defining it on medals gets complicated because it's not just your trajectory but the quality of athletes worldwide at the time. some events you could be exceptional in historical terms but the 5th best of a group of 5 dominant figures now. the stars may need to align just so to medal. other times there is jack going on in your event globally and being a good american with the ability to handle heats might get you something. even if when the event reboots with new talent, your window shrinks to near nothing again.
it can even look like you might own the next few years and then by the next cycle you get hurt and the event respools, and you're now good but not great.
someone like mondo who owns their event for years is rare, and even he loses some big ones. and his ownership comes from he keeps setting and resetting the WR.
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Unfortunately for Nico, Fisher is 7sec faster over 5k and 22sec faster over 10k and he got bronze in those events. Fisher has the better kick. Nico has ground to make up before a global medal is a reasonable ask. I'd love to see him get there, but it is not likely this year.
Agreed. Fisher is better now, and Fisher is more likely to medal this year than Nico. But Nico is much further along in his development at age 22 than Fisher was at that age. Nico's current PBs are 3:34, 7:37, 12:51, and 26:52. Fisher's PBs at the same age were 3:39, 7:39, and 13:29 (with no 10k mark). In the year Nico finished college, he made the U.S. Olympic team, and he was the 3rd-fastest 5k guy and 2nd-fastest 10k guy in the country. In the year Fisher finished college, he was the 18th-fastest 5k guy in the country.
Nico's recent PBs show he is still progressing, despite the various hiccups he's had this winter. There's a good chance he can run sub-12:50 and sub-26:40 this year if he gets in fast races. That strength combined with his 3:50 mile speed would make him formidable. If he continues to progress and avoids getting bit in the leg by dogs, I like his medal chances starting in 2027.
Ya I was basically gonna say this. I'll add in that he's been a pro for like 6 months, and he's dropped from 12:57 to 12:51, and thrown down a 3:50i mile. His new mile time is just as good as Fisher's recent 3:33 (Fisher ran a 3k WR a week later), and his 12:51 would've been faster than Fisher's indoor best like 2 weeks ago. Fisher ran 12:51/3:34 and was a medal contender outdoors. We'll have to wait and see how Nico's times convert to placement in races, but his coach got Grijalva to a 4th place at Worlds with worse PBs in every way, and Fisher came 4th/5th with similar PBs. The only reason I didn't say Nico would win a medal in 2026 is because there isn't a World Championships next year (there's some World Athletics Ultimate Championship but it's different from WCs).
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I agree, but the NCAA is also much better now (in terms of times) and I think the shoes play a huge role. Fisher also wasn't training that much in college - I think he peaked at about 70-80 mpw and 5 miles of workout volume. I also think it's almost a certainty Fisher worked harder academically and obviously wasn't at altitude either.
I think he might medal once in his career but has a decent shot at doing so. But it'd have to go all right - a good Ethiopian or Kenyan (or Ugandan) gets injured, one runs tactically terribly, and the pace is in such a range that it's not a pure fitness test but it's also not so slow either - I think a race like this year's or a bit slower (winning time 26:45-55) would be good for him in a couple of years, a fast close off a fast but not super fast pace.
But the upside for him is that he's basically a lock for US teams for the next few years, and probably won't have to peak for it either - just a down week.
Totally true about him training harder in college than Fisher, and the NCAA generally being better now, and the shoes helping and all that.
But Nico in his first year as a pro is running faster than Fisher ever had until this year (his 12:51i 5k turning into a 12:46 5k outdoors notwithstanding, we'll have to see if Nico can make the same drop).
Do we really think he doesn't have a kick? His 3:50 mile pb is just as good as Fisher's recent 1500m pb (and faster than what Fisher won 2x Olympic medals with), and it's better than Rupp's 1500/mile pbs.
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You are generally a very good poster but this is just weird. What exactly do you hope to accomplish by “cultivating a brand” on LRC? The best posters are genuine and consistent and therefore the most respected. You are a young guy-go for a run and socialize with people your age a bit. Plenty of time for you to be the old dude living on Let’s Run.
I try to balance my online and real life socialization, and I do ok for the most part. None of my real life friends care about the sport though, whereas it's the only sport I follow (although a girl I've been seeing + Auburn being ranked #1 has gotten me more into basketball lately). In my defense I made this thread while crossed after going out with some friends, so I don't feel too bad abt it. Really I should do less socializing, posting on LRC, and music making, and focus more on my studies. Alas my passion for engineering has fallen off of a cliff in the last 2 years (unless you're hiring in which case I'm a motivated aerospace engineering student looking for a job). Reading it back though I normally wouldn't go so in depth about my posting philosophy. But since you asked:
I'm not actively trying to cultivate a brand here, or accomplish anything by doing so. It's really just my normal personality; I like to argue, I like my arguments to be driven by facts, and I like to do a bit of trolling. I like to be able to defend my ideas factually, while also exploring ideas that aren't normally talked/argued about, just so I can figure out what I actually believe. I also don't like to be negative (anonymously), so I never trash athletes on here. The most you'll get from me is "This wasn't a good race, but I'm hoping their next race is better". The most consciously I've changed my posting was once I made a semi-troll post and everyone was like "Wow Peach Pit I thought you were better than this" so I started trolling a bit more, so people know I'm not better than that.
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I have to agree, it is annoying that this guy is so immature that he has to have a political line in his username. Kid just needs to grow up.
dawg I'm 22 and I graduate in like 5 months, this is the last time I can be immature and a kid and it's ok. I spent a year working 40 hours/week in an office and being a college kid is way more fun imo
Same as all USA runners which tend to not randomly pop out of nowhere like some countries....
Go to a few worlds, get in the top 10, top 5 then progress to a medal contender.
Fisher, Hobbs, Nuguse all did that. The main exception would honestly be Kenneth Rooks, but Steeple is a bit of an odd race. He did get 10th in 2023 worlds.
It is indeed, and Girma’s fall on the back stretch pretty much locked in the medalists once three and only three guys avoided the pileup that caused. But Rooks put himself out of danger by taking the lead earlier, so who knows.