5000 WR is not happening in Oslo

John Wesley Harding wrote:

snowflakes wrote:

There is simply no way that Jakob goes through 3000m in 7:36 with clean even splits that he isn’t capable of going under 4:59 for the final 2000m. It is only a question of when he runs 12:30.

This has 14 to 1 upvotes/downvotes? 12:30 is an insane time, definitely better than 7:17. I’m not gonna be too bullish in saying he’ll never do it, but I don’t think he will. It’s like the logic here is: 7:54 and 7:17 were stunning times, what would be equally stunning for 5000? But 12:35.36 is better than 7:58 or 7:20.67, and Jakob is likely better at 3k/2 mile than he is at 5k.

I agree that 12:35.36 has probably been undervalued in recent years, though it’s fairly likely to go down in the next 5 years (by a second or two, most likely). Hard to see it going down in Oslo unless Yomif has had an unreal stretch of training; I’d think Aregawi is more likely to break it and he’s not in the race. Hagos did run 12:36.73 with a big last lap last year, but it’s just hard to believe a guy who ran 12:47 in 2012 can just keep PRing.

Also, agree with the above poster that Jakob doesn’t need to work his way down to record level with a series of fast 5ks, like Salvitore Stitchmo likes to say every time this subject comes up.

objectiveobserver wrote:

Fan Out West[] wrote:

Try this perspective:

Jakob's 7:54.10/2-mile WR averages 3:57/mile.

This is where the guessing starts.

Believe no one currently alive could run back-to-back-to-back 4-flat miles for a 12:00/3-mile.

However, could Jakob or someone else -- at peak fitness -- average 4:02/mile to split 12:06 at the 3-mile mark?

Then, adding another 26 seconds for the remaining 172 meters (60 sec/400 pace), run 12:32 for 5000?

These simple calculations put Cheptegei's 12:35 in perspective; he effectively averaged 4:03/mile.

If you think someone running today could break 12:30, then you believe that someone can run 3 consecutive miles in 4:01 each.

For my money, we first need to see the 2-mile WR get down to 7:50, or the 3000 WR drop to 7:15, for that to happen.

It is wrong to make his 2 miles WB the starting point since the 3000m relatively is much better:

7:17 mid equals a 7:51 mid in the 2 miles. 7:15 in the 3000m equals a sub 7:49 in the 2 miles.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

snowflakes wrote:

There is simply no way that Jakob goes through 3000m in 7:36 with clean even splits that he isn’t capable of going under 4:59 for the final 2000m. It is only a question of when he runs 12:30.

This has 14 to 1 upvotes/downvotes? 12:30 is an insane time, definitely better than 7:17. I’m not gonna be too bullish in saying he’ll never do it, but I don’t think he will. It’s like the logic here is: 7:54 and 7:17 were stunning times, what would be equally stunning for 5000? But 12:35.36 is better than 7:58 or 7:20.67, and Jakob is likely better at 3k/2 mile than he is at 5k.

I agree that 12:35.36 has probably been undervalued in recent years, though it’s fairly likely to go down in the next 5 years (by a second or two, most likely). Hard to see it going down in Oslo unless Yomif has had an unreal stretch of training; I’d think Aregawi is more likely to break it and he’s not in the race. Hagos did run 12:36.73 with a big last lap last year, but it’s just hard to believe a guy who ran 12:47 in 2012 can just keep PRing.

Also, agree with the above poster that Jakob doesn’t need to work his way down to record level with a series of fast 5ks, like Salvitore Stitchmo likes to say every time this subject comes up.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Actually you’re right, I should not have said that 12:30 is definitely better than 7:17. Looks like World Athletics puts 7:17.55 as equal to 12:30.68. Of course, those points values are fluid and inexact, and there’s the question of whether Jakob is as amazing in a 5k time trial as a 3k time trial, but the times are in the same ballpark.

I never thought that 7:20.67 was the strongest WR, and argued many times that quite a few guys were capable of 7:20-7:23. Certainly now in the super shoe era, 7:20.67 has been brought down to earth not only by Jakob’s 7:17.55 but Aregawi 7:21, Fisher 7:22, Hocker 7:23, Girma 7:23, Kejelcha 7:23 in a race that came down to a (54) last lap kick…

Posters saying that he can split 7:35 at 3k and run the last 2k in 4:55-4:57 could be right, but we need to appreciate how hard that is. That’s still 3k on 12:39 pace and then 2k at ~7:23 3k pace…I’m not sure Jakob can do that. Running 12:30.5 is 2:30.1/K, which is 4.25 seconds slower than his 2:25.85/K pace in the 7:17.55, which is a fairly tight margin for someone who might be better at 2k/3k than 5k; it’s like a 7:30.0 guy running 12:50.75, or a 7:24.0 guy running 12:40.75, or a 7:36.0 guy running 13:00.75–possible for long distance oriented guys, but not a given!

All I’m arguing really is that Jakob running 12:30 for 5k is more than “just a question of when.” It’s still an incredible time, and if Jakob is capable of it a lot of things have to go right for him; we shouldn’t take it for granted.

Rubio wrote:

snowflakes wrote:

There is simply no way that Jakob goes through 3000m in 7:36 with clean even splits that he isn’t capable of going under 4:59 for the final 2000m. It is only a question of when he runs 12:30.

I know and understand what numbers suggest.

Just two equally strong arguments for you to consider:

1. Roughly a second and a half off Chep's WR happened in THE best 5000 race ever. The equivalent of the 800 2012 Olympics finals. One of a kind.

2. The previous WR belongs to some dude named Bekele. Yes, super spikes. Yes, Mondo tracks. Yes, wavelights.

Still. Do you think shaving about 7.5 seconds from Bekele's best 5000 is a done deal?

Oh, and #3. When JI goes for it, at the very least, he will run about 4 laps by himself. Chep did 5. Do you understand how hard is to grind that solo?

And, again, I believe JI will do it. But no, he's not running 12:30. Not 12:32 either. And no matter what IAAF scoretables say, because they rely on % time decreases from previous performances data, if he managed a low 12:33 that would be even mightier than 7:17:5x

Do you really think 56:42, as outlandish as it is, that Kiplimo run alone from the 5k in a fast-ish course at best stepping in literal puddles by the end is better than 7:17? Because scoretables say so.

With proper pacemaking, on a good weather day in Valencia Kiplimo would've clocked sub 56:30 that same morning.

7:17 and change is very, very, close to current physiology limits.

As a rule of thumb, IMHO under ideal conditions 56:29 is, too.

And everything starting with 12:33 is in that same ballbark.

12:30 is just fiction.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Skuj wrote:

Is 12:30 "definitely better than 7:17"?

We've seen 7:20/12:37 for years.

Then 7:20/12:35 for a while.

7:20 was widely considered to be the greatest WR.

Now 7:17.

Jingy can run 12:29 IF he has a great buildup. (ie Not 2025.)

Actually you’re right, I should not have said that 12:30 is definitely better than 7:17. Looks like World Athletics puts 7:17.55 as equal to 12:30.68. Of course, those points values are fluid and inexact, and there’s the question of whether Jakob is as amazing in a 5k time trial as a 3k time trial, but the times are in the same ballpark.

I never thought that 7:20.67 was the strongest WR, and argued many times that quite a few guys were capable of 7:20-7:23. Certainly now in the super shoe era, 7:20.67 has been brought down to earth not only by Jakob’s 7:17.55 but Aregawi 7:21, Fisher 7:22, Hocker 7:23, Girma 7:23, Kejelcha 7:23 in a race that came down to a (54) last lap kick…

Posters saying that he can split 7:35 at 3k and run the last 2k in 4:55-4:57 could be right, but we need to appreciate how hard that is. That’s still 3k on 12:39 pace and then 2k at ~7:23 3k pace…I’m not sure Jakob can do that. Running 12:30.5 is 2:30.1/K, which is 4.25 seconds slower than his 2:25.85/K pace in the 7:17.55, which is a fairly tight margin for someone who might be better at 2k/3k than 5k; it’s like a 7:30.0 guy running 12:50.75, or a 7:24.0 guy running 12:40.75, or a 7:36.0 guy running 13:00.75–possible for long distance oriented guys, but not a given!

All I’m arguing really is that Jakob running 12:30 for 5k is more than “just a question of when.” It’s still an incredible time, and if Jakob is capable of it a lot of things have to go right for him; we shouldn’t take it for granted.