He will also need a WR in an Olympic event (1500m or 5000m), the 10,000m Olympic Gold, and a World Cross Gold if he really wants to lock down the Ultimate-GOAT status.
Thank you for clearly defining the rules for everyone
I really don't see why there needs to be all these comparisons between athletes all the time. Trying to compare athletes who have never raced each other and have lived in completely different eras is absurd to me. If the fields are completely different, why should we compare the accolades in medals from two athletes?
Because it's fun to dream about it and we do it in every sport with the greats. Why should running be any different? Btw, he himself has stated his goals of being the greatest ever so even he is interested in "comparisons between athletes" and he is including himself.
Is it logical or rational? No it's not but most people recognize that - it doesn't make it "absurd" at all. Relax.
I'm relaxed, just stating how it looks to me.
On a side note, here are Ingebrigtsen's comments on being compared to other historical athletes right after winning the 1500m final on Sunday.
Ingebrigsten is just too good. Moves down to 1500m and wins there. Best of 2:26.7. Moves up to 5000m and wins there. Euro XC dominance. Simply the best.
2000, 3000 and 2mile marks are off the chart. Incredible runner.
Once he completes the double this summer or atleast wins the 1500m, and sets a WR in either the 1500 or 5000m, I don’t see anyway how he hasn’t matched Hicham El Guerrouj.
I believe El G was 7-3 in 1500m championship finals.
Jakob is 2-5 after this win. Pretty sure that ship has sailed.
This thread is not just about the 1500m. Stay on topic.
That's fine and you are entitled to your opinion. And if you don't want to think about how Jakob compares in the annuls of track and field history versus other historical greats then don't. Compare him to Hagos Gebrhiwet and Josh Kerr, enjoy.
As for Jakobs comments? And? It's a soundbite mate. A year ago he said this:
On how winning gold in Tokyo was hollow but he quickly got back to work as he wants to be the GOAT
“I was chasing that Olympic title my whole life all the way to Tokyo so there was an emptiness afterwards,” he says. “But I quickly got back to where I had been because my goal was never only to win the 1,500m gold medal. My goal was to be the best runner in history....”
“(It would take) Five or six [Olympic] gold medals, to be better than all the different runners in all the disciplines. That would be the end of the discussion. And the goal is never to have the discussion again.”
The straight-talking Norwegian on his rival Josh Kerr, becoming the best of all time and why the 1,500m ??? in which he???s the Olympic champion ??? is his worst event
These guys change their narratives all the time to suit the situations they are in. But Jakob absolutely cares how he figures all-time and so he should. He's the only guy of this generation that has ability to. If he is invested then others can be too.
That's fine and you are entitled to your opinion. And if you don't want to think about how Jakob compares in the annuls of track and field history versus other historical greats then don't. Compare him to Hagos Gebrhiwet and Josh Kerr, enjoy.
As for Jakobs comments? And? It's a soundbite mate. A year ago he said this:
On how winning gold in Tokyo was hollow but he quickly got back to work as he wants to be the GOAT
“I was chasing that Olympic title my whole life all the way to Tokyo so there was an emptiness afterwards,” he says. “But I quickly got back to where I had been because my goal was never only to win the 1,500m gold medal. My goal was to be the best runner in history....”
“(It would take) Five or six [Olympic] gold medals, to be better than all the different runners in all the disciplines. That would be the end of the discussion. And the goal is never to have the discussion again.”
These guys change their narratives all the time to suit the situations they are in. But Jakob absolutely cares how he figures all-time and so he should. He's the only guy of this generation that has ability to. If he is invested then others can be too.
Great context here.
We have to go back historically, and make some ground rules on this because Hicham El Guerrouj was known as the "King of the Mile" of course. With his number of global titles and the two most important World Records, that was earned and still stands.
However, when we zoom out I think it's fair to say Nourredine Morceli actually was the better 1500/mile racer based on his championships record in his prime ('91-'96) without pacing help and his strength as a kicker. Some might lump Coe into this, but I think we have to acknowledge his injury history, and the PB gap involved.
Now for Jakob, he doesn't have a pacer in global championships and he so far hasn't had the luck of El Guerrouj who saw his biggest early rival taken out by politics/a car crash (Ngeny), and then his next rival an initial EPO positive. Jakob hasn't faced a softer field like the '01 and '03 Champs yet, and he didn't have a pacer like El Guerrouj did for '97, '99, '00, and '01.
In Jakob's ledger for any GOAT conversation is his records at 2 miles and 3,000 and 3 straight golds in the 5,000. That pushes him into the range to surpass El Guerrouj over time. So the next target in Kenenisa Bekele, who has Jakob-like dominance at the 10,000 and hardware and fast times at his secondary event in the 5,000. Bekele is also the greatest Cross Country runner of all time. The knock on him is after double-gold in 2009 his only major, major achievement was his sub 2:02 marathon. Big but that leaves room for Jakob to surpass him as a road racer. Another way through is taking down his marks in the 5,000 and 10,000, and even adding hardware in the 10,000. We'll see, he's young and he's got a chance.
Paradoxically, it might be harder to become the GOAT of 1500/mile running despite El G's flaws than the GOAT of distance running. But that's because of Jakob's versatility, and the fact that his absolute sweet spot might be at 3,000 and not 1,500.
Because El Guerrouj, when not tripped, never missed out on a medal when he was -5000 odds to medal? Put prime El Guerrouj in a 2020s championship race and he wins 95% of the time - you obviously can’t drop him with a fast pace, nor can you out kick him off a fast pace either
Um….didn’t he trip and get last in a final he 100% had high odds to medal in?
I meant in terms of 1500/5000m greatness. Nobody will ever surpass El Guerrouj just as a 1500m runner, I agree with you on that.
It seems pretty ridiculous to not lump in El G as a 5000m guy. He had the opportunity to contest it in 1997, 1999, and possibly 2001. He also won an indoor 3000m title. I guess we will just forget about Jakob’s 5000m titles….what? If El G was not a 5000m or a 1500/5000m guy, then how was he capable of beating Bekele. I think you’re contradicting yourself.
In my mind, they both have the same Olympic Golds, and by next year’s time, may possibly have the same # of world championship golds which is the subject of my post. That plus a WR in the 15 or 5000m…what argument is there against him matching El G? Longevity? Difficulty of competition? (I think Jakob has faced more difficult fields in the WC 5000m), His longstanding records? His Indoor WC golds (I could see these as a counterpoint).
I'll give you two reasons and they relate to each other
1) Ingebrigtsen has been running the 5000m at major events since he was 17 years old. El G didn't run a major 5000m until 2003 which was the penultimate year of his career. Jakob has literally raced the distance every single year he's been a pro (except for 2020 for circumstances out of his control).Hicham had a 10 season pro career and only 2 of them he even touched the distance. Jakob is in his 7th season as has run championships/races over the distance in every single one of them. How you possible the compare the two? One guy is clearly more focussed on the distance than the other?
2) Why is that? Hicham was a 1500m runner who was also very very good at the 3000/5000m. Jakob is a 3000/5000m runner who is very very good at the 1500m and that is essence of this all. Hicham would paste Jakob over 800m in a time trial - Jakob would paste Hicham over 3000m/5000m in a time trial. They are different runners physiologically.
The only event we can accurately compare them both over in the 1500m but I personally don't even think that is fair to Jakob. It's just that he gives us the chance to because he continues to race so many of them.
Um….didn’t he trip and get last in a final he 100% had high odds to medal in?
Dude, come on now. Really?
You're going to hold that against him? That could happen to anyone in one of those races - if Jakob fell in this years 5000m final and finishes last does that count against him?
Btw I always felt it was unfair on Morceli to say he wouldn't have won in Atlanta unless El G had fallen but this is the reason why people say that...
Once he completes the double this summer or atleast wins the 1500m, and sets a WR in either the 1500 or 5000m, I don’t see anyway how he hasn’t matched Hicham El Guerrouj.
Match him as what exactly. The #2 most accomplished 1500-5000 runner behind Paavo Nurmi?
That's fine and you are entitled to your opinion. And if you don't want to think about how Jakob compares in the annuls of track and field history versus other historical greats then don't. Compare him to Hagos Gebrhiwet and Josh Kerr, enjoy.
As for Jakobs comments? And? It's a soundbite mate. A year ago he said this:
On how winning gold in Tokyo was hollow but he quickly got back to work as he wants to be the GOAT
“I was chasing that Olympic title my whole life all the way to Tokyo so there was an emptiness afterwards,” he says. “But I quickly got back to where I had been because my goal was never only to win the 1,500m gold medal. My goal was to be the best runner in history....”
“(It would take) Five or six [Olympic] gold medals, to be better than all the different runners in all the disciplines. That would be the end of the discussion. And the goal is never to have the discussion again.”
These guys change their narratives all the time to suit the situations they are in. But Jakob absolutely cares how he figures all-time and so he should. He's the only guy of this generation that has ability to. If he is invested then others can be too.
I do think about how he compares and I also believe he does care even if he doesn't say so. I just simply don't care how he compares as of today because he has many more years in him to cement his name even further.
Once his career is over then we can look back and see how far he might have gone, remember all the great races and enjoy rewatching them. Because as much as we may want to discuss it, regardless of any athlete's accomplishments, the GOAT debate ends up being chosen subjectively on who we have our soft spot for.
Well he's going to win the 5000m unless either Fisher, Aregawi or Gebrhiwet can channel the ghosts of either Komen or Bekele and take it to him in the last 2000m like he's never experienced before. The thing is, I don't see that happening. The 5000m still seems like a massive unknown in terms of a time/his PR because where is he going to go for it and is he going to go for the WR in what would basically be his first actual attempt at a fast 5000?
So it's all about the 1500m this year and what happens. I haven't really shifted on my opinion re his potential which is I think he can break 3.27.0 again and get close to running under 3.26.5 - but 3.25.X is a little bit too far. I do think he can win the world title though - he's experienced enough in 3 global losses to I think know by now how he is going to do that without someone pacing him to 1350m in an empty stadium like Tokyo in 2021.
Tough to match El G purely as a 1500m/miler. Really he needs both WR's there and at least the world title this year and in Beijing but even then that's tough. El G finished his career with a gold and silver from the OG's (I don't know if Jakob will even match this) a world silver and 4 straight golds.
I also don't think we can/should lump El G in as a 5000m guy. He cared about it for 2 seasons and in that tiny window he ran 12.50 in his only attempt at a time, gained a silver from the worlds and a gold from the Olympics and most importantly he beat Bekele in both of those races who is arguably still the 5000m GOAT and was the WR holder in Athens.
Paris hurt his legacy a lot - fairly or unfairly. He had gone back to back there and pulled off the double this could really be a different conversation.
Funny, I'd put his chances of a 1500 WR higher than him winning the WC 1500. He just hasn't given any indication that he wants to change his tactics. He just says he wants to win from the front to prove he's better than everyone (sidenote: Idk why he has this attitude towards the 1500 when he's happy to sit for 4600m in the 5k and then kick). I still wanna see how he fares if he makes the pace honest for 500-700m then makes it a brutal last 1k-800, but I don't see any evidence that that's what he wants to do. Rather, I see him just wanting to get into good enough shape to frontrun the race, which he probably sees as soloing a 3:26 high after what happened at the Olympics.
Unless he makes a similar drop to the 1500/mile records that he made to the 3k record, I don't think he can ever match El G. Not even a knock on Jakob, I just don't think he's a pure 1500 guy like El G was. It was definitely possible after 2021 when he won gold at like age 20, but he's lost 3 championships since then, and I don't see him winning the next 4, which would surely put him above El G. I think El G will reign supreme as the best 1500 guy ever (maybe Hocker or one of the young guys could overtake him, but we're 5+ years away from that at minimum), but Jakob can certainly solidify himself as the GOAT distance runner in the next few years. 1500 or mile outdoor record, 5k record, and a few more 5k golds plus some other medals. A 1500 gold would go a long way for his legacy, as would a 10k gold or a double at WCs/Olys.
I meant in terms of 1500/5000m greatness. Nobody will ever surpass El Guerrouj just as a 1500m runner, I agree with you on that.
It seems pretty ridiculous to not lump in El G as a 5000m guy. He had the opportunity to contest it in 1997, 1999, and possibly 2001. He also won an indoor 3000m title. I guess we will just forget about Jakob’s 5000m titles….what? If El G was not a 5000m or a 1500/5000m guy, then how was he capable of beating Bekele. I think you’re contradicting yourself.
In my mind, they both have the same Olympic Golds, and by next year’s time, may possibly have the same # of world championship golds which is the subject of my post. That plus a WR in the 15 or 5000m…what argument is there against him matching El G? Longevity? Difficulty of competition? (I think Jakob has faced more difficult fields in the WC 5000m), His longstanding records? His Indoor WC golds (I could see these as a counterpoint).
I'll give you two reasons and they relate to each other
1) Ingebrigtsen has been running the 5000m at major events since he was 17 years old. El G didn't run a major 5000m until 2003 which was the penultimate year of his career. Jakob has literally raced the distance every single year he's been a pro (except for 2020 for circumstances out of his control).Hicham had a 10 season pro career and only 2 of them he even touched the distance. Jakob is in his 7th season as has run championships/races over the distance in every single one of them. How you possible the compare the two? One guy is clearly more focussed on the distance than the other?
2) Why is that? Hicham was a 1500m runner who was also very very good at the 3000/5000m. Jakob is a 3000/5000m runner who is very very good at the 1500m and that is essence of this all. Hicham would paste Jakob over 800m in a time trial - Jakob would paste Hicham over 3000m/5000m in a time trial. They are different runners physiologically.
The only event we can accurately compare them both over in the 1500m but I personally don't even think that is fair to Jakob. It's just that he gives us the chance to because he continues to race so many of them.
To be fair to Jakob, he almost never does 5000m races throughout the year (notice he didn't qualify for Paris or Budapest by means of the WA standard), he is just too good at it and has been able to win 3 consecutive global titles
Also, to say that this is his 7th season as a runner, you could also say it is his 10th season (since he raced the steeplechase at the Rio Olympics), or that it is his 5th season (if we don't count 2020 for obvious reasons).
What I want to say with this is that maybe I wouldn't fully count his 2019 season as a fully developed athlete, to then compare his Doha losses as some other posters are doing with Hicham's (I am not saying that you particularly are doing this). I'd think of it as to counting Laros last year results in Paris, Myers potentially this year, Hocker in Tokyo... as awesome achievements rather than losses.
We are seeing many athletes reach the global stage at very young ages, but that doesn't mean they are fully developed and we should count their non wins as bad results, to then use them to evaluate their position as the best ever athlete over 1500m
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Funny, I'd put his chances of a 1500 WR higher than him winning the WC 1500. He just hasn't given any indication that he wants to change his tactics. He just says he wants to win from the front to prove he's better than everyone (sidenote: Idk why he has this attitude towards the 1500 when he's happy to sit for 4600m in the 5k and then kick). I still wanna see how he fares if he makes the pace honest for 500-700m then makes it a brutal last 1k-800, but I don't see any evidence that that's what he wants to do. Rather, I see him just wanting to get into good enough shape to frontrun the race, which he probably sees as soloing a 3:26 high after what happened at the Olympics.
Unless he makes a similar drop to the 1500/mile records that he made to the 3k record, I don't think he can ever match El G. Not even a knock on Jakob, I just don't think he's a pure 1500 guy like El G was. It was definitely possible after 2021 when he won gold at like age 20, but he's lost 3 championships since then, and I don't see him winning the next 4, which would surely put him above El G. I think El G will reign supreme as the best 1500 guy ever (maybe Hocker or one of the young guys could overtake him, but we're 5+ years away from that at minimum), but Jakob can certainly solidify himself as the GOAT distance runner in the next few years. 1500 or mile outdoor record, 5k record, and a few more 5k golds plus some other medals. A 1500 gold would go a long way for his legacy, as would a 10k gold or a double at WCs/Olys.
That's not bad logic at all - I see that and it makes sense.
I guess I look at it in terms of totally arbitrary "percentages". I feel like he has a 30% chance of the WR just because it is such a tough time he has to beat and how that would have to come together (2.45.5 at 1200 and still run the equivalent of a 53.9 last lap - ouch). But I totally get you with the World Champs position but this is why I put those odds slightly higher (than my arbitrary 30%). I have to believe Paris was a big turning point for him. He was complacent in Eugene, I do think he was sick in Budapest but in Paris he got to run the exact race he wanted to and thought would destroy the field - and it didn't. I think that was the wakeup call for him that it's really not easy to just go out and recklessly try and blow these guys away from the front because guess what, they are all really good too. What you said is his best path to win - a brutal last 900-1000m and you are also right we haven't seen any evidence outdoors he will do this because I think he's never had the kick in the teeth like he got last year in Paris. I do think he's going to adjust, I think we have seen some signs of this brewing indoors with the way he's been racing these finals. I could be totally wrong but that's just an opinion.
I meant in terms of 1500/5000m greatness. Nobody will ever surpass El Guerrouj just as a 1500m runner, I agree with you on that.
It seems pretty ridiculous to not lump in El G as a 5000m guy. He had the opportunity to contest it in 1997, 1999, and possibly 2001. He also won an indoor 3000m title. I guess we will just forget about Jakob’s 5000m titles….what? If El G was not a 5000m or a 1500/5000m guy, then how was he capable of beating Bekele. I think you’re contradicting yourself.
In my mind, they both have the same Olympic Golds, and by next year’s time, may possibly have the same # of world championship golds which is the subject of my post. That plus a WR in the 15 or 5000m…what argument is there against him matching El G? Longevity? Difficulty of competition? (I think Jakob has faced more difficult fields in the WC 5000m), His longstanding records? His Indoor WC golds (I could see these as a counterpoint).
I'll give you two reasons and they relate to each other
1) Ingebrigtsen has been running the 5000m at major events since he was 17 years old. El G didn't run a major 5000m until 2003 which was the penultimate year of his career. Jakob has literally raced the distance every single year he's been a pro (except for 2020 for circumstances out of his control).Hicham had a 10 season pro career and only 2 of them he even touched the distance. Jakob is in his 7th season as has run championships/races over the distance in every single one of them. How you possible the compare the two? One guy is clearly more focussed on the distance than the other?
2) Why is that? Hicham was a 1500m runner who was also very very good at the 3000/5000m. Jakob is a 3000/5000m runner who is very very good at the 1500m and that is essence of this all. Hicham would paste Jakob over 800m in a time trial - Jakob would paste Hicham over 3000m/5000m in a time trial. They are different runners physiologically.
The only event we can accurately compare them both over in the 1500m but I personally don't even think that is fair to Jakob. It's just that he gives us the chance to because he continues to race so many of them.
That is El Guerrouj’s fault then for focusing on an event he is “very very good” at so late in his career. Jakob, or his father/brothers, realized he could be excellent in both events, and capitalized on this. Was there something out of El Guerrouj’s control that made him focus only on the 1500m and not on the 5000, or 800 for that matter? Or was it purely his choice? If it was his choice, then your reason seems to be just an excuse to not compare El Guerrouj against Jakob, in two events they both medaled in, and set fast marks in between (El Guerrouj with 2000m WR and 2AT 3000m).
This thread is comparing their overall greatness between events 1500m/5000m. We can include the 800m too but that seems kind of useless since neither runner did anything of significance over it. We can factor in El Guerrouj’s 4 WC titles over the 1500m, but then we can look at Jakob’s 2 (potentially 3) over 5000m in this discussion.
Funny, I'd put his chances of a 1500 WR higher than him winning the WC 1500. He just hasn't given any indication that he wants to change his tactics. He just says he wants to win from the front to prove he's better than everyone (sidenote: Idk why he has this attitude towards the 1500 when he's happy to sit for 4600m in the 5k and then kick). I still wanna see how he fares if he makes the pace honest for 500-700m then makes it a brutal last 1k-800, but I don't see any evidence that that's what he wants to do. Rather, I see him just wanting to get into good enough shape to frontrun the race, which he probably sees as soloing a 3:26 high after what happened at the Olympics.
Unless he makes a similar drop to the 1500/mile records that he made to the 3k record, I don't think he can ever match El G. Not even a knock on Jakob, I just don't think he's a pure 1500 guy like El G was. It was definitely possible after 2021 when he won gold at like age 20, but he's lost 3 championships since then, and I don't see him winning the next 4, which would surely put him above El G. I think El G will reign supreme as the best 1500 guy ever (maybe Hocker or one of the young guys could overtake him, but we're 5+ years away from that at minimum), but Jakob can certainly solidify himself as the GOAT distance runner in the next few years. 1500 or mile outdoor record, 5k record, and a few more 5k golds plus some other medals. A 1500 gold would go a long way for his legacy, as would a 10k gold or a double at WCs/Olys.
That's not bad logic at all - I see that and it makes sense.
I guess I look at it in terms of totally arbitrary "percentages". I feel like he has a 30% chance of the WR just because it is such a tough time he has to beat and how that would have to come together (2.45.5 at 1200 and still run the equivalent of a 53.9 last lap - ouch). But I totally get you with the World Champs position but this is why I put those odds slightly higher (than my arbitrary 30%). I have to believe Paris was a big turning point for him. He was complacent in Eugene, I do think he was sick in Budapest but in Paris he got to run the exact race he wanted to and thought would destroy the field - and it didn't. I think that was the wakeup call for him that it's really not easy to just go out and recklessly try and blow these guys away from the front because guess what, they are all really good too. What you said is his best path to win - a brutal last 900-1000m and you are also right we haven't seen any evidence outdoors he will do this because I think he's never had the kick in the teeth like he got last year in Paris. I do think he's going to adjust, I think we have seen some signs of this brewing indoors with the way he's been racing these finals. I could be totally wrong but that's just an opinion.
Once he completes the double this summer or atleast wins the 1500m, and sets a WR in either the 1500 or 5000m, I don’t see anyway how he hasn’t matched Hicham El Guerrouj.
Match him as what exactly. The #2 most accomplished 1500-5000 runner behind Paavo Nurmi?
I know you're not 100% serious here, and I also know that by a certain definition of "accomplished" it's almost impossible for any athlete today to have the same level of dominance of those a hundred years ago. But just to put things in context...
Paavo Nurmi's lifetime 1500m PB was 3:52, which is slower than Jess Hull and, coincidentally, the exact same time it took Ingebrigtsen to run a mile at age 17.
Nurmi's lifetime 5000m best was 14:28, over a minute slower than Mo "never push the pace" Farah's winning time in three of his five global 5k golds.
Remember Ingebrigtsen's disastrous half marathon? Turns out his average pace in that race was slightly faster than Nurmi's best at the 10k distance.
In other words, the difference in times over the past 100 years is so dramatically large that it's impossible to make any sort of reasonable comparision. This is not a Peter Snell sort of situation where a second or two for shoes and a second or two for the track surface puts him right at the modern world record. Get much before 1960 and the quality was so different it was barely even the same sport.
Um….didn’t he trip and get last in a final he 100% had high odds to medal in?
Dude, come on now. Really?
You're going to hold that against him? That could happen to anyone in one of those races - if Jakob fell in this years 5000m final and finishes last does that count against him?
Btw I always felt it was unfair on Morceli to say he wouldn't have won in Atlanta unless El G had fallen but this is the reason why people say that...
Because El G pumped him in the GP final in their only encounter post Atlanta. You're better than that comment.
Let me rephrase my post. Jakob placed 4th in the Olympic 1500m final largely due to a miscalculation on the first lap (13.3 second 100m and an overall first 400 of 54.8). This small mistake put him off the medals completely. Similarly, El Guerrouj allowed the 1996 Olympic final to go slow which allowed for a much higher chance of falling. He took this risk and placed last by tactically choosing most likely the wrong strategy. The margins were thin as well. I was simply responding to the poster who was pretending that El Guerrouj wasn’t capable of getting outside of medals in the event (He was and showed how).
btw just wanted to make note of how awesome that 96 GP Final was.
2.33.5 at the km, the 200m split from 1000m to 1200m was 25.3 (Morceli taking over). El G then dropped a 39.8 final 300m - his final 500m was 65.3, just a classic old school 1500m burn up.