A lot of the "rules" about running go out the window when talking about high school athletes. Hobbs Kessler ran 3:34 with a 1:49 800 and 8:39 2-mile, and only a 3:40 1500 PB coming in. Conventional wisdom says that should've been impossible - Webb himself ran 1:47 and 8:42 and his mile was noticeably slower. There are very few pros with a sub-3:35 PB who haven't also run 1:45-1:47, and the only ones who have done it also have sub-13:00 5k PBs.
So I would hesitate to put any high school athlete in a box. Crazy improvements and unusual times are pretty much the norm. If you said a year ago today that Tayvon Kitchen (a 4:11 guy) was going to run 3:41 and 3:59, you would be instantly dismissed. He had a 1:59 800 PB at this point last year, now he can do it twice. Clearly, he is still on the steep part of his improvement curve, and another 7 seconds could be possible. Josiah, meanwhile, has run 1:51 in a lowkey meet this season, and 3:57 indoors. Going under 1:50 is likely only a matter of time for him - would you not think a sub-1:50, sub-8:00 guy would have a shot at 3:53? I only knew a few guys in college who accomplished both, and all of them ran at least 3:38...putting them within spitting distance for sure.
TL;DR: not likely, but not impossible, and I'm glad they are going for it. It's an awesome record that deserves worthy challengers every year until it goes.
Your analysis based on PRs is misleading. An 12 second improvement in one year in HS is far from unheard of. A 4:11/8:49 guy can run much faster than 1:59. Webb could have easily run faster than 8:42 and it’s very likely he could have broken 8:30.
Even though Jeff Nelson didn't break 4:20 in an outdoor mile, he did it twice in a 2-mile. Nico Young’s HS 800m PR was 2:06. El Geurrouj didnt have a listed 800m PR and Bekele never broke 4:00.
A lot of the "rules" about running go out the window when talking about high school athletes. Hobbs Kessler ran 3:34 with a 1:49 800 and 8:39 2-mile, and only a 3:40 1500 PB coming in. Conventional wisdom says that should've been impossible - Webb himself ran 1:47 and 8:42 and his mile was noticeably slower. There are very few pros with a sub-3:35 PB who haven't also run 1:45-1:47, and the only ones who have done it also have sub-13:00 5k PBs.
So I would hesitate to put any high school athlete in a box. Crazy improvements and unusual times are pretty much the norm. If you said a year ago today that Tayvon Kitchen (a 4:11 guy) was going to run 3:41 and 3:59, you would be instantly dismissed. He had a 1:59 800 PB at this point last year, now he can do it twice. Clearly, he is still on the steep part of his improvement curve, and another 7 seconds could be possible. Josiah, meanwhile, has run 1:51 in a lowkey meet this season, and 3:57 indoors. Going under 1:50 is likely only a matter of time for him - would you not think a sub-1:50, sub-8:00 guy would have a shot at 3:53? I only knew a few guys in college who accomplished both, and all of them ran at least 3:38...putting them within spitting distance for sure.
TL;DR: not likely, but not impossible, and I'm glad they are going for it. It's an awesome record that deserves worthy challengers every year until it goes.
Your analysis based on PRs is misleading. An 12 second improvement in one year in HS is far from unheard of. A 4:11/8:49 guy can run much faster than 1:59. Webb could have easily run faster than 8:42 and it’s very likely he could have broken 8:30.
Even though Jeff Nelson didn't break 4:20 in an outdoor mile, he did it twice in a 2-mile. Nico Young’s HS 800m PR was 2:06. El Geurrouj didnt have a listed 800m PR and Bekele never broke 4:00.
Not all PRs are created equal.
I see this repeated alot on here and it's technically correct but a little misleading. He ran 3:32 over 1500, roughly equiv. to a 3:49 mile. He also regularly closed championship 5ks with a sub-4 last mile.
Quentin Nauman, a junior has run a 1:47.5 split. Probably the only desperate race he's run to date because all others were paced and finished in a furious kick to some decent times. It'll be interesting to see if he races the likes of Kitchen and if he can hang. I dont know if it'll all add up to 3:50 but it's likely to be a donnybrook if they lock horns. Strength vs speed. Ill take speed.
well.. we saw nauman absolutely destroy kitchen and beat tostenson in that mile...
Quentin Nauman, a junior has run a 1:47.5 split. Probably the only desperate race he's run to date because all others were paced and finished in a furious kick to some decent times. It'll be interesting to see if he races the likes of Kitchen and if he can hang. I dont know if it'll all add up to 3:50 but it's likely to be a donnybrook if they lock horns. Strength vs speed. Ill take speed.
well.. we saw nauman absolutely destroy kitchen and beat tostenson in that mile...
well.. kitchen and tostenson supposedly were at their own graduation earlier that day.
Quentin Nauman, a junior has run a 1:47.5 split. Probably the only desperate race he's run to date because all others were paced and finished in a furious kick to some decent times. It'll be interesting to see if he races the likes of Kitchen and if he can hang. I dont know if it'll all add up to 3:50 but it's likely to be a donnybrook if they lock horns. Strength vs speed. Ill take speed.
He looked darn desperate today against Lutkenhaus, like he had nothing left after his state meet.