Official 2025 NCAC XC Thread

Week 8 Report
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Oberlin College Interregional Rumble (Kenyon, John Carroll, Oberlin) 26 teams.

Kenyon (3rd - 109) ran a great race this weekend, knocking off John Carroll for the first time this season. Kenyon beat JCU at positions 3-7 and put their two displacers in front of JCU’s fifth man. Charlie Blackmer was Kenyon’s top finisher in 25:47, as Colt Murphy and Joshua Breard both clocked 25:58. Caleb Low and Henry Rodrigues ran their best races of the season, serving as the Owls 4-5 in 26:18 and 26:39.

John Carroll (5th - 184) maintained the best 1-2 in the conference, as Ian Paul (25:32) and Nate Julien (25:34) placed 3rd and 4th overall. But the rest of the Blue Streaks’ scorers didn’t hold up, with Sam Su, Joey Naiman, and Phil Coury all 60-90 seconds off their season bests. Freshmen Chuck Reigrut and Charles Payne (JCU’s displacers in Louisville) were both missing. After two strong runs at All-Ohio and Louisville, JCU looked vulnerable today.

Oberlin (7th - 243) produced their best team race of the season, tightening their scoring spread to 1:22 after gaps of 2:25, 2:01, and 3:13 in their last three races. Liam Newman led the Yeomen in 26:00, and Will Gordon (26:11) and Charles Endres (26:46) bounced back from rough outings last week.
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Augustana Interregional Invitational (Denison, DePauw, Wabash) Blue Race, 32 teams.

Denison (10th - 279) ran slightly worse than two weeks ago, but some of that may be due to running a hillier course. Will Jackson continued a great freshman season, taking 4th in the B race in 25:50. Noah Cyr remained a steady second man in 26:19, but the Big Red had some problems down the line. After strong races at OWU, Oliver DiCerbo and Will Fontana both struggled to follow up on those performances.

DePauw (12th - 352) was about as expected, with their top six runners finishing in the same order as at Louisville. Freshman Patrick McGrail was again the Tigers’ top runner in 26:37. In contrast to Wabash, DePauw’s consistency is encouraging.

Wabash (13th - 460) raced 800m stud Haiden Diemer-McKinney for the first time this season, but the rest of the squad was either missing or didn’t race well. Diemer-McKinney opened his season in 27:12, but he can likely run faster with a more aggressive race plan. The splits show a first mile of 5:30, suggesting a cautious return to racing. Freshman Tyler Kerzee, who ran 26:54 in his debut 8k, has now missed the last two meets.
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JennaStrong Fall Classic (Wooster, Wittenberg) 21 teams, including some DII schools.

Wooster (9th - 274) looked on the up this weekend, with their top nine runners clocking season bests. Perhaps the challenging course at Muskingum concealed the progress Wooster was making. In any event, Joe Ahmann (26:53) and Zane DeMercurio (26:55) both dipped under 27 minutes, something I didn’t expect to see from Wooster this year. Although depth is still a problem (5th man at 28:57), Wooster might be able to knock off one of the Indiana teams at the conference meet.

Wittenberg (DNP) again failed to record a team score, despite racing two new runners. Concerningly, Lucas Eisele did not race, erasing the one bright spot that Wittenberg had this season. Of their two conscripts, Mason Duncan is a 1:58 guy on the track, and Xavier Allen has no prior results. Neither broke 30 minutes this weekend.
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Conn College XC Invitational (OWU) 37 teams (B race)

Ohio Wesleyan (28th - 757) travelled out-of-region to Conn College, likely motivated by their women’s team’s prospects for a national bid. The men’s team raced their best so far this season, putting their fifth man under 29 minutes for the first time. Nonetheless, it’s still hard to see the Battling Bishops beating anyone other than Wittenberg at the conference meet.
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Reflections: The biggest news this week was Kenyon taking down JCU, showing that the Owls have a real shot at the conference title. Oberlin looked the strongest they’ve been this season, while Denison met expectations by beating both Indiana teams at Augustana. Wooster raced well at Muskingum, showing a better top end than OWU. Wittenberg remains a disaster.

I’ll make a separate post for my pre-championship breakdown and prediction.

After careful review, I present my predictions for the 2025 North Coast Athletic Conference Championships. Below I’ve ranked each team, and also attempted to predict the top 10 individuals. First, the team race:

1. John Carroll is my pick for the 2025 NCAC title. In their first year in the conference, JCU has shown the highest ceiling of any team. At All-Ohio and Louisville, JCU put their 5th men at 26:00 at 26:11, respectively. If they do that at the conference meet, no one will beat them. However, momentum is not on JCU’s side, as the Blue Streaks struggled at Oberlin in their last race. I predict they’ll bounce back to take the team title. Ian Paul and Nate Julien have been the Blue Streaks’ most consistent runners this fall, but keep an eye on Sam Su. The sophomore claims the fastest 8k time in the conference with his 25:10 at All-Ohio.
2. Kenyon leads the charge of the legacy conference teams. Capitalizing on strong track seasons, the Owls have a tight top three of Charlie Blackmer, Colt Murphy, and Joshua Breard. After taking down John Carroll at Oberlin, Kenyon will be aiming to win their first conference title since 2003. The Owls will also be racing on their home course, a course that JCU skipped for their season opener.
3. Denison has had a solid fall campaign, and the Big Red look to reassert themselves in the top half of the conference. Freshman William Jackson has been Denison’s top man all season, and looks all but certain to claim the Newcomer of the Year award. Noah Cyr, who won that same prize three years ago, has bounced back well from presumed injury problems last year. Positions 3-5 are iffy, and will determine the battle for third.
4. Oberlin won the conference title last year, but the Yeomen have lost four of their top five from that title-winning team. With three runners graduating and NCAC 1500 champ Piers Shirk out for the entire season, it’ll be almost impossible for Oberlin to defend their title. Liam Newman has been the top Yeoman this fall, running 26:03 and 26:00 in his last two races. Will Gordon and Charles Endres will look to give him some support, though both have had up-and-down seasons. Consistency is Oberlin’s main problem, as the Yeomen’s fifth man has ranged from 27:22 to 29:30 on comparable courses.
5. DePauw fields a very young team, as their entire varsity squad are freshmen and sophomores. Freshman Patrick McGrail leads the Tigers, but will likely be DePauw’s only all-conference honoree.
6. Wabash has been somewhat disappointing this fall, with some solid recruits and mid-distance guys who haven’t run well on the grass. 1:49 man Haiden Diemer-McKinney is outside his element in cross country, but will likely still be the Red Pack’s top man this weekend.
7. Wooster has outperformed my expectations this fall, and snuck their top two under 27:00 at Wilmington. Although their depth is poor, the Fighting Scots could take down one of the Indiana teams on a good day.
8. Ohio Wesleyan has the worst top end of any team in the conference, as no runner has broken 27:00 this season. The Battling Bishops will have to hope their 3-5 can rack up some margins on Wooster’s back half.
9. Wittenberg challenged for the conference title just last year, coming up 10 points short of Oberlin. But this year, the Tigers haven’t fielded a scoring team all fall. Lucas Eisele raced quite well in the early season, but was missing at Wilmington. Lukas Rieben, the top returner from last year, has been out of action all season. Wittenberg should consider it a success if they have five runners finish the race this weekend.

Individual Predictions:

1. Nate Julien (JCU)
2. Lucas Eisele (WIT)
3. Charlie Blackmer (KEN)
4. Ian Paul (JCU)
5. William Jackson (DEN)
6. Joshua Breard (KEN)
7. Liam Newman (OBE)
8. Colt Murphy (KEN)
9. Sam Su (JCU)
10. Noah Cyr (DEN)

Other peoples’ predictions:

NCAC Coaches’ Poll - points, (first-place votes)

1. Kenyon - 79 (7)
2. John Carroll - 71 (2)
3. Denison - 61
4. Oberlin - 57
5. DePauw - 47
6. Wabash - 36
7. Wooster - 27
8. Ohio Wesleyan - 17
9. Wittenberg -10

LACCTIC Simulation - predicted team scores

1. John Carroll - 39
2. Kenyon - 61
3. Oberlin - 82
4. Denison - 100
5. DePauw - 127
6. Wabash - 137
7. Wooster - 210
8. Wittenberg - 236
9. Ohio Wesleyan - 241

LACCTIC Simulation - predicted individual finish

1. William Jackson (DEN)
   
2. Nate Julien (JCU)
   
3. Charlie Blackmer (KEN)
   
4. Lucas Eisele (WIT)
   
5. Ian Paul (JCU)
   
6. Joshua Breard (KEN)
   
7. Sam Su (JCU)
   
8. Liam Newman (OBE)
   
9. Colt Murphy (KEN)
   
10. Noah Cyr (DEN)