I enjoyed reading Jonathan Gault's take on this topic. He put Hoey in the "Not great, but there's a chance" category, and he has Nuguse and Kessler in the "It could happen..." category.
Kessler feels like a stretch, but it’s highly correlated. He needs to do back to back top 3-4 finishes, and if he did that you’d feel differently than we do right now where we’re expecting him in maybe the 5th-10th range.
Kessler feels like a stretch, but it’s highly correlated. He needs to do back to back top 3-4 finishes, and if he did that you’d feel differently than we do right now where we’re expecting him in maybe the 5th-10th range.
Agreed. Gault pointed out that J. Koech could help Kessler. Gault wrote:
"Kessler’s odds of winning the final himself aren’t great, but he could also get in if US champ Jonah Koech wins the final. And that’s a possibility — Koech is 10th in the standings right now and could qualify if he runs well in Brussels next week (his agent told LetsRun Koech is training for that meet, but it’s still TBD whether he will run as he tends to his balky hamstring). Olympic champ Cole Hocker told LetsRun he will not race again before Worlds."
I enjoyed reading Jonathan Gault's take on this topic. He put Hoey in the "Not great, but there's a chance" category, and he has Nuguse and Kessler in the "It could happen..." category.
Kessler feels like a stretch, but it’s highly correlated. He needs to do back to back top 3-4 finishes, and if he did that you’d feel differently than we do right now where we’re expecting him in maybe the 5th-10th range.
I can't get this in the right spot. It has been pointed out that with 20 points he is in second place
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
It did not allow me to post normally, the Bold is mine, 26mi235
Kessler feels like a stretch, but it’s highly correlated. He needs to do back to back top 3-4 finishes, and if he did that you’d feel differently than we do right now where we’re expecting him in maybe the 5th-10th range.
I can't get this in the right spot. It has been pointed out that with 20 points he is in second place
Oh I was talking Kessler not Hoey. Hoey feels unlikely just because he is facing the best guys who are going to be in 1:41-low shape.
P. Koech is formidable, no doubt. His meteoric rise this year has been incredible. But he's not unbeatable. In Paris, P. Koech lost to Habz, who in turn lost to Nuguse in Eugene.
And let me remind you Yared MF Nuguse is:
2024 Olympic medalist
3-time Diamond League winner
the 4th fastest miler of all time
a man who has run under 3:30 5 times
a man with PBs of 1:44, 3:27, and 7:28
a champion at multiple levels in his career
Nuguse has everything that's needed to win in Zurich. He has extraordinary physical talents matched by his intelligence and character. He is in the prime of his career. He has the wisdom of experience. He has a comfort level with running in Zurich, from having won there each of the last two years.
And now Nuguse has something that makes him even more dangerous: desperation. His back is against the wall, knowing that he must win in Zurich to be able to compete in the world championships. Do not underestimate a man like him in that state! He is going to be ready, willing, and able to go deeper into his pain cave than possibly ever before.
P. Koech is formidable, no doubt. His meteoric rise this year has been incredible. But he's not unbeatable. In Paris, P. Koech lost to Habz, who in turn lost to Nuguse in Eugene.
And let me remind you Yared MF Nuguse is:
2024 Olympic medalist
3-time Diamond League winner
the 4th fastest miler of all time
a man who has run under 3:30 5 times
a man with PBs of 1:44, 3:27, and 7:28
a champion at multiple levels in his career
Nuguse has everything that's needed to win in Zurich. He has extraordinary physical talents matched by his intelligence and character. He is in the prime of his career. He has the wisdom of experience. He has a comfort level with running in Zurich, from having won there each of the last two years.
And now Nuguse has something that makes him even more dangerous: desperation. His back is against the wall, knowing that he must win in Zurich to be able to compete in the world championships. Do not underestimate a man like him in that state! He is going to be ready, willing, and able to go deeper into his pain cave than possibly ever before.
I believe in Yared Nuguse.
and 343 mile.
Goose will go back to basics and stop trying to emulate Jacob frontrunning, knowing he's not at that level as yet.
Hoey is running the 1500m at the Silesia meet, but he's entered in the 800m in Lausanne.
Makes sense to me from a coaching perspective. He's 2nd right now in the 800m DL points, so it's unlikely that 8 people pass him between now and Zurich. So his first race out of USAs will take some of the pressure off since it's not his main race distance (lowered expectations) and will allow him to get some of the frustration out of his USA's result while working on his strength in a slightly longer race. I like the decision. I wouldn't be surprised if he dips below 3:30 again, maybe bettering his PR from Ostrava if he's feeling good.
I didn't realize this until now, but Hoey actually has the fastest 1500 from a US athlete in 2025 so far:
Aren't you ashamed of comparing Nu_goose to Phanuel Koech? How many times or titles does Phanuel Koech have in comparison to nu_goose?
When did Phanuel Koech start running 1500M seniors as compared to Nu_goose
Your comparison is ambiguous... You can compare nu_goose to his fellow Olympic medalists whom he's raced frequently as compared to Koech!
We have to see more of Koech in a championship circumstance. He’s got a nice stride, a big engine and good instincts in these fast circuit races. But that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily look comfortable in rounds.
Aren't you ashamed of comparing Nu_goose to Phanuel Koech? How many times or titles does Phanuel Koech have in comparison to nu_goose?
When did Phanuel Koech start running 1500M seniors as compared to Nu_goose
Your comparison is ambiguous... You can compare nu_goose to his fellow Olympic medalists whom he's raced frequently as compared to Koech!
LOL. No, I am not ashamed for talking up Yared Nuguse. You disrespected him, and I reminded you who he is.
Phony-el, oops, I mean Phanuel, has been impressive this season. I gave him his due.
I don't think there's anything ambiguous about what I wrote, but I'm happy to restate my position more clearly and precisely: I believe Yared Nuguse can win the 1500m DL Final in Zurich.
After not finishing top 3 this weekend, Hoey and Nuguse now have the unenviable task of trying to gain a wild card entry to the world championships by winning the Diamond League. Who do you think has the better chance?
I think Nuguse will have a tough time winning. He doesn’t seem as good as last year. It might be due to not having a Jakob in setting a fast, economical race. He should try hanging back rather than pushing a fast pace, I don’t think he’ll get it right that way.
After not finishing top 3 this weekend, Hoey and Nuguse now have the unenviable task of trying to gain a wild card entry to the world championships by winning the Diamond League. Who do you think has the better chance?
P. Koech is formidable, no doubt. But he's not unbeatable. In Paris, P. Koech lost to Habz, who in turn lost to Nuguse in Eugene.
The flat reasoning.
A better criticism would have been countering with: P. Koech beat Kerr, who defeated Nuguse in the last two GST 1500m races. But my point that P. Koech isn't unbeatable still stands because, you know, he's been beaten.
Do you have any thoughts to contribute to the question posed in the title of this thread?
