Jane Hedengren isn't the person at Bryan Clay who will be doing the pacing, so her pace is not in her control like it was when she ran 15:13 at Nike Indoor Nationals. Hedengren will be following someone else, and that someone else will be running faster than Hedengren is used to.
C'mon girl is not stupid. They will have a plan. Either back of lead pack, or running with a 2nd group looking for 15:00-15:15.
She's fit enough to try: 3:00, 6:00, 9:00, 12:00 thru 4k and then hang on.
They could also try to hit 4k in 12:16 and have something left to close.
Jane Hedengren isn't the person at Bryan Clay who will be doing the pacing, so her pace is not in her control like it was when she ran 15:13 at Nike Indoor Nationals. Hedengren will be following someone else, and that someone else will be running faster than Hedengren is used to.
C'mon girl is not stupid. They will have a plan. Either back of lead pack, or running with a 2nd group looking for 15:00-15:15.
She's fit enough to try: 3:00, 6:00, 9:00, 12:00 thru 4k and then hang on.
They could also try to hit 4k in 12:16 and have something left to close.
One way or the other, they will have a plan.
On the contrary, I think she has as close to zero incentive as possible to run a "smart" race. She already has the high school record, the is close to zero expectations about her winning this race. She likely is going for broke, the lead group will be marginally sub 15 pace (14:52 probably) I don't think it makes any sense for her to not go with the leaders. Sub 15 or bust.
C'mon girl is not stupid. They will have a plan. Either back of lead pack, or running with a 2nd group looking for 15:00-15:15.
She's fit enough to try: 3:00, 6:00, 9:00, 12:00 thru 4k and then hang on.
They could also try to hit 4k in 12:16 and have something left to close.
One way or the other, they will have a plan.
On the contrary, I think she has as close to zero incentive as possible to run a "smart" race. She already has the high school record, the is close to zero expectations about her winning this race. She likely is going for broke, the lead group will be marginally sub 15 pace (14:52 probably) I don't think it makes any sense for her to not go with the leaders. Sub 15 or bust.
Yes, that is what Jane Hedengren will be doing. 10% chance she runs an amazing time, 90% chance she runs out of gas and fades at the end. I don't blame her for going for it, I just don't think that she'll actually pull it off.
Jane Hendengren ran 15:15 indoor, early season, on a 200M track. By the time Bryan Clay rolls around, outdoor, 400M track she will go 15:00-15:10 . . . with a very real possibility she goes sub 15:00. She is wise beyond her years when it comes to proper pacing . . . she won’t go out “too fast.”
She just ran 9:34 for two miles. On what planet does that translate to sub 15? Look, I'm as much of a fan as you are here in Utah, but let's not put unrealistic expectations on her.
Jane Hendengren ran 15:15 indoor, early season, on a 200M track. By the time Bryan Clay rolls around, outdoor, 400M track she will go 15:00-15:10 . . . with a very real possibility she goes sub 15:00. She is wise beyond her years when it comes to proper pacing . . . she won’t go out “too fast.”
She just ran 9:34 for two miles. On what planet does that translate to sub 15? Look, I'm as much of a fan as you are here in Utah, but let's not put unrealistic expectations on her.
FYI, Jane thinks that her 9:34 was just an off day and that she is really in much better shape than that. She believes the (unrealistic) altitude conversion of her indoor altitude 9:37 3200 is 9:20 - 9:25 at sea level on an outdoor 400 track. Which means that theoretically she might be able to break 15.
I don't believe she can break 15, but I wouldn't be surprised if she tries.
To be honest, her trying to break 15 is more interesting than if she was just trying to break her 15:13 national record by a half second.
She just ran 9:34 for two miles. On what planet does that translate to sub 15? Look, I'm as much of a fan as you are here in Utah, but let's not put unrealistic expectations on her.
FYI, Jane thinks that her 9:34 was just an off day and that she is really in much better shape than that. She believes the (unrealistic) altitude conversion of her indoor altitude 9:37 3200 is 9:20 - 9:25 at sea level on an outdoor 400 track. Which means that theoretically she might be able to break 15.
I don't believe she can break 15, but I wouldn't be surprised if she tries.
To be honest, her trying to break 15 is more interesting than if she was just trying to break her 15:13 national record by a half second.
Also she ran that with 0 competition. I think it's more than fair for her to think she had another 10 seconds with people pushing her.
The altitude conversion is awfully generous but that wooden track can't possibly be as fast as an outdoor track. I would think the wooden track would be worth a few seconds. She also had to lap the entire field and a lot of runners multiple times.
Her 9:37.50 3200 is equal to around 9:41 for 2 miles. Let's say the altitude is worth 7 seconds, the wooden track is worth 3 seconds, and the lapping of runners is worth an additional 2 seconds.
That would put her at 9:29 for 2 miles. She is presumably more fit now than she was then. Her 5K and mile a few weeks later were incredible.
I think she had a solid but unspectscular day at Arcadia. She had outstanding performances 3 cross country races in a row. She had a solid time trial at either the 1600 or mile with no competition. Then she had phenomenal performances at Simplot and the 2 races at Nike Indoor. She's not going to have A or A+ races every single time.
I think an underrated factor in her result maybe not being as fast as expected is that it's probably harder to time trial on a 400 meter track vs. a 200 meter track. Only getting feedback every 400 meters probably takes a lot of stress to stay dialed in on a pace. I could be wrong, but solo efforts outdoor just seem to work out a lot less often than on an indoor track. I'm sure no wind indoors is a factor, but there was little to no wind at Arcadia.
I don't believe she can break 15, but I wouldn't be surprised if she tries.
To be honest, her trying to break 15 is more interesting than if she was just trying to break her 15:13 national record by a half second.
What would prove the most interesting is her running the fastest time possible. Her running 3:00-3:00-3:05-3:08-3:07 for a 15:20 wouldn’t be as interesting as her running 3:02-3:03-3:03-3:03-3:00 for a 15:11. I think she should try to pace it through the first 9-10 laps so that if she can hold on, she can eek out a PR, and if she can close strongly she can run 15:0X.
WVU's Sarah Tait, LSU fr Edna Chepkemoi, OK fr Leah Jeruto, NAU's Karrie Baloga & Maisie Grice in 3000SC.
Brenda Tuwei Jenna Hutchins in 10000m.
Will Ish and Hab target Nico's 12:57.17i, Lawi's 13:00.95 or Abdihamid's 13:06.32?
Could depend on the conditions, and Woody might have a say in the matter. Whatever the pace, the racing should be good. If Kinkaid isn't pacing, I doubt he intends to get schooled--and certainly not outkicked--by a college kid. Also, look for Evans Kurui of Wash St to crush his 13:17 pb.
5000 (indoor) - 15:13.26 (1161 WA points) - equates to 15:01.30 outdoor 5000 mile (indoor) - 4:26 (1176 WA points) - equates to 14:53.58 outdoor 5000 2-mile (outdoor) - 9:34.12 (1124 WA points) - equates to 15:20.55 outdoor 5000
I am skeptical of the indoor-to-outdoor conversions that WA uses. She is certainly not running 14:53 anytime soon. On an absolutely perfect day with perfect pacing, I think she could go about 15:05.
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5000 (indoor) - 15:13.26 (1161 WA points) - equates to 15:01.30 outdoor 5000 mile (indoor) - 4:26 (1176 WA points) - equates to 14:53.58 outdoor 5000 2-mile (outdoor) - 9:34.12 (1124 WA points) - equates to 15:20.55 outdoor 5000
I am skeptical of the indoor-to-outdoor conversions that WA uses. She is certainly not running 14:53 anytime soon. On an absolutely perfect day with perfect pacing, I think she could go about 15:05.
Please repeat after me: indoor to outdoor WA points conversions are nonsense.