Hahahaha you're insane. The kid ran 142. In no world is he a better 400 runner. Do you not understand what 142 is? You're basically saying he should be a mid 43 guy. Faster than quincy wilson. A lot faster. A year ago his 142 would've been the american record. It's pretty obvious his best event is the 800 and it's not even close
You need to actually read the premise before throwing out the (unfounded) ad hominems that make you look silly.
I have. Under your premise he'll run 42.xx in the 400. Yea you're insane
I saw his post-USAs interview where he said in training, he's more of a 4/8 guy than an 8/15/16 guy.
He also said he went from a 100 or 150-meter kick to now feeling confident holding that speed for 200.
It's likely he gets at least slightly bigger and stronger.
His best open 400 is 46.3, and that was at the high school level when he was at 1:45 for the 800.
Even if he can go under 46 now, which doesn't seem crazy, I doubt he would have made the Worlds team this year in the open 400. But his ability in the 400 at 16 isn't so far away from his 800 ability to dismiss all possibility that it could at some point catch up.
What do you think very long-term? In six, seven, eight years from now, is there a world in which he becomes better at the 400 than the 800?
Note: His 46.3 was run out of lane 8 just an hour after his 1:47, in what I would describe as a hot and humid day. I don't think he ran any 400s in competition after that. I think he has the ability to excel in both events if he really wants to, but obviously he has exceeded everyone's expectations in the 800 - probably including himself. People need to keep reminding themselves he is just 16. I have been around him, and contrary to many of the posts, he does not look like someone in their 20s, he looks like a 16 year old teen - and is remarkable polite and respectful to everyone around him.
Yea it does. You're retarded. Go reread what you wrote and what it implies. His 800 is 43x equivalent... right now. Saying 400 will be his best means it must be better than his 800... so faster than 43x. Your premise implies you think he's running 42x
Hahahaha you're insane. The kid ran 142. In no world is he a better 400 runner. Do you not understand what 142 is? You're basically saying he should be a mid 43 guy. Faster than quincy wilson. A lot faster. A year ago his 142 would've been the american record. It's pretty obvious his best event is the 800 and it's not even close
You need to actually read the premise before throwing out the (unfounded) ad hominems that make you look silly.
I hate when people say stuff like this in online debates. The dude said “hahahaha you’re insane”—that’s pretty tame, practically polite for this forum. They probably read your premise and concluded you’re insane.
Also not a big fan of people saying “there’s a non-zero chance.” Just say “there’s a chance,” it’s the same thing.
Anyway, you seem to formulating your theory/hypothetical based on a weird conception of CL’s “body type.” For one, he’s built exactly like an 800m runner, but also use some common sense: he lost the 400 at his high school state meet, and he nearly won USAs in what would have been an 800m national record a year prior.
Whether it’s Brazier, Arop or Lutkenhaus, these discussions about what a supremely talented 800 guy could do at 400 or 1500 get a bit tedious. In all 3 of those cases you get half the people saying “they have 43 potential” and the other half saying “they have 3:28 potential,” when the truth is they probably have some combination of ~44-high and ~3:32 potential, which is why they’re mega talents in the 800. 44.90 would be the 50th fastest performer in the world this year; 3:32.50 would be the 50th fastest performer in the world this year. Arop, Brazier and Lutkenhaus are all top-6 in the world at 800 this year (and top-18 in world history).
Eh Brazier is one that I really do think has 3:28 potential. That said, he also has 1:41 potential (I would have said he had a remote chance at 1:40.xx if he hadn't gotten injured -- now he is a bit too old). 1:40-1 is definitely better than 3:28 so he's in the right event.
I saw his post-USAs interview where he said in training, he's more of a 4/8 guy than an 8/15/16 guy.
He also said he went from a 100 or 150-meter kick to now feeling confident holding that speed for 200.
It's likely he gets at least slightly bigger and stronger.
His best open 400 is 46.3, and that was at the high school level when he was at 1:45 for the 800.
Even if he can go under 46 now, which doesn't seem crazy, I doubt he would have made the Worlds team this year in the open 400. But his ability in the 400 at 16 isn't so far away from his 800 ability to dismiss all possibility that it could at some point catch up.
What do you think very long-term? In six, seven, eight years from now, is there a world in which he becomes better at the 400 than the 800?
Note: His 46.3 was run out of lane 8 just an hour after his 1:47, in what I would describe as a hot and humid day. I don't think he ran any 400s in competition after that. I think he has the ability to excel in both events if he really wants to, but obviously he has exceeded everyone's expectations in the 800 - probably including himself. People need to keep reminding themselves he is just 16. I have been around him, and contrary to many of the posts, he does not look like someone in their 20s, he looks like a 16 year old teen - and is remarkable polite and respectful to everyone around him.
Yes. It's impossible to say for sure what he'll be in his 20s. Just such a unique athlete that we maybe have never seen from any high school runner. He's in the convo at minimum already.
Yea it does. You're retarded. Go reread what you wrote and what it implies. His 800 is 43x equivalent... right now. Saying 400 will be his best means it must be better than his 800... so faster than 43x. Your premise implies you think he's running 42x
What are you, in middle school?
Supposing that there's a non-zero chance his 400 is stronger than his 800 in his 20s, which are still far way, does not equate to claiming "he will for sure run under 43 seconds."
You need to actually read the premise before throwing out the (unfounded) ad hominems that make you look silly.
I hate when people say stuff like this in online debates. The dude said “hahahaha you’re insane”—that’s pretty tame, practically polite for this forum. They probably read your premise and concluded you’re insane.
Also not a big fan of people saying “there’s a non-zero chance.” Just say “there’s a chance,” it’s the same thing.
Anyway, you seem to formulating your theory/hypothetical based on a weird conception of CL’s “body type.” For one, he’s built exactly like an 800m runner, but also use some common sense: he lost the 400 at his high school state meet, and he nearly won USAs in what would have been an 800m national record a year prior.
Calling someone a "ret*ard" doesn't show a lot of maturity, regardless of medium.
Non-zero chance is common lexicon in the predictive business. Worked in the sports betting business for several years, so it's normal for me.
Also, it's a bit odd to use his end-of-sophomore-year of high school as a somewhat singular datapoint to project what he'll be in 4-8 years from now.
My premise isn't and never was that it's "more likely" the 400 becomes his better event at some point. Just that the odds of it happening IMO -- years down the line -- are higher than many people have probably considered.
He ran the U18 WR as a 16 year old in the 800m. His best event is the 800m.
/thread
Agreed. That being said he might be a sub-45 guy by the end of HS. Emmanuel Korir was a 1:42.0/44pt guy too. Like Lutkenhaus he was a very good last 200 runner, and showed some natural endurance.
This post was edited 40 seconds after it was posted.
Your typical sophomore runner is going to drop a lot of time in the 400m by the end of senior year and we've seen plenty of great college 400m prospects continue to drop seconds in the 400m from hs to college. They will do this through physical maturation, weight work, plyometrics, technique, competition, and coaching. But if they are already among the best ever Americans in the 800m, then they are probably going to try to avoid gaining too much mass or focusing on the sprints, so they may not improve nearly as much at 400m. I can see him run 44 in a few years, but I don't think that any top 800m runners have broken 44 in an open race, not even El Caballo, so it's not something I would bet on right now.
What a dumb tread. OP makes a terrible take, everyone points out how terrible it is, and OP spends the next hour jumping through all sorts of hoops to defend it. Is there a "non-zero" chance the 400m becomes his better event? I guess, if you're really going by the strict definition of "non-zero". But it wont be so I don't see why this is even worth discussing. It's more worth your time to argue there is a non-zero chance of Jakob's best event being the tour de france.
Your typical sophomore runner is going to drop a lot of time in the 400m by the end of senior year and we've seen plenty of great college 400m prospects continue to drop seconds in the 400m from hs to college. They will do this through physical maturation, weight work, plyometrics, technique, competition, and coaching. But if they are already among the best ever Americans in the 800m, then they are probably going to try to avoid gaining too much mass or focusing on the sprints, so they may not improve nearly as much at 400m. I can see him run 44 in a few years, but I don't think that any top 800m runners have broken 44 in an open race, not even El Caballo, so it's not something I would bet on right now.
Lutkenhaus is the exact opposite of typical and if he put on mass, he would be slower at 400m. 44 speed wound probably take him down to 1:39.
I saw his post-USAs interview where he said in training, he's more of a 4/8 guy than an 8/15/16 guy.
He also said he went from a 100 or 150-meter kick to now feeling confident holding that speed for 200.
It's likely he gets at least slightly bigger and stronger.
His best open 400 is 46.3, and that was at the high school level when he was at 1:45 for the 800.
Even if he can go under 46 now, which doesn't seem crazy, I doubt he would have made the Worlds team this year in the open 400. But his ability in the 400 at 16 isn't so far away from his 800 ability to dismiss all possibility that it could at some point catch up.
What do you think very long-term? In six, seven, eight years from now, is there a world in which he becomes better at the 400 than the 800?
Interesting theory. Personally I think he must be a true marathoner and should quit the 800 ASAP and run the thon