UngusBungus wrote:
My prediction is that if it’s below 3:35 Hocker wins, otherwise it’s Wanyonyi.
Wanyonyi’s quite a wildcard though so I wouldn’t be surprised that he does much better or worse than expected.
Called it
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49
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snowflakes wrote:
Jakob would have pushed with 800 to go and run 1:49-1:50 in a 3:31 race. Can’t leave it to a kick with a strength based 800m guy.
He would have had to have pushed earlier than that for your times to add up. I think Wanyonyi’s last 800 was 1:49.xx.
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snowflakes wrote:
snowflakes wrote:
The other guys will underestimate him and he will outkick all of them in 3:3x.xx high
What did I say? They underestimated him. Jakob would have pushed with 800 to go and run 1:49-1:50 in a 3:31 race. Can’t leave it to a kick with a strength based 800m guy.
Good call
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
snowflakes wrote:
Jakob would have pushed with 800 to go and run 1:49-1:50 in a 3:31 race. Can’t leave it to a kick with a strength based 800m guy.
He would have had to have pushed earlier than that for your times to add up. I think Wanyonyi’s last 800 was 1:49.xx.
It wasn’t. A little over 1:50.
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snowflakes wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
He would have had to have pushed earlier than that for your times to add up. I think Wanyonyi’s last 800 was 1:49.xx.
It wasn’t. A little over 1:50.
If you have race splits or a full video replay (not on Peacock) I would love to see it. It looks like Wanyonyi’s last 700 was about 1:34.8, which is 1:48.34 pace. Regardless of whether his last 800 was 1:49 or 1:50, my point that Jakob would have had to take it on earlier than 800 to go to run 3:31 with a 1:49/1:50 last 800 is obviously true.
61 -
Wanyonyi won easily. lol I hope Josh Kerr’s ego can take that.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
snowflakes wrote:
It wasn’t. A little over 1:50.
If you have race splits or a full video replay (not on Peacock) I would love to see it. It looks like Wanyonyi’s last 700 was about 1:34.8, which is 1:48.34 pace. Regardless of whether his last 800 was 1:49 or 1:50, my point that Jakob would have had to take it on earlier than 800 to go to run 3:31 with a 1:49/1:50 last 800 is obviously true.
He passes 700m at around 1:45 flat. So it’s around 1:50 for the final 800m plus some. Most of his acceleration came in the final 300m which makes sense since there was no effort to put him above his threshold by the other guys.
Go to 7:42 in this video.
Yes, obviously he would have to go out from further since nobody else is going to make it a 3:30 low race.
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I really don't understand what Hocker was thinking. He just let the race get away from him on the back-straight, but he actually closed the final 200 faster than everyone, including Wanyoni.
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snowflakes wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
If you have race splits or a full video replay (not on Peacock) I would love to see it. It looks like Wanyonyi’s last 700 was about 1:34.8, which is 1:48.34 pace. Regardless of whether his last 800 was 1:49 or 1:50, my point that Jakob would have had to take it on earlier than 800 to go to run 3:31 with a 1:49/1:50 last 800 is obviously true.
He passes 700m at around 1:45 flat. So it’s around 1:50 for the final 800m plus some. Most of his acceleration came in the final 300m which makes sense since there was no effort to put him above his threshold by the other guys.
Go to 7:42 in this video.
Yes, obviously he would have to go out from further since nobody else is going to make it a 3:30 low race.
might have to watch it on tv tomorrow. much prefer those views to what peacock is giving. can't stand not seeing where they are on the track for half the race.
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Grassrunner wrote:
I really don't understand what Hocker was thinking. He just let the race get away from him on the back-straight, but he actually closed the final 200 faster than everyone, including Wanyoni.
Hocker is anything but a master tactician. We've got to stop thinking of the Olympic final as his norm. What was he thinking a couple months ago when he decided to give Fisher a breather by taking the lead with two laps remaining?
51 -
After watching it again it seems obvious that Hocker was intimidated by Wanyonyi. He knew he couldn't afford a direct comparison of his kick vs Wanyonyi at 1500. If he loses a stretch drive like that it's a reputation jolt and a confidence jolt. That's why as soon as he looked to his right and saw it was Wanyonyi passing him, Hocker inexplicably backed way off until he was mathematically eliminated.
It's inexplicable until you realize that's the only thing that makes sense. These guys have huge egos. Hocker allowed himself to drift so far back to the point it was no longer a direct comparison with the outcome at stake. There's no chance the backstretch unfolds that way if Wanyonyi was not in the race.
However, at 800 there won't be nearly the expectation on Hocker. Just the opposite. He can afford to get into a stretch battle.
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Good prediction. No idea why people acted like he was a wild card, though.
Wanyonyi took down the (then) reigning world champion and WR holder Hobbs Kessler in a road mile exactly a year ago, in a new road mile WR of 3:54 on a not so fast course:
Matched both of Hobbs' hard moves (similar to ones that won him Worlds), and then easily dropped him with 200 to go.
(By the way, makes no sense that Hobbs is not racing this. Definitely stronger than Nuguse and Hocker over the combined 800/1500. Probably an easy second overall behind Wanyoni.)50 -
video of that race:40
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snowflakes wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
If you have race splits or a full video replay (not on Peacock) I would love to see it. It looks like Wanyonyi’s last 700 was about 1:34.8, which is 1:48.34 pace. Regardless of whether his last 800 was 1:49 or 1:50, my point that Jakob would have had to take it on earlier than 800 to go to run 3:31 with a 1:49/1:50 last 800 is obviously true.
He passes 700m at around 1:45 flat. So it’s around 1:50 for the final 800m plus some. Most of his acceleration came in the final 300m which makes sense since there was no effort to put him above his threshold by the other guys.
Go to 7:42 in this video.
Yes, obviously he would have to go out from further since nobody else is going to make it a 3:30 low race.
Wow, the screen split into four and 3/4 of them was useless.
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Awsi Dooger wrote:
Grassrunner wrote:
I really don't understand what Hocker was thinking. He just let the race get away from him on the back-straight, but he actually closed the final 200 faster than everyone, including Wanyoni.
Hocker is anything but a master tactician. We've got to stop thinking of the Olympic final as his norm. What was he thinking a couple months ago when he decided to give Fisher a breather by taking the lead with two laps remaining?
Even at the olympics he boxed himself at the same way both in the final and semi-final.
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snowflakes wrote:
snowflakes wrote:
The other guys will underestimate him and he will outkick all of them in 3:3x.xx high
What did I say? They underestimated him. Jakob would have pushed with 800 to go and run 1:49-1:50 in a 3:31 race. Can’t leave it to a kick with a strength based 800m guy.
Great prediction. And you're right about Jakob, too. He wouldn't have underestimated Wanyonyi. He would have underestimated everyone else, and overestimated his ability to outkick the people he escorted through1400 meters again.
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lcl2006 wrote:
video of that race:I’d never seen that race before. That was extremely impressive.
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snowflakes wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
He would have had to have pushed earlier than that for your times to add up. I think Wanyonyi’s last 800 was 1:49.xx.
It wasn’t. A little over 1:50.
They have a normal website with all of the splits for the media. It's a shame they don't make it available to the public. JG shared it with me yesterday.
Wanyonyi's final 800 - 1:49.46 (And that was with a 15.07 100m segement between 800 and 900).
Here are the 1500m 100m splits.
Rank | Athlete | Time | Splits (100m intervals)
--------------------------------------------------------------
1 | Emmanuel Wanyonyi | 3:35.18 | 14.48, 14.82, 15.42, 15.28, 14.94, 15.03, 15.77, 14.69, 15.07, 14.53, 13.61, 13.23, 12.49, 13.16, 12.72
2 | Yared Nuguse | 3:35.36 | 14.52, 14.66, 15.31, 15.16, 14.83, 15.14, 17.08, 13.59, 14.92, 14.28, 13.70, 13.05, 12.97, 13.03, 13.17
3 | Cole Hocker | 3:35.52 | 14.31, 14.74, 15.37, 14.93, 14.95, 15.16, 15.37, 15.30, 15.09, 14.45, 14.04, 13.34, 13.08, 12.68, 12.76
4 | Neil Gourley | 3:35.60 | 14.54, 15.02, 15.32, 15.30, 14.95, 15.00, 15.34, 15.27, 14.70, 14.46, 14.24, 12.90, 12.59, 13.06, 12.98
5 | Josh Kerr | 3:35.61 | 14.69, 14.76, 15.17, 15.18, 14.90, 15.08, 15.38, 15.24, 14.98, 14.36, 13.97, 12.84, 12.68, 13.10, 13.34
6 | Marco Arop | 3:39.65 | 14.86, 14.94, 15.59, 14.90, 14.90, 14.95, 15.60, 15.09, 14.90, 14.72, 13.88, 13.47, 13.38, 14.61, 13.92
7 | Bryce Hoppel | 3:39.78 | 14.71, 15.08, 15.81, 14.92, 14.72, 15.11, 15.45, 15.26, 14.80, 14.83, 13.95, 13.80, 13.66, 13.79, 13.96
8 | Mohamed Attaoui | 3:39.78 | 15.03, 15.02, 15.28, 15.10, 14.97, 14.99, 15.39, 15.31, 14.88, 14.26, 13.83, 13.37, 14.17, 14.58, 13.6460 -
rojo wrote:
snowflakes wrote:
It wasn’t. A little over 1:50.
They have a normal website with all of the splits for the media. It's a shame they don't make it available to the public. JG shared it with me yesterday.
Wanyonyi's final 800 - 1:49.46 (And that was with a 15.07 100m segement between 800 and 900).
Here are the 1500m 100m splits.
Rank | Athlete | Time | Splits (100m intervals)
--------------------------------------------------------------
1 | Emmanuel Wanyonyi | 3:35.18 | 14.48, 14.82, 15.42, 15.28, 14.94, 15.03, 15.77, 14.69, 15.07, 14.53, 13.61, 13.23, 12.49, 13.16, 12.72
2 | Yared Nuguse | 3:35.36 | 14.52, 14.66, 15.31, 15.16, 14.83, 15.14, 17.08, 13.59, 14.92, 14.28, 13.70, 13.05, 12.97, 13.03, 13.17
3 | Cole Hocker | 3:35.52 | 14.31, 14.74, 15.37, 14.93, 14.95, 15.16, 15.37, 15.30, 15.09, 14.45, 14.04, 13.34, 13.08, 12.68, 12.76
4 | Neil Gourley | 3:35.60 | 14.54, 15.02, 15.32, 15.30, 14.95, 15.00, 15.34, 15.27, 14.70, 14.46, 14.24, 12.90, 12.59, 13.06, 12.98
5 | Josh Kerr | 3:35.61 | 14.69, 14.76, 15.17, 15.18, 14.90, 15.08, 15.38, 15.24, 14.98, 14.36, 13.97, 12.84, 12.68, 13.10, 13.34
6 | Marco Arop | 3:39.65 | 14.86, 14.94, 15.59, 14.90, 14.90, 14.95, 15.60, 15.09, 14.90, 14.72, 13.88, 13.47, 13.38, 14.61, 13.92
7 | Bryce Hoppel | 3:39.78 | 14.71, 15.08, 15.81, 14.92, 14.72, 15.11, 15.45, 15.26, 14.80, 14.83, 13.95, 13.80, 13.66, 13.79, 13.96
8 | Mohamed Attaoui | 3:39.78 | 15.03, 15.02, 15.28, 15.10, 14.97, 14.99, 15.39, 15.31, 14.88, 14.26, 13.83, 13.37, 14.17, 14.58, 13.64Awesome, thanks rojo. I don’t know about anyone else, but I enjoy being right.
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the posts on this thread are excellent and pretty much predicted what happened.
looking at the splits 12x 100 in the back stretch was required not to get gapped, and Hocker possible could not rally instantaneously, psychologically saving his energy for the finish.
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