Almgren - the guy he is training with - is going for katir’s european record for 5000m in Stockholm DL.
Not that I don’t think he could do it physically but will they pay the guys to drive the pace here? Stockholm has leaned to 3,000s of late and not the big guns (Aregawi, Kejelcha, Gebrhiwet, Mehary, Krop, Fisher) you might need to not have this lag to a 13:00 type finish.
To give a hot take, maybe Jakob's 5K time potential is overrated. He has said that 3K is his sweet spot, and he ran horrible at the 13.1 distance. A fast 3K/2M may not translate to a fast 5K as well as we think. After all, Josh Kerr can run a fast 2M but probably not even 13:20 for 5K. We're talking about a full extra mile and a lap, for a guy who has focused on the 1500 and not even raced a 10K (outside of road or XC races with weak fields).
To give a hot take, maybe Jakob's 5K time potential is overrated. He has said that 3K is his sweet spot, and he ran horrible at the 13.1 distance. A fast 3K/2M may not translate to a fast 5K as well as we think. After all, Josh Kerr can run a fast 2M but probably not even 13:20 for 5K. We're talking about a full extra mile and a lap, for a guy who has focused on the 1500 and not even raced a 10K (outside of road or XC races with weak fields).
I don't believe he has ever said that the 3K is his sweet spot. As for the half marathon, it's meaningless. It was at the end of track season and he said before the race he hadn't done the right preparation for it.
To give a hot take, maybe Jakob's 5K time potential is overrated. He has said that 3K is his sweet spot, and he ran horrible at the 13.1 distance. A fast 3K/2M may not translate to a fast 5K as well as we think. After all, Josh Kerr can run a fast 2M but probably not even 13:20 for 5K. We're talking about a full extra mile and a lap, for a guy who has focused on the 1500 and not even raced a 10K (outside of road or XC races with weak fields).
Weak fields:
Crippa 27:08
NDIKUMWENAYO 7:25.08
Almgren 26:52.87
Cairess 2:06:46
Nordås 3:29.47
Kimeli 12:50
Etc etc.
This seems like a talking point that is repeated so much that people believe it without thinking.
To give a hot take, maybe Jakob's 5K time potential is overrated. He has said that 3K is his sweet spot, and he ran horrible at the 13.1 distance. A fast 3K/2M may not translate to a fast 5K as well as we think. After all, Josh Kerr can run a fast 2M but probably not even 13:20 for 5K. We're talking about a full extra mile and a lap, for a guy who has focused on the 1500 and not even raced a 10K (outside of road or XC races with weak fields).
Weak fields:
Crippa 27:08
NDIKUMWENAYO 7:25.08
Almgren 26:52.87
Cairess 2:06:46
Nordås 3:29.47
Kimeli 12:50
Etc etc.
This seems like a talking point that is repeated so much that people believe it without thinking.
Looks like Jamin is a follower of the Army School of Anti-Jakob.
This makes me wonder what his schedule will end up looking like outside of the meets we know he’s already committed to. The 5000m in Oslo with wave light and a home crowd early in the season makes the most sense (perhaps after a 1500m tuneup in Rome maybe?). As you said he likely won’t be in shape to run a 5000m world record every year for the foreseeable future. I’m wondering about Lausanne now. Apparently he has a contract to run there, but at the meet this year there is an 800m and a 5000m. Does he go for the 5000m world record there? If so, does he run the diamond league final in Zurich not long after a gruelling effort and risk potential burnout or a too early peak before the World Championships? Does he run the 800m? I can’t see that. Can he skip Lausanne all together and run in Silesia (where presumably he’ll go for the 1500m world record), then run in Zurich simply for the win before Tokyo a few weeks later? There’s a few question marks over his schedule and events, it’s fun to speculate. I’m sure we’ll see some fantastic performances from him and his peers this season!
This seems like a talking point that is repeated so much that people believe it without thinking.
They’re not weak fields in the grand scheme. I’m a Jakob believer but him beating guys who are 12:50 guys in essence as you have here doesn’t mean he’s a 12:35 guy. We just have to see it.
This seems like a talking point that is repeated so much that people believe it without thinking.
They’re not weak fields in the grand scheme. I’m a Jakob believer but him beating guys who are 12:50 guys in essence as you have here doesn’t mean he’s a 12:35 guy. We just have to see it.
He's definitely a 12:35 guy. It may take a few attempts, and based on where his priorities lie, it might be a while before he runs that time, but let's be real. He is definitely good enough to run 12:35
They’re not weak fields in the grand scheme. I’m a Jakob believer but him beating guys who are 12:50 guys in essence as you have here doesn’t mean he’s a 12:35 guy. We just have to see it.
He's definitely a 12:35 guy. It may take a few attempts, and based on where his priorities lie, it might be a while before he runs that time, but let's be real. He is definitely good enough to run 12:35
I respect your opinions, but in my opinion, Jakob will break the WR at 5000m in his first attempt.
They’re not weak fields in the grand scheme. I’m a Jakob believer but him beating guys who are 12:50 guys in essence as you have here doesn’t mean he’s a 12:35 guy. We just have to see it.
The comment was that he has been racing weak xc fields.
He's definitely a 12:35 guy. It may take a few attempts, and based on where his priorities lie, it might be a while before he runs that time, but let's be real. He is definitely good enough to run 12:35
I respect your opinions, but in my opinion, Jakob will break the WR at 5000m in his first attempt.
100%.
The question is not whether or not he’s a 12:35 guy, it is whether or not he’s a 12:29 guy.
This makes me wonder what his schedule will end up looking like outside of the meets we know he’s already committed to. The 5000m in Oslo with wave light and a home crowd early in the season makes the most sense (perhaps after a 1500m tuneup in Rome maybe?). As you said he likely won’t be in shape to run a 5000m world record every year for the foreseeable future. I’m wondering about Lausanne now. Apparently he has a contract to run there, but at the meet this year there is an 800m and a 5000m. Does he go for the 5000m world record there? If so, does he run the diamond league final in Zurich not long after a gruelling effort and risk potential burnout or a too early peak before the World Championships? Does he run the 800m? I can’t see that. Can he skip Lausanne all together and run in Silesia (where presumably he’ll go for the 1500m world record), then run in Zurich simply for the win before Tokyo a few weeks later? There’s a few question marks over his schedule and events, it’s fun to speculate. I’m sure we’ll see some fantastic performances from him and his peers this season!
I hadn't picked up on that Lausanne schedule having only a 800 and 5000. Now of course these meets can put on what they want in terms of promo events but in general the guys will still plan around the DL events in 95% of cases. He can't skip Lausanne because of his multi-year deal, so in that cases maybe this is the first of his really fast 5000's he wants to try. This would make some sense - maybe he wants to go 1500m in Olso before a WR shot at the mile in Eugene. He then has the clash with Kerr in London but who knows how competitive that will be so maybe this becomes a sub 3.27 attempt? Come back for Silesia and Lausanne (1500/5000), maybe skip Brussles (?), DL final in Zurich. Maybe he runs a 5000m in Paris on June the 20th - a track he also likes and has run well on?
Point is, not running the 5000 in Oslo allows him to get an effort without coming in a little cold and having to go after a sub 12.40 in the first race of the outdoor season. Otherwise he might want to run Rome but with the season being so long I think he's probably going to be more picky with races and he typically hovers in the 7/8 race per season (excluding champs) every year.
I agree it's fun to speculate. Right now my guess would be
Oslo: 1500
Eugene: Mile
London: 1500
Silesia: 1500
Lausanne: 5000
Zurich: 1500
Tokyo: 1500/5000 (obviously)
and I think it will be either Paris on the 20th of June (5000) or Brussels on the 22 August (1500) that will make up his schedule.
I respect your opinions, but in my opinion, Jakob will break the WR at 5000m in his first attempt.
100%.
The question is not whether or not he’s a 12:35 guy, it is whether or not he’s a 12:29 guy.
This.
I'm willing to bet that 5000m is his sweet spot / best event. He just hasn't "gone for it" yet. Dude has immense patience when it comes to this kind of thing. I bow to Team Jingy Planning.
This makes me wonder what his schedule will end up looking like outside of the meets we know he’s already committed to. The 5000m in Oslo with wave light and a home crowd early in the season makes the most sense (perhaps after a 1500m tuneup in Rome maybe?). As you said he likely won’t be in shape to run a 5000m world record every year for the foreseeable future. I’m wondering about Lausanne now. Apparently he has a contract to run there, but at the meet this year there is an 800m and a 5000m. Does he go for the 5000m world record there? If so, does he run the diamond league final in Zurich not long after a gruelling effort and risk potential burnout or a too early peak before the World Championships? Does he run the 800m? I can’t see that. Can he skip Lausanne all together and run in Silesia (where presumably he’ll go for the 1500m world record), then run in Zurich simply for the win before Tokyo a few weeks later? There’s a few question marks over his schedule and events, it’s fun to speculate. I’m sure we’ll see some fantastic performances from him and his peers this season!
I hadn't picked up on that Lausanne schedule having only a 800 and 5000. Now of course these meets can put on what they want in terms of promo events but in general the guys will still plan around the DL events in 95% of cases. He can't skip Lausanne because of his multi-year deal, so in that cases maybe this is the first of his really fast 5000's he wants to try. This would make some sense - maybe he wants to go 1500m in Olso before a WR shot at the mile in Eugene. He then has the clash with Kerr in London but who knows how competitive that will be so maybe this becomes a sub 3.27 attempt? Come back for Silesia and Lausanne (1500/5000), maybe skip Brussles (?), DL final in Zurich. Maybe he runs a 5000m in Paris on June the 20th - a track he also likes and has run well on?
Point is, not running the 5000 in Oslo allows him to get an effort without coming in a little cold and having to go after a sub 12.40 in the first race of the outdoor season. Otherwise he might want to run Rome but with the season being so long I think he's probably going to be more picky with races and he typically hovers in the 7/8 race per season (excluding champs) every year.
I agree it's fun to speculate. Right now my guess would be
Oslo: 1500
Eugene: Mile
London: 1500
Silesia: 1500
Lausanne: 5000
Zurich: 1500
Tokyo: 1500/5000 (obviously)
and I think it will be either Paris on the 20th of June (5000) or Brussels on the 22 August (1500) that will make up his schedule.
All just a guess and speculation.
If he is going to run the 5000m, surely he’ll want to make it count.
If he runs the 5000m in August, then there is no way he’ll be in peak, maximal time trial ability for the 1500m. They are a little too far apart of events to be in peak shape for both simultaneously. He’ll run it in Oslo almost certainly coming off his altitude training plus a few faster sessions beforehand.
To give a hot take, maybe Jakob's 5K time potential is overrated. He has said that 3K is his sweet spot, and he ran horrible at the 13.1 distance. A fast 3K/2M may not translate to a fast 5K as well as we think. After all, Josh Kerr can run a fast 2M but probably not even 13:20 for 5K. We're talking about a full extra mile and a lap, for a guy who has focused on the 1500 and not even raced a 10K (outside of road or XC races with weak fields).
Yeah but his 12:48 from like a hundred years ago negates this hypothesis
To give a hot take, maybe Jakob's 5K time potential is overrated. He has said that 3K is his sweet spot, and he ran horrible at the 13.1 distance. A fast 3K/2M may not translate to a fast 5K as well as we think. After all, Josh Kerr can run a fast 2M but probably not even 13:20 for 5K. We're talking about a full extra mile and a lap, for a guy who has focused on the 1500 and not even raced a 10K (outside of road or XC races with weak fields).
Yeah but his 12:48 from like a hundred years ago negates this hypothesis
And his last defeat in the 5000m, 102 years ago, which the younger generation doesn't even remember.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Add 1/2 more sentence
I'm not sure Jakob's worried about the timing. His 2 mile world record was set on June 9, while his 3000 wr was set on August 25, AFTER having already peaked for Paris.