Jakob Ingebrigtsen ran 1:46 for 800 in 2020. What could he run in 2025?

Showing my age, I remember being disappointed when Morceli "only" ran 1:44.79 in Rieti. He had a devastating kick in his prime off, but he didn't have the speed reserve for the 800m; his wheels fell off in the final 100m. He was also a 1500/mile/3000/5000m guy. Catcho running 1:45.37 also comes to mind.

According to my Armstronglivs calculator, he can’t run faster than 1:46.

Low 1:44 under good conditions in the high season. And sub 1:44 if he focused a bit on this distance.

I was certainly also in the 90% group : 2:07.5 in the 800m and 4:29 in the 1500m (run with some few days in between in the European Veteran champs; in age group 50-54).

Morceli didn´t run 1:44.79 in Rieti. He ran 1:44.79 in Annaba in 1991 at a time where his PB in the 1500m was only 3:31.00.

AND Morceli only ran some few 800m races in his career (in 1991 and 1994) whereas his PB in the 1500m was run in 1995 (3:27,34). So I would say Morceli would at least have been a 1:43 runner if he had focused more on the distance AND run it when at his best in the 1500m.

Fermin Cacho likewise ran his 1:45 PB when his PB in the 1500m was only 3:32.

So if you want to conclude anything from the merits of these 2 runners I would be that Jakob should be able to run significantly faster in the 800m.

About 1:41 flat. The 1:47 in 2022 was a one off. He raced that as part of a workout at that meet because he arrived too late to race the 1500. That 8 wasn’t all out and it was during part of his heavy training block focused on threshold.

Jakob is much faster than people think. He closed a final 200 of the 15 in Monaco in 2023 in 24.02 seconds. Thats faster than any of his competitors. He only loses to those guys in championships because of his over aggressive tactics.

He told Norwegian media he ran a 46 400 in practice at the end of the 2022 season. He said in that interview he could run about 1:41 flat but he doesn't like running the 800. He said when he runs that fast he starts to get hip inflammation and he prefers the 1500 and longer, so he said he would likely never attempt an all out 800 race.

Kessler has run 1:43. Jakob is better than Kessler.

That 1:47 was also not all out. It was part of a makeup workout because he arrived late and missed the 1500.

Correct. Jakob actually has the third fastest final 200 in a 1500 at 24.02 seconds only behind Coe’s 24.01 and 23.76. He also claimed to a Norwegian news organization out of Oslo a few years ago that he’s run about a 46 flat 400 from a standing start in practice. It was at the end of the 2022 season. In that same interview he said he could get down to 1:41 flat but he doesn’t like the 800 because when he runs that fast he gets hip inflammation. He said he’ll probably never run an all out 800 again and will continue to move up in distance.

1:42-1:43

Dude it’s not April Fool’s Day anymore. There was no 1500 in Monaco in 2023. Jakob has never closed any race in 24.0 in his life. He never claimed those outrageous times “to Norwegian media.”

Mo Farah would close in 50-51, does that mean he should have moved down and tried to take down Rudisha instead of moving to the roads?

great post. Army himself might even get a slight chuckle out of that.

He closed in 24.02. I thought it was Monaco. It may have been in Italy. I’ll find which meet. There was a big hoopla on the boards because it looked like Jakob was going to be unstoppable in Budapest after having lost to Jake Wightman a year earlier in Eugene. After Eugene, Aftenposten interviewed Jakob and one of the questions the interviewer asked was if he felt he had enough speed compared to Wightman. Jakob answered that he believed he did and he set up an all out 400 with his team to test the waters. He said he was a little surprised because he had not run an all out 400 since he was 15, and that it was right over 50 sec, but he thought he was capable of at least mid 47 so he wasn’t totally shocked either when he ran low 46.

He said his fastest was 48. Probably you know better

Given that Hobbs will probably run 142 this year, 146 is not a reasonable number for Jacob, given that he's out run the fellow in every race by a wide margin. And the whole world has dropped a second last year due to whatever.

In old school times a 145 would be the slowest a top miler goes historically, the ones that actually competed in the distance, not just run it for a speed session.

So Jacob would run 144 high today minimum. 143 if its a good race with some specific prep.

Of course you get in 145 type race and run 145, that's not where you get a PR. or a dust buster..

To get any semblance of a real PR in the 8, you would run some 400 relays, fast 200s in practice, and half a dozen races. Lowering the mileage for a month or two would help.

That quality work would have to substitute for middle-D work, and Jacob's not going to do that.

Regarding guys like Cram and their basic speed, for some reason they are overly modest. they are hard pressed to run a 48 in practice, in the middle of middle-D prep, but the guy runs a 47.5 relay 400 and pushes Coe to the max in that round the courtyard run, plus running 142 and many 143s and beat 141 guys in shape...

in this math, you don't run 51 plus 51 being barely able to break 49.

Similarly I would have Jacob being challenged to break 50 any day of the week, maybe 49 high, but with just a little sharpening and speed, it comes down to 48 high.

48 high gets you 144 800 every day of the week for an endurance guy.

im pretty sure someone with low 46 400 speed combined with 12:48 5k strength should be running a 3:39 mile

April fools was yesterday bro

Quite possibly. It’s arguable what the cutoff is, but the speed to run a 46 is mostly going to be an anatomical anaerobic feat. At that speed the body’s metabolic cycle will burn glucose instead of oxygen. So it taps into what is essentially an emergency cell energy reserve to keep going, and it can only sustain that until the body will automatically slow down due to lactic acidosis. This is why you will never see even a 400/800 go out in under 48 seconds in the first lap of the 8. Faster than that for almost anyone is close to a max out sprint. Even a 43 second guy can’t really run a moderate paced 46 and keep going another 400 meters. If a 43 sec guy goes out in 46, it will feel more comfortable than his PR, but will still feel close to red line and he’ll have to stop at about 550m.

A 3:39 mile is just under 55 sec per lap. 54 highs are by no means jogging but still technically in a majority aerobic metabolic zone. At this speed the body is still burning oxygen and releasing carbon dioxide and sugar in its respiratory cycle. It’s tapped into glucose a bit, but isn’t tapped out by any means. So someone with 46 400 turnover can potentially go through 1:49 and feel like they can run another one if their aerobic metabolism is pretty much perfect. There isn’t a single lap fast enough in and of itself that will cause lactic acidosis. A 46 guy running 8 sec slower only needs to worry about lactic cumulative buildup but with a high enough resistance will not max out running 4 54s in a row.