking (he did a 100 mile mountain bike race a couple days before one of those years he finished second or third at Leadville).
Sibusiso Kubheka just became the first person to run 100km under 6 hours. Prior to this, the furthest race he had ever done was a half marathon in 2021 and he ran it in 1:01:36.
No, he's done at least a couple of 50k races before (2:42 in 2021, 2:49 in 2022). These are all road races though, so not much like UTMB.
Henrick Pfeifer 2:07 marathon tried to Sierre Zinal 35km trail with no specific training and got 41 place.
Now if there was more money in trail running more road guys would switch and some might dominate, but showing up with no trail training only works in low key fun trails , once there is price money specific training is a must...
Still having trouble coming to grips with the reality that there is a big difference between a 2:03 guy and a 2:13 guy. Aish ran Leadville after he was done doing real running. He was in his mid to late thirties and was more concerned with mountain biking (he did a 100 mile mountain bike race a couple days before one of those years he finished second or third at Leadville).
No, the year he did the bike race a week earlier he got 22nd, but he was giving an honest attempt the years before. What you're not getting is that marathon times do not magically convert to 15/20/24 hour times especially on different terrain. David Roche, who no sane person would argue could get anywhere close to any of Aish's PR-s, has a Leadville PR that is 90 minutes faster than Aish. DIfferent people are good at different things. And no doubt any of the ultra records would be demolished if there was more money in the sport, but not necessarily by road or track runners, and definitely not after just one training block on trails.
Stop acting like trail runners are these mythical creatures that were born with magical powers - they started as regular runners on tracks, roads, and did some cross country. Eventually they made a switch because they accepted couldn’t win in other venues and found some enjoyment by running trails. Just eat your trailmix in silence and admit that you are a fan of the WNBA of running
That's like the logic of 5 year olds arguing whose father would win in a fight. People follow trail running because it's the type of running that they enjoy doing. And the GOAT trainl runner, Kílian Jornet, was never a track/road runner.
Sibusiso Kubheka just became the first person to run 100km under 6 hours. Prior to this, the furthest race he had ever done was a half marathon in 2021 and he ran it in 1:01:36.
No, he's done at least a couple of 50k races before (2:42 in 2021, 2:49 in 2022). These are all road races though, so not much like UTMB.
He was faster than the old record by 6 minutes, which is only 30 seconds in the marathon. More importantly the record was not ratified because he was using pacers a'la Kipchoge sub-2 and an illegal shoe.
That's like the logic of 5 year olds arguing whose father would win in a fight. People follow trail running because it's the type of running that they enjoy doing. And the GOAT trainl runner, Kílian Jornet, was never a track/road runner.
Except it’s not like that at all. Running is running. Aerobic base is aerobic base. Trail running is a skill that people can pick up in a couple months or less. You cannot go from being a 2:15 marathoner to a 2:01 marathoner. That is an impossible progression. Go ahead, enjoy trail running, it’s your thing. Same with the WNBA, some people enjoy watching layups and bounce passes. But it is intellectually dishonest if someone were claim that LeBron James would not dominate simply because the women play a differently structured game. €20,000 to the winner of UTMB and a Hoka sponsorship isn’t going to attract the top talented road runners in the world to sharpen their trail skills. But now with Nike in the game with OCG, they might incentive their athletes a little differently in the next couple years, so who knows.
Also, funny thing is that Jornet did run a road 10k in 2020 and it turns out he has the skill level of a hobby jogger
. As far as trail runners go, Jornet is the tip of the spear. Looks like we are routinely seeing better ultra performances out of really road guys making the transition to the trails, than trail guys trying to run on the roads….
Perhaps Kipchoge is a bad example by OP, but the broader point is still true: If there was any serious money in ultras, the craft beer drinking, lumberjack beard wearing, hippies who currently dominate the sport would get absolutely embarrassed by East Africans.
Except it’s not like that at all. Running is running. Aerobic base is aerobic base. Trail running is a skill that people can pick up in a couple months or less. You cannot go from being a 2:15 marathoner to a 2:01 marathoner. That is an impossible progression. Go ahead, enjoy trail running, it’s your thing. Same with the WNBA, some people enjoy watching layups and bounce passes. But it is intellectually dishonest if someone were claim that LeBron James would not dominate simply because the women play a differently structured game. €20,000 to the winner of UTMB and a Hoka sponsorship isn’t going to attract the top talented road runners in the world to sharpen their trail skills. But now with Nike in the game with OCG, they might incentive their athletes a little differently in the next couple years, so who knows.
Also, funny thing is that Jornet did run a road 10k in 2020 and it turns out he has the skill level of a hobby jogger . As far as trail runners go, Jornet is the tip of the spear. Looks like we are routinely seeing better ultra performances out of really road guys making the transition to the trails, than trail guys trying to run on the roads….
How many ultras have you ran that were longer than 10 hours? How many miles of technical downhill have you ran that is steeper than 15%. I don't think you know what you're talking about. Of course there is a very strong correlation between track/road and trail, but there are distinct skills as well. Just like being the best 100m runner doesn't make you the best long jumper or pole vaulter automatically.
And nobody said that Lebron wouldn't dominate the WNBA, you're just arguing with a strawman in your head.
Perhaps Kipchoge is a bad example by OP, but the broader point is still true: If there was any serious money in ultras, the craft beer drinking, lumberjack beard wearing, hippies who currently dominate the sport would get absolutely embarrassed by East Africans.
Sure, and if there was as much money in T&F as there is in football/soccer, then all of the Olympic champions would be different. Does that make you appreciate the current top athletes less? Such a weird argument...
