To me she just looks fragile. So I am going to say no to sub 2:20. I think she has the talent but to break 2:20 you probably need to have some durability and sturdiness that she may lack. Even in super shoes, she won’t break 2:20.
McColgan only just broke 1.09 for her last half marathon (1.08.57) and she seems to have been avoiding fast courses/ good racing opportunities such as Valencia (maybe there's visa reasons for that).
But breaking 2.20 would mean her running very close to her current HM pace the whole way. I don't think there's enough leeway there, based on current form, unless she has improved in recent weeks.
odds on for a DNF or DNS. she has a horrible style not suited to the marathon. plus, she will be all alone, not fast enough to go with the leading africans, then running behind (less be honest, Purdue rarely makes a startline) and theres no others on the entry list of equal talent
Yeah, Radcliffe had horrible marathon form. So does Obiri.
Though I don't disagree on the injury-prone part.
Radcliffe had perfect running mechanics below her neck. Her bobbing head distracted that.
I'd be surprised if she does on her debut. She's not where she was when she ran 65 in Berlin a couple of years ago. Then, she could have broke 2:20. Now, I think she'll be conservative and go for 2:22.
If she was in the same shape as when she ran 30:00 10000m and 65 min half marathon she could break 2:20 fairly easily. I don't see sub 2:20 in her current shape but women seem to be able to run closer to their half marathon pace over the marathon than men. I would predict 2:21-22 if she gets the fueling right on her debut.
Purdue recently barely broke 1:12 in a half marathon in Japan (Nagoya). don’t see her being anywhere near fit enough to run with McColgan. Purdue runs 1:08/09 when she’s ready to crack a good marathon.
odds on for a DNF or DNS. she has a horrible style not suited to the marathon. plus, she will be all alone, not fast enough to go with the leading africans, then running behind (less be honest, Purdue rarely makes a startline) and theres no others on the entry list of equal talent
Hopefully she reads this post, changes her style and breaks 2:10. ...and then runs 3000 at World Indoors.
Breaks 2:10? What? It has happened once and we don't know if....?
She is not built for the marathon. With her build, she is fit for the 5k/10k and can excel at it. Ungainly stride and herky-jerky gait, quite painful to watch.
She has always run quite low milage due to injuries. Although she probably has the talent, I doubt she can build enough resilience to do the milage required
I'm going to put it out there. She holds on the leaders till 30k, fades a little, 4th in 2:17.
I think it's going to be a BIG debut.
Think Emile Cairess at the Olympics, surprisingly good but not so surprisingly as the talent was there.
#EilishFan
what have you been smoking??
Cairess ran a great olympics but wouldnt be up there in a sub 2:05 pace race and has been broken ever since
would be good to see her run well but who is she going to be running with? if Purdues ran a recent 72min half, she wont be showing up.
she also pulled out of her last scheduled marathon in the last couple of days and blamed something about the nutrition sponsorship? something to do with lucozade? all very bizarre, would this still be an issue?