"Mercer Island coach Susan Empey thinks Powell can break Webb’s record, so much so that she’s cutting short a dream vacation this week in Italy to get back in time to watch it unfold in Eugene."
Hell No! Lukenhaus schooled him and he had people who could have dragged him to 3:35 in the 1500 he ran. He ran great both times, but not Alan Webb great.
How does Lutkenhaus beating him by a few tenths of a second in the 800m have anything to do with his projected performance in the mile? You didn't even mention times. What is this logic?
That 1:46 was crazy, and his 3:36 converts basically spot on to Webb’s record. I think he breaks it, finishing somewhere between Webb’s record and Kessler’s converted record (3:51).
"Mercer Island coach Susan Empey thinks Powell can break Webb’s record, so much so that she’s cutting short a dream vacation this week in Italy to get back in time to watch it unfold in Eugene."
8:48i (closed hard the last mile from what I remember)
Powell:
1:46.63
3:56i
8:38 (run solo after a 1600 and 800)
However, I feel that this represents an incomplete picture of Webb. He had at least 1 sub-4 1600 DMR leg that spring, a 47.7 4x400 leg at his state meet, at least one 1:49 4x800 leg and a 4:01 mile at Arcadia, back when those times were all FAST. He was beating the wheels off the best runners in the nation, and given his XC pedigree, I have to imagine he could have run into the low 8:30s had he actually taken a serious swing at the event.
That said, Powell is a heck of a talent. I think he has a 3:52 in him - that 1:46.6 told me everything I really need to know. The bigger question is if he can execute properly on Saturday, which i'm not quite sure of. He's racing some damn good people, and I question if he has the ability to balance the possibility of a fast pace with the potential for a tactical race - if he goes out in 60 point, that kinda sinks any record attempt. Despite the maturity he has shown, he is after all, still a high schooler.
Records are absolute numbers, but the historical context should be considered. Shoes, tracks, supplements, have changed the meaning of race times significantly in the last 10 years.
Webb's record was faster, but Ryun's performance was better in a historical context. Ryun won the AAU nationals, beating WR holder Snell with his 3:55 and was less than 2sec from the WR. Ryun was top tier world class in HS. Webb was 2nd tier world class with that performance (5th in race, 3.5sec behind winner and world leader for the year, ~10sec from WR).
Powell may break Webb's record, but to be equivalent to Webb, he needs to be in the top 6 runners and probably around 3:50. To match Ryun, he needs a 3:46 or better and the win.
However, if Powell gets the record, he owns the record regardless of historical context. Good luck to him.
"Mercer Island coach Susan Empey thinks Powell can break Webb’s record, so much so that she’s cutting short a dream vacation this week in Italy to get back in time to watch it unfold in Eugene."
Hell No! Lukenhaus schooled him and he had people who could have dragged him to 3:35 in the 1500 he ran. He ran great both times, but not Alan Webb great.
How does Lutkenhaus beating him by a few tenths of a second in the 800m have anything to do with his projected performance in the mile? You didn't even mention times. What is this logic?
In both races he had runners finish ahead of him. He could have been pulled faster in both races, but he ran what he had in him. You can argue that he has trained hard for the last 3 weeks and will be ready to run at the 3:35 pace required. I just was disappointed that he did not win that 1500, but less so about the 1:46 since that is not his wheelhouse. Elite guys shooting for records in B races should in general be winning them. It does not bode well for him running under Webb's record. It actually depends on who Maurica and Andy have had him training with for the time since his last 2 races after the high school season ended. If he has been running with the UW 1500 runners maybe he will break it. I might have to eat crow, but I do not think it makes him better than the great Alan Webb.
How does Lutkenhaus beating him by a few tenths of a second in the 800m have anything to do with his projected performance in the mile? You didn't even mention times. What is this logic?
In both races he had runners finish ahead of him. He could have been pulled faster in both races, but he ran what he had in him. You can argue that he has trained hard for the last 3 weeks and will be ready to run at the 3:35 pace required. I just was disappointed that he did not win that 1500, but less so about the 1:46 since that is not his wheelhouse. Elite guys shooting for records in B races should in general be winning them. It does not bode well for him running under Webb's record. It actually depends on who Maurica and Andy have had him training with for the time since his last 2 races after the high school season ended. If he has been running with the UW 1500 runners maybe he will break it. I might have to eat crow, but I do not think it makes him better than the great Alan Webb.
There's a part of me that thinks that Sam Prakel is entered in the international mile to serve as a pacer/blocker for Owen, only because he's the longest tenured member of Andy Powell's pro group?
