NKE down 30% in the last year and down over 60% from its 2021 high.
Get woke, go broke. The cancer is unrelenting.
Its more to do with nike deprioitizing local indie retailers, running clubs, and minimizing their product line. The nike tempo short used to be available in like 100 colors. Now nike has a less recognizable women's short available in 8 or so.
Also when you don't see nike in the retail store, you don't think to go to nike.com when you need products online.
I don't think identity politics moved the needle in terms of sales for them.
Trading at 40% of its high point, this has to be one of the worst-managed companies over the last decade. Analysts think the core problem is a lack of innovation and cutting ties with their brick-and-mortar retail sector, but ask any runner, and they will say the shoes are terrible and the clothing is second-rate quality at best. And don't fool yourself; running is still the core driver at Nike.
It’s American success stories that Nike needs. That’s why they need to hire Sean Brosnan and give him a blank cheque to get a pro group started.
They used to own basketball. Still the market leader l think but share is shrinking. 10 years ago, at least 30% were wearing Nike at my gym. Probably more like 5% now. Seems like most are working hard at finding esoteric brands or wearing Chuck Taylor's or retro something or another.
NKE down 30% in the last year and down over 60% from its 2021 high.
Get woke, go broke. The cancer is unrelenting.
Its more to do with nike deprioitizing local indie retailers, running clubs, and minimizing their product line. The nike tempo short used to be available in like 100 colors. Now nike has a less recognizable women's short available in 8 or so.
Also when you don't see nike in the retail store, you don't think to go to nike.com when you need products online.
I don't think identity politics moved the needle in terms of sales for them.
It probably didn't MAJORLY move the needle, but it didn't help them. Getting Dylan Mulvaney to prance around in a sports bra was wasted ad money that Nike could have used to put that bra on a hot influencer/admired athlete. No woman wants to look like Dylan Mulvaney, no matter how progressive they are.
Trading at 40% of its high point, this has to be one of the worst-managed companies over the last decade. Analysts think the core problem is a lack of innovation and cutting ties with their brick-and-mortar retail sector, but ask any runner, and they will say the shoes are terrible and the clothing is second-rate quality at best. And don't fool yourself; running is still the core driver at Nike.
I've posted a few times on the situation at Nike while it was happening and this is still the most puzzling underlying narrative that (was?) at play.
Nike is the largest sporting goods brand by f-ing miles. Don't forget that. They are still twice the size of adidas in terms of cap and that is even after they have been absolutely hammered in really the last 4 years. The still made twice as much money as adi in 2024 too (25 vs 51 billion).
Usually two dynamics happen in this industry. Nike kind of gets complacent with being so dominant and other brands get lucky with something and it creates a 1-2 year "dent" in their dominance (I think of adidas lucking out with the Ultra Boost and Kanye in 2015/16) or other brands, desperate to make up ground, come up with idiotic strategies sold to desperate boards and shareholders which almost always backfire and keep Nike in its king seat at the table. The amount of times adidas got a little momentum and then was like "now it's time to refine operations and go lean" or something similar was comical and it always backfired.
What is so unique about this, is how Nike did this to themselves for absolutely no good reason. They were number 1. They were dominating. They were forcing other brands into stupid "catch-up" measures even though catching up is never going to happen. And then Phil hired a f-ing business consultant to run their sports brand and it's impossible to rationalize why. One guy was able to come in and convince a board or directors and it's founder that sports as we knew it was "dead" - shopping in stores was over, people don't ever want to do that again and the future of sports wasn't in a community of other humans, it was going to be done virtually in front of a f-ing screen or with a VR headset on. And this awesome company that was founded on the total opposite - it's more well-know brand slogan is literally "just do it" - referring to getting out there and just competing, was like - yep, yes that sounds like what the future of sports is going to be.
Like that is exactly what you would do if you were down 8 with 5 seconds and one play left to score and go for 2 to tie the game. Hail Mary and cross your fingers. Except Nike was up 8 with 5 seconds to go and that needless Hail Mary was picked off and returned for the TD and 2pt conversion. The decision to hire Donahoe and let him car-wreck the brand so bad it will need at least another 3-4 years to recover (so a decade total) goes down as one of the worst and most needless decisions in recent corporate history. Yes a lot of brands were driven into the ground by stupid owners and CEO's and eventually folded. But it's hard to think of one that was SO dominant in such a small sector that f-ed it up this badly as has done here Nike.
"Lack of innovation" "hard to do great product when you're at home" - utter BS. Nike has always had newness and innovation and more of it than anyone else - even during "covid". But you can't be a sports brand and then decide you want to be a VR e-comm brand that figuratively pissed all over the partners that helped it become great (FL, DSG and your mom and pop stores).
And yet Donahoe walked away with 29 million in 2024 alone and god knows how much when he was fired. Must be nice huh. This decade of Nike should be a case study in every management textbook about the dangers of deviating from what bought you to the table as a brand.
This post was edited 44 seconds after it was posted.
I have faith that Nike will mount a comeback. They will not enjoy the absolute domination that they once had because the industry caught up and many former Nike talents are working at competitors. The new CEO, Elliott Hill, is clearing out Donahoe hires, restocking the ranks with true believers, and repairing relationships with key retailers. Like you said, this will take 3-4 years.
I am a Nike retiree and still get some good inside knowledge. What excites me is that they are restructuring the running division and placing a renewed emphasis on innovation and athlete focused products. It will take another year or so to see those in stores but, rest assured, Nike Running has been rescued from the consultants that thought lifestyle products were the way forward.
Global trade is the only speed bump in the way. China remains a huge under tapped market for Nike. Hopefully Trump’s blustering buffoonery won’t cause the emerging Chinese consumer class to favor homegrown Li Ning, Anya, and 361 over American legacy brands.
I like to go in their stores and see what they got new in stock and it's all pretty high quality well designed stuff. I think they really targeted a certain aspect of the hip streetwear-like population and are definitely bordering on pretentious but I can't blame them for trying to target the youth. I think they're working hard to stay relevant I really can't see them going anywhere, they're prices are pretty high and most of the younger generation is just trying to stay well nourished and sheltered lol
Nike went direct-to-consumer for way too long, ignoring most of the main running shoe retailers - probably at the worst possible time.
As the pandemic hit, people wanted to buy more Hokas. Why? Because they were EVERYWHERE. And everyone from their grandma to their weirdly fast cousin wanted to talk about how comfortable they were. Running and walking outdoors was about the only thing people could do to get fresh air, and other shoe companies made a targeted effort to bring people who didn't run into their brand.
Hoka seems to have targeted the PT/Podiatrist route for medical recommendations, but also made their shoes available. They are not a better brand, and (subjectively) have worse running shoes, but they are more accessible for the person just starting out. Whereas Nike focused so damn hard on innovating their top-of-the-line, the trainers began to suffer.
Now, they're getting back into stores. They made a damn good shoe in the Vomero 18 at a price point that falls smack-dab in the middle of most shoes these days ($150). I think their business practices were misguided, and had weirdly misplaced priorities, but I can't say that as much now.
There's no evidence to show that they experienced any loss from going "woke" outside of a 3 month span directly after Kaepernick's ad. Then they were back to normal. I'd imagine there's much more evidence connected to them failing to connect on a grassroots level (and the connection with Salazar, for the runner side of things) that leads to a lack of sales, than any contrived notion of "wokeness" interfering.
Is there an athletics brand that is doing well? it just seems like a really crowded market. I guess maybe Hoka and Lululemon? I like Saucony but apparently they are doing bad... I think they come out with new models too fast so there are always older ones available for sale.
Saucony's shoe models became convoluted and redundant. So we've got the:
endorphin elite: 'the premier racing shoe'
okay so what is the endorphin pro? The training version or cheaper racer? Oh no, that's the endorphin speed. Oh no wait it's the kinvara pro...no, the endorphin trainer! Four plated models all serving the same category. People are confused. And it sucks bc I agree they make some really good models here and there but they just get lost in the clutter and discontinue them
It’s pretty sad honestly, as I ran in the base-level Kinvaras for years and felt they were a pretty versatile daily trainer, particularly for how cheap they were.
10 years ago Nike announced internally that they wanted to be a premium brand and the prices went up as a result. They also decided direct to consumer was more profitable and started cutting out retailers. Turns out that was all a bad idea. People want to try on shoes.
Then they hired JD and Rat and brought in their own army of know nothings who flipped the place upside down. JD told the company that the employees asked for layoffs. He actually said the employees asked for change, then blamed the layoffs on the desire for change. The re-orgs were botched and had to be re-done multiple times. A lot of good people left.
At the same time Covid hit and quality started to suffer. The clothing and shoe lines became uninspired. I'm still waiting for the turnaround.
Is there an athletics brand that is doing well? it just seems like a really crowded market. I guess maybe Hoka and Lululemon? I like Saucony but apparently they are doing bad... I think they come out with new models too fast so there are always older ones available for sale.
I think On is doing well, but that is probably more to do with it being a status symbol for walkers than the athletic part of the business necessarily. It feels like Nikes big problem is their apparel and/or athleisure offerings (including footwear). Who’s buying besides Sneakerheads and performance athletes?
Like Nike, most of their revenue and clout comes from other sports, and casual wear (which comes from marketing in non-running sports).
Unlike Nike in basketball, German-rooted Adidas is HUGE in soccer/football, owning product placement in the sport with the excellent Predator 3. The leads to every man under 50 in Europe choosing Adidas for their pick-up soccer game, jogging shoes or sweatshirt.
Meanwhile Nike placement in basketball is collapsing.
Nike went direct-to-consumer for way too long, ignoring most of the main running shoe retailers - probably at the worst possible time.
Good point.
In the 2010s, I talked to owners of local stores who Nike refused to deal with.
Big shops, the leading or only serious running stores in cities with populations ~300k up to 1M+.
Nike seemed to think that being in larger non-specialty megastores like Dick's (or SportChek in Canada) was more efficient that dealing with independent operators, but missed the fact that local stores sponsor races, have clubs and clinics running out of their shops, etc, etc.
A generation later, real runners who wouldn't be caught dead in Dick's have been buying NB, Hoka, Saucony etc (who actually stock in their local shops), and are now buying same for their kids, etc etc.
Nike angled themselves out of view to the Generation X and millennial local club/crew runners.
Its more to do with nike deprioitizing local indie retailers, running clubs, and minimizing their product line.
This.
In fact, the very un-woke decision to refuse to stock in local shops was a big part of their collapse among club/crew runners. They missed a huge opportunity during the 2020s running boom, by being basically invisible among local shops and clubs by 2015.
This is from direct observation: I know multiple shop owners who Nike refused to stock based on sales volumes, and multiple clubs who Nike stopped working with based on... who knows.
1) Tried to go direct to consumer without realizing the main reason people bought their so so shoes was because they were at Dicks (Brooks filled the voided and are eating their lunch)
2) They don't make good average Joe shoes - Hokas, Brooks again, On - top sales aren't with runners - nurses, doctors, waiters, dads at baseball fields - they totally missed the max cushion shoes
3) 100% sourced from China - just got hit with a 20% mark up via tariffs likely to get more soon. Other brands get from China (namely like Sketchers) but Nike isn't trying to sell cheap shoes
4) Bought into the Sneak reselling bubble - like NFTs and 99% of Cyptro - it was a short term bubble, allowing them to sell $20 shoes for like $1k, that bubble popped
5) More competition at the price point they are going for - Nike Pegasus ($140), they only can sell those at a sale price around $90, where Hokas or Ons get sold every day at your local running store for $150 to the guy trying to find something to help his feet
They lost their mojo. It started around the time of Kolin K nonsense. I'm not saying that caused it but something started to slide. Young people just don't hold Nike brand to high esteem the people in 40s and older do. Hoka and On are considered much more in now. I believe the overpriced basketball shoes market has crashed as well. It's all marketing. They can probably pull a comeback but you don't know these things. You have to willing to take a bigger loss on the stock here. It can happen or not. Bill Ackman can afford to wait around because he has many winners like Chipotle and Target. He didn't get in on the bottom with those stocks. They went against him for years before they roared back.
I think On is doing well, but that is probably more to do with it being a status symbol for walkers than the athletic part of the business necessarily. It feels like Nikes big problem is their apparel and/or athleisure offerings (including footwear). Who’s buying besides Sneakerheads and performance athletes?
Like Nike, most of their revenue and clout comes from other sports, and casual wear (which comes from marketing in non-running sports).
Unlike Nike in basketball, German-rooted Adidas is HUGE in soccer/football, owning product placement in the sport with the excellent Predator 3. The leads to every man under 50 in Europe choosing Adidas for their pick-up soccer game, jogging shoes or sweatshirt.
Meanwhile Nike placement in basketball is collapsing.
Adidas isn't do well either, their stock is still lower than it was before covid... their casual shoes make a lot less money than Nike's casual shoes after they dropped Kanye, and they couldn't even afford to sponsor the German national team anymore(who are going over to Nike).