If you want us to take you seriously and mark your words you need to specify a time until which you predict this will happen. Most people believe that something like that will happen regularly at some point in the future, the question is how soon do you claim it will happen.
I’ll say currently we might see one 1️⃣ run 1:40.2; there are limits.
This is a common sentiment, but truthfully there are no limits i.e. “1:40.2 is the limit of human performance.” There’s no inherent law that a man can’t run 800m in less than 100 seconds. You did say currently, so perhaps that’s not what you meant.
Eventually—the way things are trending—there will be a few 1:40-1:41 guys every year thanks in large part to advances in training, tech, shoes, tracks, hacks and drugs. Then you’re one exceptional talent away from 1:39.
Hell, it doesn't even have to be 4 men. It could be 3 men and 1 sixteen-year-old kid. The sub 1:40 barrier is going to get QUADRUPLE-SMASHED, and you can mark my words.
Can we get a time frame?
I'm updating the will and leaving insturctions for the inheritors of the site. I'm not sure I'm going to be here in the year 3065.
However, if it happens any time soon it would be such an outlier that the track, shoes, bicarb, and training wouldn't explain it (those are already baked into the cake for what guys are running).
Let's assume that anyone who could dream of it, among today's cast of runners, might already be "to the gills." If so, dropping the remaining time would require a new rocket fuel that would make EPO look like broccoli.
It’s going to happen. It will need to be a perfectly executed race, like 49.6, then 50.3. I’m not saying there aren’t yet undiscovered drugs out there or microdosing, but the shoes and bicarb are hella ergogenic training aids, possibly worth 2-3 seconds combined.
Also, the extremely talented 800m runners who rediscover Peter Snell’s training, including the 22-mile long runs, and are WILLING to do it will be able to maintain that endurance in the back half of the race.
If cooper hasn’t been using bicarb in workouts, that’s probably a half second over a year or two. Altitude, another half second - for a 4-8 guy that could be huge. Normal growth from 16-20 - who knows