It's 100% not any more than Josh Kerr's 1:50 stinker from GST is an indication of his speed. And it's not like Kerr's 1:45 is burning up the track even for a 1500 guy. These two guys are very similar runners. Both rely on their strength. The difference is in how they run the race.
Yes. Jakob doesn’t back his kick waiting until 200 to go we’ve seen that. But the dumbest thing he can do is allow his competitors to run in a straight line near exactly 1500 meters by rabbiting it all out. Like El Guerrouj in 2004 go from some distance out (probably 700-900m) and squeeze the pace. 5-6 guys will jockey for coveted position and impatience will kill some off. Someone might even go by and miscalculate it, so Jakob can outkick them. He’s not a terrible kicker in a 3:28-3:31 race, I really don’t believe that.
I’d argue he’s not a terrible kicker in any context. I don’t recall the exact race, but during one of the rounds this indoor season he threw in a 12.6 to get position. That seems pretty good for a guy who supposedly has no change of pace and would be left in the dust in a more tactical affair.
You’re 100% correct that the dumbest thing he can do is what he’s done the last 3 years. It puts him at a huge disadvantage for no reason.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
The same strategy that was his best chance to win in Paris.
At some in the race between 1000 and 900 meters out he needs to turn the pace up as close to his threshold as possible and maintain that to the finish. He's the guy with the best threshold at that speed and the most strength.
In all these championship finals he's now lost over the distance the one common theme is that at some point in the final 1000m he backed off/was forced to back off that pace and it allowed the guys with better anaerobic power than him (Wightman, Kerr, Hocker) all were able to recover just enough in-race and then roll him at the finish. Paris in particular he covertly hurt himself so much in that opening 200/400 that even Nuguse was able to comfortably pass him in that final 80m and he's rarely looked so fatigued up the home straight as he was that day. I think that maintaining 55.5-56.0 pace right from the gun for all 1500m is just too difficult for him without wavelight and pace help. I've seen enough of these finals now to be quite confident in saying that's beyond even his incredible ability.
I think he needs to be able to run 2.18.0 for the final 1000m off something like a 72 second opening 500m (57.5/14.5). Run that final 1000m in 56.0, 55.0, 27.0 - in that ballpark. Winning time in the low 3.30's.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Well the problem is he's not going early enough. He tried going from 3 laps and that failed. So he tried going from 3.6 laps and that failed. He needs to sprint hard from the gun and build an immediate gap so that
A) He asserts dominance
and
B) None of the p@ssy-footers behind him can benefit from his draft
He really needs to learn from cycling. Make that break, stick to it, laugh in your competitors' faces.
Habz can follow him at any pace if he keep his current fitness and he is a runner that come cross country and long distances and run under 1:44 in the 800m two times (in 2023 and 2024).
Well the problem is he's not going early enough. He tried going from 3 laps and that failed. So he tried going from 3.6 laps and that failed. He needs to sprint hard from the gun and build an immediate gap so that
A) He asserts dominance
and
B) None of the p@ssy-footers behind him can benefit from his draft
He really needs to learn from cycling. Make that break, stick to it, laugh in your competitors' faces.
Well the problem is he's not going early enough. He tried going from 3 laps and that failed. So he tried going from 3.6 laps and that failed. He needs to sprint hard from the gun and build an immediate gap so that
A) He asserts dominance
and
B) None of the p@ssy-footers behind him can benefit from his draft
He really needs to learn from cycling. Make that break, stick to it, laugh in your competitors' faces.
But he did this in Paris and it cooked him in the final 150m - and that was only a 54.9 opening lap? The absolute worst thing Jakob could do is sprint from the gun - his physiology isn't suited to doing that.
How fast you think he needs to go? 54.0? 53.5? I genuinely interested in the logic of this idea because I've never heard someone say he needs to sprint hard from the gun, but it needs more explaining why it will work.
Habz can follow him at any pace if he keep his current fitness and he is a runner that come cross country and long distances and run under 1:44 in the 800m two times (in 2023 and 2024).
Well the problem is he's not going early enough. He tried going from 3 laps and that failed. So he tried going from 3.6 laps and that failed. He needs to sprint hard from the gun and build an immediate gap so that
A) He asserts dominance
and
B) None of the p@ssy-footers behind him can benefit from his draft
He really needs to learn from cycling. Make that break, stick to it, laugh in your competitors' faces.
Well the problem is he's not going early enough. He tried going from 3 laps and that failed. So he tried going from 3.6 laps and that failed. He needs to sprint hard from the gun and build an immediate gap so that
A) He asserts dominance
and
B) None of the p@ssy-footers behind him can benefit from his draft
He really needs to learn from cycling. Make that break, stick to it, laugh in your competitors' faces.
But he did this in Paris and it cooked him in the final 150m - and that was only a 54.9 opening lap? The absolute worst thing Jakob could do is sprint from the gun - his physiology isn't suited to doing that.
How fast you think he needs to go? 54.0? 53.5? I genuinely interested in the logic of this idea because I've never heard someone say he needs to sprint hard from the gun, but it needs more explaining why it will work.
11.5s 1st 100m. Rest of the field is racing for 2nd from there.
But he did this in Paris and it cooked him in the final 150m - and that was only a 54.9 opening lap? The absolute worst thing Jakob could do is sprint from the gun - his physiology isn't suited to doing that.
How fast you think he needs to go? 54.0? 53.5? I genuinely interested in the logic of this idea because I've never heard someone say he needs to sprint hard from the gun, but it needs more explaining why it will work.
11.5s 1st 100m. Rest of the field is racing for 2nd from there.
He could push 11.3 if they let him start in blocks, but have to play by the rules.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
The same strategy that was his best chance to win in Paris.
At some in the race between 1000 and 900 meters out he needs to turn the pace up as close to his threshold as possible and maintain that to the finish. He's the guy with the best threshold at that speed and the most strength.
In all these championship finals he's now lost over the distance the one common theme is that at some point in the final 1000m he backed off/was forced to back off that pace and it allowed the guys with better anaerobic power than him (Wightman, Kerr, Hocker) all were able to recover just enough in-race and then roll him at the finish. Paris in particular he covertly hurt himself so much in that opening 200/400 that even Nuguse was able to comfortably pass him in that final 80m and he's rarely looked so fatigued up the home straight as he was that day. I think that maintaining 55.5-56.0 pace right from the gun for all 1500m is just too difficult for him without wavelight and pace help. I've seen enough of these finals now to be quite confident in saying that's beyond even his incredible ability.
I think he needs to be able to run 2.18.0 for the final 1000m off something like a 72 second opening 500m (57.5/14.5). Run that final 1000m in 56.0, 55.0, 27.0 - in that ballpark. Winning time in the low 3.30's.
Yes. Originally, I was convinced that he could win "easily" by running like his time trial in Monaco (56 - 55.4 - 55.2 - 40 high) and he would win that way. The guys behind him can't muster a fast enough final 300m if they have to run the middle 800 in 1:50. However, after that Habz 3:27, I'm not even convinced this would work either. He has to employ a strategy that allows his final 100m to be in the low 13's with a fast final K and just hope nobody has enough power to challenge him on the bend. Seems unlikely he'll ever win again though. If he doesn't win this year, he should look into the 10000m and atleast complete a double there + 5000m.
Yes. Originally, I was convinced that he could win "easily" by running like his time trial in Monaco (56 - 55.4 - 55.2 - 40 high) and he would win that way. The guys behind him can't muster a fast enough final 300m if they have to run the middle 800 in 1:50. However, after that Habz 3:27, I'm not even convinced this would work either. He has to employ a strategy that allows his final 100m to be in the low 13's with a fast final K and just hope nobody has enough power to challenge him on the bend. Seems unlikely he'll ever win again though. If he doesn't win this year, he should look into the 10000m and atleast complete a double there + 5000m.
Yeah right now I'm still confident he is going to be in Tokyo and is going to be racing the 1500, but it is starting to feel a little El G '04/Morceli '96'ish in that this could be the window closing for him in terms of championship 1500m running. Some people might say "but he's only 25" (he turns 25 before the end of these champs) and "Kerr is 27 and still in form" but the reality is Jakob has just done much more competing at an elite level over the last 3-4 seasons (apart from this one because of injury) and unlike Kerr who looks set to be a 1500m specialist until he retires, Jakob by his own admission and actions has even more ambitions over the 5000m and maybe above. I think his body is also starting to show signs of how much stress he puts it under (b2b achilles injuries last two season that are increasing in seriousness) - that also sucks when you think about his 1500/mile WR aspirations too.
The same strategy that was his best chance to win in Paris.
At some in the race between 1000 and 900 meters out he needs to turn the pace up as close to his threshold as possible and maintain that to the finish. He's the guy with the best threshold at that speed and the most strength.
In all these championship finals he's now lost over the distance the one common theme is that at some point in the final 1000m he backed off/was forced to back off that pace and it allowed the guys with better anaerobic power than him (Wightman, Kerr, Hocker) all were able to recover just enough in-race and then roll him at the finish. Paris in particular he covertly hurt himself so much in that opening 200/400 that even Nuguse was able to comfortably pass him in that final 80m and he's rarely looked so fatigued up the home straight as he was that day. I think that maintaining 55.5-56.0 pace right from the gun for all 1500m is just too difficult for him without wavelight and pace help. I've seen enough of these finals now to be quite confident in saying that's beyond even his incredible ability.
I think he needs to be able to run 2.18.0 for the final 1000m off something like a 72 second opening 500m (57.5/14.5). Run that final 1000m in 56.0, 55.0, 27.0 - in that ballpark. Winning time in the low 3.30's.
Yes. Originally, I was convinced that he could win "easily" by running like his time trial in Monaco (56 - 55.4 - 55.2 - 40 high) and he would win that way. The guys behind him can't muster a fast enough final 300m if they have to run the middle 800 in 1:50. However, after that Habz 3:27, I'm not even convinced this would work either. He has to employ a strategy that allows his final 100m to be in the low 13's with a fast final K and just hope nobody has enough power to challenge him on the bend. Seems unlikely he'll ever win again though. If he doesn't win this year, he should look into the 10000m and atleast complete a double there + 5000m.
Yes. Originally, I was convinced that he could win "easily" by running like his time trial in Monaco (56 - 55.4 - 55.2 - 40 high) and he would win that way. The guys behind him can't muster a fast enough final 300m if they have to run the middle 800 in 1:50. However, after that Habz 3:27, I'm not even convinced this would work either. He has to employ a strategy that allows his final 100m to be in the low 13's with a fast final K and just hope nobody has enough power to challenge him on the bend. Seems unlikely he'll ever win again though. If he doesn't win this year, he should look into the 10000m and atleast complete a double there + 5000m.
Yeah right now I'm still confident he is going to be in Tokyo and is going to be racing the 1500, but it is starting to feel a little El G '04/Morceli '96'ish in that this could be the window closing for him in terms of championship 1500m running. Some people might say "but he's only 25" (he turns 25 before the end of these champs) and "Kerr is 27 and still in form" but the reality is Jakob has just done much more competing at an elite level over the last 3-4 seasons (apart from this one because of injury) and unlike Kerr who looks set to be a 1500m specialist until he retires, Jakob by his own admission and actions has even more ambitions over the 5000m and maybe above. I think his body is also starting to show signs of how much stress he puts it under (b2b achilles injuries last two season that are increasing in seriousness) - that also sucks when you think about his 1500/mile WR aspirations too.
Jakob’s made it clear he’s sticking with the 1500m through LA ’28, which some might call crazy, but the dude loves the event, and it’s hard to blame him. But what most folks sleep on is how freaking sharp Jakob is tactically when he wants to be. Rewatch the 2023 5000m—guy was sick as a dog, but his positioning and moves in the last laps was sick. With it also one of the most perfectly timed kick I have ever seen.
Henrik said it best right after: “That race showed all his tactical tricks he doesn’t usually need.” If you guys dig into Jakob’s early races, and you’ll see more of that crafty side.
Lately, though, his ego’s been tripping him up. He knows he’s the fittest guy out there and wants to flex by leading wire-to-wire, but that ain’t cutting it anymore—the field’s too tight. With Habz dropping a shady 3:27 PR out of nowhere, and that “18-year-old” Kenyan kid supposedly coming from obscurity to match it, Jakob’s gotta know he can’t just outrun everyone like Cheruiyot did in ’19.
My bet: Jakob dials in, races smarter, and leans on his tactical chops. If he’s on point in London and Silesia, he’s still the guy to beat in Tokyo, but it’s gonna be a dogfight with this stacked (and sketchy) field.
Injury-wise, it’s a relief that his latest Achilles tweak was on the other foot from last winter’s. Same foot would’ve screamed chronic issue, but this seems like a minor hiccup. He’s already back to near-full training, which shows he played it smart and didn’t push it.
I’m hyped for London—maybe we'll see something like last year’s Pre Classic?
His best strategy is to turn the tables by sitting and kicking just like the guys that have recently beaten him. He needs to learn to trust his finishing speed. He will have plenty if he doesn't waste energy trying to pace the field.
If his 1:46.6 is legit indication of his leg speed, or close to it, he has zero chance of winning with a sit and kick. He can’t learn to trust something that doesn’t exist.
There are threads with dozens of pages dedicated to this topic. I'm astonished this is still even being brought up.
Yeah right now I'm still confident he is going to be in Tokyo and is going to be racing the 1500, but it is starting to feel a little El G '04/Morceli '96'ish in that this could be the window closing for him in terms of championship 1500m running. Some people might say "but he's only 25" (he turns 25 before the end of these champs) and "Kerr is 27 and still in form" but the reality is Jakob has just done much more competing at an elite level over the last 3-4 seasons (apart from this one because of injury) and unlike Kerr who looks set to be a 1500m specialist until he retires, Jakob by his own admission and actions has even more ambitions over the 5000m and maybe above. I think his body is also starting to show signs of how much stress he puts it under (b2b achilles injuries last two season that are increasing in seriousness) - that also sucks when you think about his 1500/mile WR aspirations too.
Jakob’s made it clear he’s sticking with the 1500m through LA ’28, which some might call crazy, but the dude loves the event, and it’s hard to blame him. But what most folks sleep on is how freaking sharp Jakob is tactically when he wants to be. Rewatch the 2023 5000m—guy was sick as a dog, but his positioning and moves in the last laps was sick. With it also one of the most perfectly timed kick I have ever seen.
Henrik said it best right after: “That race showed all his tactical tricks he doesn’t usually need.” If you guys dig into Jakob’s early races, and you’ll see more of that crafty side.
Lately, though, his ego’s been tripping him up. He knows he’s the fittest guy out there and wants to flex by leading wire-to-wire, but that ain’t cutting it anymore—the field’s too tight. With Habz dropping a shady 3:27 PR out of nowhere, and that “18-year-old” Kenyan kid supposedly coming from obscurity to match it, Jakob’s gotta know he can’t just outrun everyone like Cheruiyot did in ’19.
My bet: Jakob dials in, races smarter, and leans on his tactical chops. If he’s on point in London and Silesia, he’s still the guy to beat in Tokyo, but it’s gonna be a dogfight with this stacked (and sketchy) field.
Injury-wise, it’s a relief that his latest Achilles tweak was on the other foot from last winter’s. Same foot would’ve screamed chronic issue, but this seems like a minor hiccup. He’s already back to near-full training, which shows he played it smart and didn’t push it.
I’m hyped for London—maybe we'll see something like last year’s Pre Classic?
“Jakob dials in, races smarter, and leans on his tactical chops…”
As far as advice goes, that couldn’t be worse. Just that one sentence contains three components that have no meaning. Are going to text it to him, anyway?