Can Cole Hocker or Yared Nuguse End the US Drought in the Bowerman Mile? Might The World Record Fall?

Nuguse's coach Dathan Ritzenhein said they are hoping for a pace of 1:50 through 800m

The 2025 Diamond League season has produced a number of very fun 1500-meter races. Jonah Koech‘s massive 6-second personal best to win in Rabat was one of the biggest upsets in Diamond League history, while Rome and Paris were two of the deepest races ever — Rome tied a record with 12 men under 3:32, only for Paris to go one better with 13. Paris was also just the fifth race in history to feature two sub-3:28s, and no one could have predicted at the start of the season that those two guys would be Azeddine Habz (3:27.49) and Phanuel Koech (3:27.72).

(LRC 3:27 Out of Nowhere? How 18-Year-Old Phanuel Koech Ran So Fast in the Paris 1500)

It’s all been quite entertaining, but it has been missing one thing: stars.

With all due respect to the likes of Koech, Habz, and Isaac Nader, these are not the guys that have made the men’s 1500 appointment viewing during the last three years. The three Olympic medalists from Paris Cole HockerJosh Kerr, and Yared Nuguse, have been busy racing Grand Slam Track. Jakob Ingebrigtsen has not raced at all this outdoor season due to injury. Even the 5th and 6th placers from Paris, young guns Hobbs Kessler and Niels Laros, have yet to run a Diamond League in 2025.

That star power will return to the Diamond League in July, starting with Saturday’s Prefontaine Classic. Hocker and Nuguse are the headliners in Eugene, joined by Kessler, Laros, and Habz. Add in former world champs Timothy Cheruiyot and Jake Wightman, 19-year-old Aussie Cameron Myers, and a couple of studs stepping down (American Grant Fisher) and up (Botswana’s Tshepiso Masalela) in distance, and the Bowerman Mile should be sensational once again. The two protagonists from last year’s instant classic are absent, but Kerr and Ingebrigtsen are scheduled to race each other in London on July 19. Presuming Ingebrigtsen is healthy enough to do so — he had to scratch Pre as he recovers from an Achilles injury.

It has been almost two decades since an American won the Bowerman Mile (Bernard Lagat in 2006) and more than two decades since a man born in America won it (Alan Webb in 2004), and with Hocker and Nuguse entered and Kerr and Ingebrigtsen absent, the US will not get many better shots than this to end that drought. With the reigning Olympic champion and bronze medalist racing on home soil, the atmosphere should be terrific. Let’s break down the race.

Meet details
What:
2025 Prefontaine Classic
When: Saturday, July 5 (Bowerman Mile at 5:32 p.m. ET)
Where: Hayward Field, Eugene, Ore.
*TV/streaming information *Schedule/entries

2025 Bowerman Mile entries

Name Country PB Note
Reynold Cheruiyot Kenya 3:48.06
Timothy Cheruiyot Kenya 3:49.06 2018/2019 Bowerman Mile champ, 2019 world champ
Grant Fisher USA 3:59.38 First mile since HS
Neil Gourley Great Britain 3:47.74 World indoor silver medallist was 4th in Phill 1500
Azeddine Habz France 3:48.64 Coming off 3:27.49 in Paris
Oliver Hoare Australia 3:47.48 Former CG champ was only 9th in Rome, 11th in Oslo
Cole Hocker USA 3:48.08 Olympic champ
Hobbs Kessler USA 3:46.90 US indoor champ
Abel Kipsang Kenya 3:50.87 4th globally in 2021 and 2023, 3:29 in Paris
Festus Lagat Kenya 3:52.63 Former 800 runner at Iowa St, was 4th in Paris in 3:29
Niels Laros Netherlands 3:48.93 3:29 last year in Olympic final at age 19
Tshepiso Masalela Botswana Debut 3:30 1500 pb; DL 800 wins in Doha & Rabat
Cameron Myers Australia 3:47.48 3:47 indoors in the mile at age 18 ain’t too bad.
Stefan Nillessen Netherlands 3:49.02 22-year-old ran 3:29 in Paris
Yared Nuguse USA 3:43.97 American record holder
Jake Wightman Great Britain 3:47.83 2022 world champ

***

The big boys are back

Hocker and Nuguse have combined to run six 1500-meter races during the 2025 outdoor season. They have combined to win precisely zero, and their best times (3:34.51 for Hocker, 3:34.65 for Nuguse) rank outside the top 100 for 2025.

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In a vacuum, that sounds alarming. But those races came against top, top competition at Grand Slam Track. The guys who beat them (Kerr and Emmanuel Wanyonyi) are complete studs, and with no pacers, the times were never going to be fast. Both men ran crazy fast indoors (3:46.63 world indoor mile record for Nuguse, 7:23.14 3k for Hocker), and both have run 800 pbs this spring (1:44.77 for Nuguse, 1:45.13 for Hocker). They’re fine.

But while Hocker and Nuguse have been busy slamming, the rest of the world has been running fast. We have already seen a record-tying 11 men under 3:30 this year — a group that does not yet include Hocker, Kerr, Nuguse, Kessler, or Laros. That means one of two things:

-The rest of the world has caught up to the best guys from last year
-The best guys from last year can run even faster when given the opportunity

I lean toward the second explanation. That is the way On Athletics Club coach Dathan Ritzenhein sees it, too. And yes, Ritzenhein coaches Nuguse, but he also coaches Olli Hoare (3:31.15 for 9th in Rome) and Robert Farken (3:30.80 German record for 4th in Rome). He acknowledged that there is always some shuffling of the deck from year to year, but expects that the guys who have consistently been at the top over the last few years, such as Nuguse, Ingebrigtsen, and Kerr, will show their quality as the season wears on.

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“I don’t think that it’s completely changed and those top guys aren’t the top guys anymore,” Ritzenhein said. “I think it’s just these opportunities, people are taking advantage of them. It’s a very deep event.”

We’ll learn more on Saturday. If Habz, who did not make last year’s Olympic final, can beat this field, they may need to clear a spot for him at the big boys’ table.

Habz is hardly the only man with something to prove. Can Kessler or Laros take the next step? Does 2022 world champ Jake Wightman, who turns 31 next week, have one last run in him this year?

Wightman was the winner of a 1000m time trial held earlier this week with Hobbs Kessler, Donavan Brazier and Neil Gourley in a quick 2:14 time: MB: Cool video: Kessler, Brazier, Wightman, and Gourley 1k time trial before Pre. Guess their time.

Can Hocker win his first Diamond League? The 24-year-old has won five US titles and Olympic gold but is 0-14 in non-championship 1500/miles as a pro — though he came very close to beating Kerr in his most recent race in Philadelphia. His old home track would be a great place to end that skid.

And can anyone threaten the world record?

Wait, really?

***

Is it crazy to think about a world record on Saturday?

If you are of the second opinion posited above, then it is not crazy to suggest that if the likes of Habz and Koech can run 3:27 for 1500m, the very best guys should be able to run 3:26. We already know Jakob can.

Ritzenhein said that watching Habz and Koech in Paris did not change what he thought Nuguse was capable of — but that is only because he already felt he was capable of running 3:26 if everything was set up for it.

“If Jakob and Yared could run a 3:43 [mile] together in the middle of the day in Eugene a couple of years ago, or Josh and Yared and Cole run 3:27 in the third round in Paris, I already thought those guys could run [3:26], they just haven’t yet,” Ritzenhein said. “But I think it will happen.”

And Ritzenhein made a prediction:

“I’m kind of assuming that the world record in the 1500 is going to go this year,” he said.

Jakob Ingebrigtsen edges Yared Nuguse at 2023 Pre Classic 1500 Ingebrigtsen and Nuguse both ran 3:43 in the 2023 Bowerman Mile (Kevin Morris photo)

If it does, it would erase the oldest men’s track world record from the books: Hicham El Guerrouj‘s 3:26.00 was set way back in 1998, before Nuguse, Hocker, and Ingebrigtsen were even born.

El Guerrouj’s 3:43.13 mile record, which is almost as old (1999), is slightly weaker comparatively — 3:26.00 converts to 3:42.52 using LRC’s “multiply by 1.0802” rule of thumb. 3:43.13 converts to 3:26.56 — a hair behind Ingebrigtsen’s 3:26.73 pb from last year. But if you work from the premise that Nuguse/Kerr/Hocker/Ingebrigtsen are roughly a second faster than Habz — a guy who has made one global final, ever — then they’re in the ballpark. And Nuguse and Ingebrigtsen have already run 3:43.

There are plenty of things working against a mile world record, though. There are fewer opportunities to chase it than the 1500. More importantly, there are fewer opportunities at the right time of year. Usually, the best time to run a fast 1500/mile is about a month out from Worlds/Olympics. Most years, that would be right around now — mid/early July. But Worlds this year aren’t until mid-September. The best guys are still ramping up.

Plus, the Paris 1500, where Habz ran 3:27, came in a race with near-perfect pacing, good weather, and an energetic crowd. The crowd should be into it at Pre, but weather is always a question mark at Hayward because of the persistent breeze on the back straight blowing in from the stadium’s open north end. Good pacing has been easier to engineer in the 2020s thanks to Wavelight, but to see a historically fast time at Pre, you still need someone to push that third lap. Any volunteers?

In Ingebrigtsen’s absence, Nuguse or Habz would be the most likely candidates. Pacing assignments won’t be decided upon until later in the week, but Ritzenhein is hoping it will be fast.

“We would like to see a pace like 1:50 through 800 meters at Pre, if it was up to us,” Ritzenhein said.

That is very aggressive — 1:50.0 is 3:41.28 mile pace, 1:50.5 is 3:42.29 — and Ritzenhein said he would expect the pace to slow over the second half. But he didn’t rule out a world record, either.

“I don’t expect him to go out and run 3:41, but I definitely think we can’t be afraid of that kind of pace,” Ritzenhein said. “I wouldn’t have thought they’d run 3:43 when it happened…Even without a Josh or a Jakob, the quality of the field is so good, it won’t shock me if they break [the world record].”

If an American does emerge with the world record, it will indeed be historic. No American has held the outdoor mile WR in over 50 years — since May 1975 when Jim Ryun lost his 3:51.1 mile WR to Filbert Bayi (3:51.0). Nuguse held the indoor record for five days in February before Ingebrigtsen broke it.

But Ritzenhein stressed that winning the race, not running fast, is priority #1 for Nuguse on Saturday. If Nuguse is up front pushing the pace, it is because he believes that is his best way to win.

“We had really hoped that Jakob was going to be there,” Ritzenhein said. “That was one of the biggest reasons for putting it on the schedule, was to race him once before Worlds…but there is no shortage of really good guys – Cole, Hobbs, Habz, all these guys who are running really fast. So it’s still a really good chance to see a lot of the guys he’s likely to see later at Worlds.”

***

Mike Scannell on Grant Fisher: “The idea is to be competitive in the mile. And if the mile is fast, then he will run fast.”

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If Hocker, Nuguse, and Kessler were not already enough star power for American fans, Olympic 5k/10k medalist Grant Fisher will also be dropping down to the mile at Prefontaine. It is an appearance rooted in practicality — as a Nike athlete, Fisher is expected to run Pre, and the mile was the longest event on the program when Fisher committed (though Pre subsequently added a 10,000). But it also represents something of a free hit for Fisher. Best-case, he surprises everyone and contends with some of the world’s best milers. Worst-case, he gets a shiny new mile pb. Fisher never raced the mile as a collegiate athlete and also never done it as a professional, which means his pb is still the 3:59.38 he ran as a high school senior in 2015.

Fisher has not raced in two months, scratching from his last race at Grand Slam Philadelphia in June after irritating his hamstring in the warmup. But if you watched Breaking4 last week, you saw Fisher there looking comfortable as Faith Kipyegon‘s wingman. His coach Mike Scannell told LetsRun.com that Fisher has been “firing on all cylinders” for the last two weeks.

“The injury wasn’t very bad, but his trust in his leg wasn’t very good and so he bailed on that race [in Philadelphia], which was a great decision,” Scannell said. “It was about two weeks of getting work on it and PT and everything else before it was responding full-time again.”

Scannell can usually pinpoint how fast Fisher will run in a race within a second or two, but because they do not train for the mile specifically, he said he is flying blind for this one. Back in February, Fisher ran 3:33.99 for 1500 (roughly 3:50 for the mile) six days before setting his world record in the 3,000. A time well under 3:50 would not come as a shock, but Scannell said he is not focused on the clock.

“The idea is to be competitive in the mile,” Scannell said. “And if the mile is fast, then he will run fast.”

All of that being said, Fisher does have the slowest mile pb of anyone in the field and it led to a wild thought on the messageboard: Pre Classic – Will Grant Fisher finish DFL in Bowerman mile?

This will be Fisher’s last race before USAs at the end of the month, where he will face emerging stars Nico Young and Graham Blanks. Scannell said he is excited for the challenge after both of them ran fast in Europe last month.

“I think [those results were] great for American distance running in general,” Scannell said. “I think it will help everybody run faster, including Grant. I hope they hold that [level] through USAs.”

***

JG prediction

If you ask me to choose between Nuguse and Hocker at Worlds this year, I’m picking Hocker. But for this race specifically, I’m rolling with Nuguse FTW (no WR, though). Last year, Hocker was a distant 7th at Pre before ramping up his fitness significantly for championship season. So I’m hesitant to pick him in a fast race at this point in the season, particularly over Nuguse, who is typically in great shape all year long.

Of course, Hocker did beat Nuguse in their last matchup in Philadelphia, a rare bad race for Nuguse, who finished 6th. But after a month to lock in on training at altitude in Boulder, I like his chances to win here over Hocker and Habz, who will have had to travel across nine time zones to get to Eugene.

Who wins the 2025 Bowerman Mile?

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***

International Mile brings intrigue

While the Bowerman Mile is not quite as strong as last year’s race, this year’s B race at Pre — the International Mile, held at 3:51 p.m. ET, shortly before the NBC window — may be the best B race in meet history. NCAA champ Nathan Green is absent, but this race has a nice mix of pros (Vincent CiatteiLuke Houser), collegians (Ethan StrandAdam SpencerGary MartinSimeon Birnbaum), and high schoolers (Owen Powell, 16-year-old Kiwi Sam Ruthe). Many of the guys here will be in the US final, and the winner here will come away thinking they have a real chance at one of the spots on the US 1500 team that Hocker, Nuguse, and Kessler earned last year.

Might Alan Webb’s 3:53 HS record time go down to Powell? MB: Owen Powell in the International Men’s Mile at Pre – Does he break Webb’s Record of 3:53.41?

2025 International Mile entries

Name Country PB Note
Simeon Birnbaum USA 3:52.81 7th at NCAAs
Vincent Ciattei USA 3:49.37 4th at 2024 Olympic Trials
Elliott Cook USA 3:55.34 2nd at 2024 NCAAs
Luke Houser USA 3:51.14 3rd at World Indoors
Gary Martin USA 3:48.82 5th at NCAAs
Aidan McCarthy USA 3:52.83 5th in 800 at NCAAs
Wes Porter USA 3:54.58
Owen Powell USA 3:56.66 HS indoor mile record holder
Sam Prakel USA 3:50.94 9th at World Indoors
Sam Ruthe New Zealand 3:58.35 Became youngest sub-4:00 miler in history in March
Adam Spencer Australia 3:52.70 4th at NCAAs
Ethan Strand USA 3:48.32 2nd at NCAAs
Flavien Szot France 3:52.67 Just ran 3:30 at Paris DL
Sam Tanner New Zealand 3:49.51 2-time Olympian was only 8th in Stockholm, 14th in Ostrava
Cooper Teare USA 3:50.17 Former US champion

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