In the 800 he has to go up against peak Wanyonyi, meaning a gold medal is very unlikely. It cannot be taken as a given that Hoey will be able to beat Arop, Sedjati, etc.
In the 1500 there is a bevy of 3:27 and 3:28 studs. These guys are probably all better than Hoey in a rabbited race, but Tokyo won't be rabbited. If it is slow, say 3:35, I like Hoey's chances a lot.
Why do you think Hoey is better in an unrabbited race that will likely be no slower than 3:31. If anything, Hoeys tactics and kick could in a 1500 could be a bit of a weakness/unknown. He’s actually really good in rabbited races or races where he goes out hard.
A 1:42.0/3:29 guy should be able to outkick 1:43/3:27 guys in a slow race. We saw a similar situation in Grand Slam when Wanyonyi outkicked Hocker et al. I don't know why you assume the race won't be slower than 3:31.
He doesn’t have a shot at making the team in the 1500. If you can’t get in to the world championships in the 1500, your chances of winning gold are zero.
A 1:42.0/3:29 guy should be able to outkick 1:43/3:27 guys in a slow race. We saw a similar situation in Grand Slam when Wanyonyi outkicked Hocker et al. I don't know why you assume the race won't be slower than 3:31.
I think this theory is limited. Wanyonyi’s performance was in a 3:35 race, and he simply has better speed than these guys in April. A slow race hasn’t happened since 2017, and with Jakob there I’m not sure I’d expect a shift. That’s especially true with so many guys comfortable leading nowadays. Hoey wouldn’t have a bad kick don’t get me wrong, but kicks are about conserving energy and top-end sprint. I’m unconvinced Hoey can conserve energy/position well enough in a championship 1500.
He doesn’t have a shot at making the team in the 1500. If you can’t get in to the world championships in the 1500, your chances of winning gold are zero.
I wouldn't choose him to make the 1500 team, but it's foolish to totally count out a 1:42/3.29 guy.
Why do you think Hoey is better in an unrabbited race that will likely be no slower than 3:31. If anything, Hoeys tactics and kick could in a 1500 could be a bit of a weakness/unknown. He’s actually really good in rabbited races or races where he goes out hard.
A 1:42.0/3:29 guy should be able to outkick 1:43/3:27 guys in a slow race. We saw a similar situation in Grand Slam when Wanyonyi outkicked Hocker et al. I don't know why you assume the race won't be slower than 3:31.
Except Hoey raced those guys in a tactical 1500 in grand slam track and they outkicked him
Naw. Hoey isn't likely to win either race, but he's more comfortable running 800. Very little tactics/positioning involved compared to the 15. Hoey has zero experience at championship racing over 1500. He'd get out of position, try to kick his way to the front on the last lap, and discover his 800 speed couldn't overcome bad positioning. No chance he can run both as the 800/1500 overlap at US Nationals.
Why do you think Hoey is better in an unrabbited race that will likely be no slower than 3:31. If anything, Hoeys tactics and kick could in a 1500 could be a bit of a weakness/unknown. He’s actually really good in rabbited races or races where he goes out hard.
A 1:42.0/3:29 guy should be able to outkick 1:43/3:27 guys in a slow race. We saw a similar situation in Grand Slam when Wanyonyi outkicked Hocker et al. I don't know why you assume the race won't be slower than 3:31.
No, people always think fast 800 time equals fast last lap kick in a 1500. It doesn't work that way at all. 800s are almost always positive split with the first lap the fastest. The 1500 is completely the opposite with the last lap the fastest. A faster 800 runner, Arop, couldn't outkick the 1500 guys in Grand Slam Track.
A "slow" race in the 1500m now is Hoey's PR. If the top 1500m guys run a 3:32 pace and kick to sub 3:30, they will all be closing the last 200m faster than Hoey. I give Hoey a 0% chance of out kicking Hocker in a 1500m race of any pace. And everybody else will be within hundredths of a second plus or minus of Hocker's last 200m.
Hoey just beat all of those fast 800m guys save one in Monaco. He now has the second-fastest time in the world this year. Hoey medaling in the 800m in Tokyo this year would not be shocking to me.
Nor would it surprise me or anyone else. The question I posed in the title is whether he has a better chance of winning a gold medal in the 800 or 1500.
Elliot Giles has said something like the 800m is easier to medal in but harder to make the final, while the 1500m is easier to make the final but harder to medal. I think the above sentiment was at least pretty accurate for the way that the 800m used to be run. I kind of see what you're saying but still think Hoey has a better chance of winning the 800m than winning the 1500m. Sometimes we see fast guys move up in distance and jump to thinking "if it's slow then they will have a great kick!" But when more strength is involved, that kick becomes a completely different skill set.
For example, I'm really rooting for Hocker to make the team in the 5k in addition to the 1500m. Is he a favorite in a slow 5k? Watch his Millrose 3k (outkicked by a guy with "less of a kick" in Grant Fisher) or his outdoor 5k races from last year. He hasn't demonstrated world class finishing speed in a 5k yet because 1500m kick ≠ 5k kick. Similarly, 800m speed ≠ 1500m kick.
OP has a good point. 1500 is very open but cant see Hoey beating Wanyonyi.
OP is wrong.
The only guys who have beaten Hoey at 800 this year are Wanyonyi, Arop, Sedjati, and Attaoui: 1-2-3-5 from Paris. Hoey beat all but 3 of those guys in his last race in Monaco, where he ran (slightly) faster than Attaoui’s PB. He’s ranked #4 in the world by World Athletics.
Kerr, Hocker, Kessler, Arop, Koech and Nader have beaten Hoey at 1500 between the two he’s run outdoors this year. Add Jakob, Nuguse, Laros, Habz, the Cheruiyots, and Wightman and the sheer number of guys he’d have to take down in the 1500 makes him less likely to win the 1500 than to get lucky in the 800.
There’s always a chance that for whatever reason Wanyonyi does not run well in the WC final or isn’t in the final at all. At that point you’re like 1-2 guys’ botched tactics away from a Hoey gold. Moreover, to win the gold you have to first make the team and make the final, and Hoey’s chances there are better in the 800 than the 1500.
In the 800 he has to go up against peak Wanyonyi, meaning a gold medal is very unlikely. It cannot be taken as a given that Hoey will be able to beat Arop, Sedjati, etc.
In the 1500 there is a bevy of 3:27 and 3:28 studs. These guys are probably all better than Hoey in a rabbited race, but Tokyo won't be rabbited. If it is slow, say 3:35, I like Hoey's chances a lot.
I don’t think it’s really gonna matter cause dudes on the sauce and will get a medal in whatever event he chooses. Hoping WADA and USADA are on their A games
WayonEPO is about 8x more juiced than the 1500m runners, so yeah, 0% chance of beating him unless he trips. He showed his EPO trck marks when he destroyed all the guys in the Grand Slam track meet. Not fair that he doesn't have out of competition tests and they do.
WayonEPO FTW! He could win the 800-5k, easily, all in the same day. All hail clean Kenya!