7:30 smashed the college record by six seconds. Strand's ready to break 3:50, the only question being whether the pacing is there or when the pacer drops if anyone maintains rather than holding back. And 7:30 doesn't indicate 13:10; it indicates 13 flat or under.
7:30 smashed the college record by six seconds. Strand's ready to break 3:50, the only question being whether the pacing is there or when the pacer drops if anyone maintains rather than holding back. And 7:30 doesn't indicate 13:10; it indicates 13 flat or under.
So, to be clear Strand a 3:35 guy once,ever is going to run almost as fast as 3:29.x Kessler did last year? 7:30 does not indicate anything other than 7:30..Nuguse went after a 5K with pacers mark at BU after a 7:28 3K 2023 and right before a 3:47.x mile and did not break 13:02.
Nuguse had run 7:28 in 2023 , then TT'ed a 5K at BU in 2024,with pacing ran 13:02, not sub 13..and he had all the surrounding marks and was fit then ,3:47.83 two weeks later.
7:30 indicates 7:30, it is a tweener distance that some run well better than others. Starnd caught the perfect storm, typically and I think all on here would agree you get aggressive pacing maybe up to 2K a little farther, barely? Strand had Wolfe that whole ride, it helps.
So, to be clear Strand a 3:35 guy once,ever is going to run almost as fast as 3:29.x Kessler did last year? 7:30 does not indicate anything other than 7:30..Nuguse went after a 5K with pacers mark at BU after a 7:28 3K 2023 and right before a 3:47.x mile and did not break 13:02.
Well Hobbs was a 3:32.6 guy coming into last year and then indoors he ran the 3:48.6 mile (worth 1s faster), got bronze at World Indoors, and then the 3:29-mid(2s faster)/1:43 etc. You can maybe he had slightly faster than 3:48.6 in him by the end of indoors to land that bronze medal, but impossible to know. Also, you could quibble if that Millrose (a true race) with some argy-bargy with Mills and uneven pacing was the perfect spot to hit a maximal mile.
Yes, Strand is only a 3:35 guy as of now, but he's run 7:30, which indicates he's much better than last year. Maybe he's a bit of a tweener, but if you run 7:30 there are few that can't hit either sub-13:05 (minimum) or sub 3:33 on the sides of the spectrum there.
To run 3:49.9 let's put that at 3:32.9 roughly. Big chunk to knock off? Yes. This is a rapidly-improving college kid, though and this might be a pure fitness test drag race.
So, to be clear Strand a 3:35 guy once,ever is going to run almost as fast as 3:29.x Kessler did last year? 7:30 does not indicate anything other than 7:30..Nuguse went after a 5K with pacers mark at BU after a 7:28 3K 2023 and right before a 3:47.x mile and did not break 13:02.
Well Hobbs was a 3:32.6 guy coming into last year and then indoors he ran the 3:48.6 mile (worth 1s faster), got bronze at World Indoors, and then the 3:29-mid(2s faster)/1:43 etc. You can maybe he had slightly faster than 3:48.6 in him by the end of indoors to land that bronze medal, but impossible to know. Also, you could quibble if that Millrose (a true race) with some argy-bargy with Mills and uneven pacing was the perfect spot to hit a maximal mile.
Yes, Strand is only a 3:35 guy as of now, but he's run 7:30, which indicates he's much better than last year. Maybe he's a bit of a tweener, but if you run 7:30 there are few that can't hit either sub-13:05 (minimum) or sub 3:33 on the sides of the spectrum there.
To run 3:49.9 let's put that at 3:32.9 roughly. Big chunk to knock off? Yes. This is a rapidly-improving college kid, though and this might be a pure fitness test drag race.
7:30 smashed the college record by six seconds. Strand's ready to break 3:50, the only question being whether the pacing is there or when the pacer drops if anyone maintains rather than holding back. And 7:30 doesn't indicate 13:10; it indicates 13 flat or under.
Rupp ran 3:50.92i and 7:30.16i about 3 weeks later. I don't know the splits, but I'd bet Rupp didn't close in 26 in his 3k. He ran 13:01i the next year. Since Strand is a miler, I think he'd be able to run faster in the mile, and probably a bit slower in the 5k. Hard to tell though since really this is opening his season and the 3k he was probably in peak xc fitness.
Nuguse had run 7:28 in 2023 , then TT'ed a 5K at BU in 2024,with pacing ran 13:02, not sub 13..and he had all the surrounding marks and was fit then ,3:47.83 two weeks later.
7:30 indicates 7:30, it is a tweener distance that some run well better than others. Starnd caught the perfect storm, typically and I think all on here would agree you get aggressive pacing maybe up to 2K a little farther, barely? Strand had Wolfe that whole ride, it helps.
I'm inclined to agree here. There have been a ton of guys to run around 7:25ish in the 3k and not do anything major in the 5k or 1500. I think the 3k is different enough from the other two events around it that you can be really good at it, but not really at anything else.
Nuguse had run 7:28 in 2023 , then TT'ed a 5K at BU in 2024,with pacing ran 13:02, not sub 13..and he had all the surrounding marks and was fit then ,3:47.83 two weeks later.
7:30 indicates 7:30, it is a tweener distance that some run well better than others. Starnd caught the perfect storm, typically and I think all on here would agree you get aggressive pacing maybe up to 2K a little farther, barely? Strand had Wolfe that whole ride, it helps.
I'm inclined to agree here. There have been a ton of guys to run around 7:25ish in the 3k and not do anything major in the 5k or 1500. I think the 3k is different enough from the other two events around it that you can be really good at it, but not really at anything else.
There haven't been "a ton of guys" running 7:25 in the 3k (outdoors or indoors) in the first place, and those who have had are / were very competitive time wise* at either 1500, 5k or both:
Ali Saidi-Saif - 3:29* / 12:50*
Haile Gebrselassie - 3:31i* / 12:39*
Nouredinne Morceli - 3:27* / 13:03
Grant Fisher - 3:34 / 12:46*
Telahun Haile Bekele - NT / 12:42*
Kenenisa Bekele - 3:32 / 12:37*
Selemon Barega - NT / 12:43*
Thierry Ndikumwenayo - 3:37 / 12:48*
I could go on for all the guys who've run sub 7:30. It's pretty clear that doing so requires elite ability at either adjacent distance, or both.
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
7:30 smashed the college record by six seconds. Strand's ready to break 3:50, the only question being whether the pacing is there or when the pacer drops if anyone maintains rather than holding back. And 7:30 doesn't indicate 13:10; it indicates 13 flat or under.
So if it's universally accepted Strand is ready to break 3:50, can someone tell me when Nathan Green - who opened at 352 this year - is going to run on one of these bouncy tracks? What's Green's next race? If Strand is breaking 3:50, then Green has a shot at breaking Kejelcha's 3:47.01 WR.
It's crazy to me that Kejelcha is that good at the mile and has so little to show for it in terms of medals in the 5000/10,000. Criminal almost.
7:30 smashed the college record by six seconds. Strand's ready to break 3:50, the only question being whether the pacing is there or when the pacer drops if anyone maintains rather than holding back. And 7:30 doesn't indicate 13:10; it indicates 13 flat or under.
So if it's universally accepted Strand is ready to break 3:50, can someone tell me when Nathan Green - who opened at 352 this year - is going to run on one of these bouncy tracks? What's Green's next race? If Strand is breaking 3:50, then Green has a shot at breaking Kejelcha's 3:47.01 WR.
It's crazy to me that Kejelcha is that good at the mile and has so little to show for it in terms of medals in the 5000/10,000. Criminal almost.
Yeah, it is crazy. The Kejelcha that shows up to championships looks like an entirely different runner than the one who pushed Jakob to the line in the Pre 3k where they both closed in 25.xx for a 7:23 race.
He and Kiplimo really stand out as underperforming medal wise compared to their times. Aregawi seems to be the only one in that group who's beginning to break that trend.
The ncaa 3k has been historically weaker than the mile, probably because of less attempts at a truly fast time. WA gives 7:30 3k indoor equivalent to 3:49.8 indoor full mi. Breaking ncaa 3k by 6s != 1mi by 3. Id bet 3:50 for the win.
So if it's universally accepted Strand is ready to break 3:50, can someone tell me when Nathan Green - who opened at 352 this year - is going to run on one of these bouncy tracks? What's Green's next race? If Strand is breaking 3:50, then Green has a shot at breaking Kejelcha's 3:47.01 WR.
It's crazy to me that Kejelcha is that good at the mile and has so little to show for it in terms of medals in the 5000/10,000. Criminal almost.
It took everything in me to not say Strand has a chance at Kejelcha's 3:47 WR in my post going over what I thought was realistic lol
Bold of you to assume Green is significantly better than Strand, but also Green opened up with a 3:50.7, not a 3:52. Green has the 3:32 pb to his name, and now a 3:50i, but both of those are about as good as Strand's 7:30. If he was racing BU, I'd be almost certain 3:50 was going down, but 3:47i is a totally different level. Even Nuguse, the year he became a 3:43 guy, and the year after, didn't break 3:47i.
People throwing out 3:48 as a possible time... Remember how insane Miles Batty running 3:54 was? That was just over ten years ago, he's barely on the top 25 list now. Shoes are a wild thing.
People throwing out 3:48 as a possible time... Remember how insane Miles Batty running 3:54 was? That was just over ten years ago, he's barely on the top 25 list now. Shoes are a wild thing.
I posted in the thread about German Fernandez's world jr record about his 3:55 being the collegiate indoor record at the time and was also astonished. 3:55 mile soloed by an 18 year old freshman lasted as the record for 3 years before it was only broken by half a second at the Wanamaker mile behind Centro! It'll be cool to see if Teare's mark stands up because 3:50 is a great time but there's guys who are clearly ready to rip it if the race goes their way. It could be like the 3k race where there's a few guys under but only the winner gets the record.
Running calculators say a 7:30 3K is the equivalent of a ~3:49 mile. Assuming Strand is better at 3000 than 1 mile (he says the 3000 is his best distance), I think he should be able to run around 3:50 for the mile, near the record.