If we successfully deport all illegals would this essentially make unemployment nonexistent?

first off, when you use the word "successfully" to describe the event don't pretend you're neutral.

Y’all aren’t very good at economics.

Immigrants leaving would affect demand. Most employment is not driven by companies hiring people, it’s driven by people requiring goods/services and companies supplying those goods/services.

11 million fewer consumers would cause a drastic decrease in jobs. Lots of people would get laid off. Fortunately, there would be some openings in farming and hotel cleaning etc!

So if say 11 million fewer people require 1000 fewer surgeons, we can be confident that with their knowledge of anatomy, those surgeons could be successful working in a meat packing plant!

second, you seem to be making a similar error to those who think if trump cans 2m federal workers via buyouts then magically 2m private sector jobs just pop into existence for them to fill. that we don't go into recession or depression when some huge chunk of them are actually unemployed, unproductive, default on debt, foreclosed on mortgage, evicted from apartments.

more specifically, like the one poster said, you're assuming total elasticity of citizens to doing the work when in reality for about a century we have relied on them to do farmwork in some areas, and maybe half a century for construction and landscaping in many cities. i grew up mowing lawns as a side gig. i stopped when i got wage work and found i was constantly underbid for every yard. then got my degrees and moved past it.

nope, i think you folks are just acting out a long list of GOP agenda points, without regard to what happens when you do it all at once. for all of you dingbats making fun of technical management of the economy, it's done delicately and with some skill. you're then just like fire this batch then deport that bunch and let's just make an economic experiment of it.

i think you'll tank the economy then there will be no one to do some jobs, most important being stuff related to agriculture and food, and that's dangerous to civilization.

i also think you don't grasp that, say, a government statistician canned from federal employment, making $70k, is not "like for like" with him working at a meat packing plant, picking crops, or mowing lawns. i don't even think those jobs will find a ton of takers from young citizens.

maybe it's the democrats' recent pro-corporate phase but it's odd no one mentions the old immigration policy critique that "someone was hiring all these migrants." that the GOP used to be seen as hypocrites on the issue, hiring people for janitor work for their companies, to save on paying someone minimum wage, then blabbing to the public how they will send immigration for them. which hypocrisy ended up leading to, say, the amnesties of the 1980s. let's go ahead and admit they are cooked into the american cake, and solve the legality problem by making them citizens unless they are criminals.

setting aside some of the really cultural aspects here, that a chunk of the beefing is simply small town bigots who can't stand that jose and juanita now are moving into their small town. not unlike the suburban folks who freak out when culturally black folks start integrating their lily white suburbs they got because of segregation and redlining.

Totally false.

let's be real, this is just revolutionaries swinging sledgehammers to government, who hate government, who entertain their voters, and few of whom have considered the practical, statistical implications of their ideas.

i am not in the musk-touting business but even he basically said this would tank the economy but he hopes we'd after the bust recover and rebuild something in their little deregulated utopia. essentially, "take your medicine and we'll see what happens."

i am just going to remind you folks what happened when, say, covid outbreaks hit meatpacking plants or farms.

as in, store shelves were empty of things.

covid got spun as evil lockdowns but it also pointed out the importance of a healthy, large workforce, willing to show up for work, even some of the gross stuff. this is no longer a nation of farmers. we depend on groceries and their vendors for food. if you disrupt the upstream supplies we will have basic civilizational issues.

personally i think buried beneath the anti-government and -welfare rhetoric, some GOP like the idea of life having a little more peril to it. that we will let people starve. that there may not be enough of some stuff. and that you'd better get to work if you want anything. if some people have to die to motivate you to play along, them's the breaks, life's not fair.

It would be a lot like what is going on in Russia right now. There would be a shortage of workers. Wages would go up, but inflation would also surge. Growth would stall because there aren't enough workers and any industry that can move out of the US to find workers would do so. That would give us stagflation.

If you really want to do something to help low wage workers, make all the undocumented workers US citizens and make it easier to unionize, collective bargain, etc. (all contained in the PRO Act, which centrist dems are afraid to promote).

Lastly, what Trump is doing is largely performative. Trump has not said a word about H2-A visas (temporary agricultural workers). Big Ag will get Trump to loosen up on H2-A visas to get people back into the country to replace workers who are deported or go into hiding to avoid immigration sweeps. Then, they will overstay their visas and replace those who were just deported for by and large doing the same thing.

Unemployment is historically low. Wages have been rising at a very good clip compared to years of stagnation. The only reason people are mad about immigrants is because they are black and brown and play regaton music too loud on the weekend. Trump is deporting immigrants because his base wants to make America white again. That is why Elon does a Nazi salute when he says "it is thanks to you that the future of civilization is assured". Getting rid of the brown and black people preserves white civilization.

That's "beneficiaries," my dear.

All the houses on my block are $1 million plus.

That's it? Like I said before, "all your neighbors are unemployed poor people (e.g., Republicans) who have time to mow their own lawn but no money to pay somebody to do it for them."

It is regularly said that we need illegal immigrants to do dirty, low-wage jobs in farming, construction, and hospitality (to name the most obvious ones). The assertion is made that legal citizens simply will not do these jobs, and if we deported all the illegal immigrants there would be no one to work the farms, and we would all starve. I don't buy that. I do believe that these jobs won't be done by legal citizens at the wages currently offered. Wages for unskilled, dirty jobs would have to go up--a lot.

I think that having a permanent underclass of illegal low-wage workers is a bad thing for our country. I'm reasonably well-off and I think that I would not starve if I had to buy food at a price that reflects the actual cost of producing it with American labor paid a fair wage. However, I think a lot of folks would have a really tough time feeding themselves if that were to come about. So I find myself rather torn about whether we should deport all the illegal workers. Perhaps a large-scale, legal "guest worker" program is the right answer.

As does using the word "illegals".

Russia has trade restrictions that change the equations. In the US what is likely to happen is a bunch of places to shut down since they will no longer be profitable and the US will switch to importing stuff we used to make. Definitely cause inflation but would also result in more unemployment from the lost jobs from those closed companies. Good old stagflation was so much fun the last time…..

Scott Lincicome writes about this at The Dispatch. Scott is an economist. Past purges have led to a DROP in economic benefit even for groups that are often seen as benefitting from mass deportations.

thedispatch.com

Trump’s Deportations Will Hit American Workers, Too

Scott Lincicome

Previous expulsions of migrant laborers have proven economically harmful—even for the people the policies were supposed to help.

Open link

(Paywall likely)

1. Full employment is generally considered at 2 to 3 percent unemployment due to seasonal and normal turnover. However, what isn't captured in the unemployment rate are all the sick, lame, and lazy who aren't looking for jobs which is substantial in our rich welfare society.

2. Mass deportations are intended to get rid of the criminals Biden brought into our country and then to bring the Dems crawling on their knees to enact real immigration reform legislation. A lot of otherwise law abiding illegal immigrants will get caught up in all of this until reforms with increased legal work permits and legal immigration happens. There's a new sheriff in town. So be it.

First, it is not apparent that we are likely to deport all the illegals.
It is not clear we are even deporting more now than last month.

But also, they are trying to fire govt workers, which is going to slow down handling both illegal and legal aliens.

And anyway, I think the really big elephant in the room is the huge looming "graying of the US" problem--we haven't got enough young people. We desperately need immigration because of this problem.

That does NOT mean we need illegal immigration--legal immigration could supply people, if they could fix it.

But they would actually have to try to fix it, which would mean not just randomly firing lots of Federal workers, but rather looking at how to fix the insane delays in the existing process.

LOL. Replaced by? Expensive and scarce labor! That will do well for inflation and the cost of food.

So Kamala’s reason for wanting to give incarcerated illegal immigrants free transgender surgeries was to keep surgeons employed? Makes sense.