The weather forecast two days out is for sunny and about 78--probably a bit warmer than that down on the track. That's at the upper end of what could be considered optimal, but it was 85 when Jakob Ingebrigtsen set the 3000m world record, and given that they aren't running rounds in the heat, the temperature might be ideal. Wind will be key.
Heat doesn't really impact a 1500 in almost any case. as long as the athletes are able to stay in optimal conditions leading up to the race.
but what is the wind going to be?
Suprised so many people are doubtful of the chance at sub 3:44, when we have a guy who has done it, and we also just had 2 guys, who are not part of the big 4, crush a 3:27.
Ritz is just engaging in coach speak. He knows damn well that Nuguse is not going to get the mile world record. But he cannot say that. So he says something safe. I can respect that.
Does everyone agree with this? 19 upvotes to 0 downvotes? Nuguse broke the mile WR indoors this year, why would his coach write off the outdoor WR? The WR is 3:43.13 and Nuguse already ran 3:43 high at this meet 2 years ago. I get that we're still a month away from USAs, but this field is loaded, and random 18-31 year olds are already dropping 3:27s like there's no tomorrow. Plus Dathan said "they", so unless Yared became non-binary recently, he's saying it's possible that someone breaks the WR. Kessler, the guy who broke the WR behind Nuguse indoors, is in the race and in great form based on that 1k TT they just did. Plus Hocker, the guy who beat them both at the Olympics and ran 7:22i is in the race. Plus Habz, the 31 year old who just ran 3:27 is in the race. I think 3:44-45 is a far more likely winning time, but a WR isn't crazy talk at all.
You and I don’t appear to be living on the same planet. Your arguments leave me convinced that you have no idea what you’re talking about.
I also think the WR can happen because Nuguse has been showing signs that it's in range with his fitness. Not scientific but outdoor times seem to be faster. This could be the moment.
Ritz is just engaging in coach speak. He knows damn well that Nuguse is not going to get the mile world record. But he cannot say that. So he says something safe. I can respect that.
You never knw. WHEREABOUTS has Nuguse been training? Asking, because, well, people know but choose to ignore “mistakes” by certain people.
I think it wont go down unless Jakob is running. Have to have a rabbit split 245 at 1200 and a rabbitt wont make it past 1000m
Agree. They need pacing to at least 1K so they don’;t have to do the backstretch twice without pacers. If the pacer can last 1100-1200m at mile WR pace, that would be ideal, but anyone capable of that is either in the race, injured or ducking (Kerr)
I think it wont go down unless Jakob is running. Have to have a rabbit split 245 at 1200 and a rabbitt wont make it past 1000m
Agree. They need pacing to at least 1K so they don’;t have to do the backstretch twice without pacers. If the pacer can last 1100-1200m at mile WR pace, that would be ideal, but anyone capable of that is either in the race, injured or ducking (Kerr)
3:33/1500 - 3:53/miler Abe Alverado appears to be the pacer. Has been rabitting in Europe recently. Certainly capable of lasting 3 laps, especially following Wavelights.
Agree. They need pacing to at least 1K so they don’;t have to do the backstretch twice without pacers. If the pacer can last 1100-1200m at mile WR pace, that would be ideal, but anyone capable of that is either in the race, injured or ducking (Kerr)
It's possible that several capable people will have pacing at 3:45 pace through 1400. Someone with a good kick can break the WR off that pace.
The indoor one, yes. The outdoor one is a much bigger deal.
I believe Tony Waldorp held the indoor WR for the mile for a time with his 3:55.00 run in 1974. Tied by Bayi in 1975 and not broken for a few years
Bayi for some reason gets credited for an indoor record of 3:54.5 in 1980. Odd because that isn’t true. But ChatGPT spits out mistakes. Coghlan beat Bayi to run 3:52.6 in ‘79. In ‘78 Dick Buerkle defeated Bayi and set the indoor record of 3:54.93.