Hocker generally is a bit of a slow starter and not as lethal indoors as out. In 2021, he routinely lost to Teare throughout the season (albeit in fast races) until NCAAs in March. He then ran 3:31 outdoors, faster than Teare has run in his life. In 2023, he ran 7:51 in his only indoor race (granted, with zero competition). Even in his incredible 2024 season, he was beaten badly by Kerr and Fisher at Millrose (although 8:05 for 2 miles is a strong time) and then outkicked by Beamish at indoor worlds (and we all know how good he was outdoors last year).
So history would indicate that Hocker tends to be off the pace a bit indoors, and in some ways his 3k was a continuation of that. He simply didn't have the blazing speed he usually does to outkick Fisher. Of course, he still ran 7:23, which is arguably much better than 3:46. It certainly is outdoors (closer to 3:44 imo), although you could make an argument indoor tracks are much more forgiving running 59s than 56s. Both were narrowly faster than the prior world record, which would indicate fairly equal times (but then you can get into the question of whether or not they are equivalent world records).
We can also look at the competition: Grant Fisher finished 3rd in the 5000m and 10000m last year, so theoretically this was a great middle ground for Hocker and Fisher. While you could argue the mile is Hocker's better event (and therefore he would run a better performance), you also have to acknowledge that Fisher was also outside of his comfort zone, and both Nuguse and Kessler were firmly in theirs. Considering Nuguse finished 3rd in the 1500m and Kessler finished 5th, and they were both very close in this race, it would stand to reason that it would take a performance worthy of a medal contender to finish where they did...and similarly it took a performance worthy of a medal contender to finish where Grant and Hocker did (albeit slightly better medals/contenders).
Ultimately I think it's clear it would've been extremely close, and while normally I would always favor Hocker in a close race due to his killer instinct, I think in a paced time trial, on an indoor track, in early February...it's just not his zone. I think he would be in third on the final lap, get around Kessler, but ultimately fail to catch Nuguse.
That said, I think his 3000m race was a clear sign that he is not slowing down, and considering last year he went from losing to Beamish to beating Kerr and Jakob from indoor to outdoor, I expect we will see him rebound from this and absolutely crush the world in Tokyo this year. Maybe even break the WR. The sky is the limit for him right now.