Schweizer and Tuohy in Millrose 3K

Peach Pit wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

I don't think Tuohy was equal to Valby at 5k at their respective collegiate peaks. At her peak, Tuohy lost to Annie Rodenfels at the BU meet by 7+ seconds; Rodenfels ran 15:08 to Tuohy's 15:15. At that same meet a year later, Valby beat Rodenfels by 7+ seconds. Valby ran 14:56 to Rodenfels' 15:03. Additionally, Tuohy's 15:03 PB came in a race where she got to run behind pros (she finished 7th in that race). Valby soloed a 14:52 twice, both times in NCAA championship races. It's more accurate to say Tuohy was better at 3k and below; Valby was better at 5k and up.

That said, I look forward to Tuohy's return and I hope she breaks all her PBs this year.

Are you talking about the BU 5k in December 2022 that she ran after winning NCAA XC? I don't even think it's worth my time to explain why that's a terrible comparison, I think you're just looking for a way to disagree with me. If you think she was at her peak in December 2022, you probably just aren't worth listening to on this subject.

Her 15:03 came in May 2023, and I think most people would agree that she wasn't as good that outdoor season as she'd been during indoors.

Glad you're looking forward to her return though! Me too :) <3

McRunnin wrote:

Peach Pit wrote:

Are you talking about the BU 5k in December 2022 that she ran after winning NCAA XC? I don't even think it's worth my time to explain why that's a terrible comparison, I think you're just looking for a way to disagree with me. If you think she was at her peak in December 2022, you probably just aren't worth listening to on this subject.

Her 15:03 came in May 2023, and I think most people would agree that she wasn't as good that outdoor season as she'd been during indoors.

Glad you're looking forward to her return though! Me too :) <3

Yes, I'm talking about the BU meet that's annually held 2 weeks after the NCAA XC championships, where many athletes who are still in peak fitness from NCAA XC run fast times. You know, the same meet this academic year in which Ethan Strand and Parker Wolfe ran 7:30 in the 3k to shatter the previous collegiate record.

bumblebee wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

Yes, I'm talking about the BU meet that's annually held 2 weeks after the NCAA XC championships, where many athletes who are still in peak fitness from NCAA XC run fast times. You know, the same meet this academic year in which Ethan Strand and Parker Wolfe ran 7:30 in the 3k to shatter the previous collegiate record.

i think its pretty clear that the best shape she was ever in was February/March of 2023. Clearly in better shape than she was in for the december BU meet. the IAAF tables put her 3k as worth a 14:46 when she only ran a 15:15 in december. Im not sure she could have actually run in the 14:40's at any point as it seems like she had been doing more speed work that winter to also get a 4:24, but she was clearly in better than 15:15 shape.

A lot of people carry over great fitness and run incredible times at that december meet, but a lot of people are also burnt out after a long xc season and run faster times at a february meet at BU or UW. You can't just suggest that its a big meet a lot of people run fast at therefore everyone there is peaking perfectly.

bumblebee wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

Yes, I'm talking about the BU meet that's annually held 2 weeks after the NCAA XC championships, where many athletes who are still in peak fitness from NCAA XC run fast times. You know, the same meet this academic year in which Ethan Strand and Parker Wolfe ran 7:30 in the 3k to shatter the previous collegiate record.

i think its pretty clear that the best shape she was ever in was February/March of 2023. Clearly in better shape than she was in for the december BU meet. the IAAF tables put her 3k as worth a 14:46 when she only ran a 15:15 in december. Im not sure she could have actually run in the 14:40's at any point as it seems like she had been doing more speed work that winter to also get a 4:24, but she was clearly in better than 15:15 shape.

A lot of people carry over great fitness and run incredible times at that december meet, but a lot of people are also burnt out after a long xc season and run faster times at a february meet at BU or UW. You can't just suggest that its a big meet a lot of people run fast at therefore everyone there is peaking perfectly.

McRunnin wrote:

bumblebee wrote:

i think its pretty clear that the best shape she was ever in was February/March of 2023. Clearly in better shape than she was in for the december BU meet. the IAAF tables put her 3k as worth a 14:46 when she only ran a 15:15 in december. Im not sure she could have actually run in the 14:40's at any point as it seems like she had been doing more speed work that winter to also get a 4:24, but she was clearly in better than 15:15 shape.

A lot of people carry over great fitness and run incredible times at that december meet, but a lot of people are also burnt out after a long xc season and run faster times at a february meet at BU or UW. You can't just suggest that its a big meet a lot of people run fast at therefore everyone there is peaking perfectly.

Tuohy seemed to be in pretty great shape when she won the 2022 NCAA XC championship. Hard to believe she lost so much fitness in just 2 weeks.

Even if we agree February/March 2023 was Tuohy's peak, her 8:35 3k was in a race with pros. That's a very different context than Valby front-running collegiate records in NCAA championship races. It's not fair to assume winter 2023 Tuohy was equal to spring 2024 Valby at 5k when Tuohy never ran a 5k at the level Valby reached at that distance.

bumblebee wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

Tuohy seemed to be in pretty great shape when she won the 2022 NCAA XC championship. Hard to believe she lost so much fitness in just 2 weeks.

Even if we agree February/March 2023 was Tuohy's peak, her 8:35 3k was in a race with pros. That's a very different context than Valby front-running collegiate records in NCAA championship races. It's not fair to assume winter 2023 Tuohy was equal to spring 2024 Valby at 5k when Tuohy never ran a 5k at the level Valby reached at that distance.

Im not arguing that Tuohy was ever better at 5k than Valby in college. I dont particularly care, they were both a lot of fun to watch compete. If she was ever in 14:52 shape she never proved it so its meaningless to argue about. Valby ran faster.

I'm just saying using how they performed in a single meet in different years and how that compared to how annie rodenfels did that year to "prove" anything is peak letsrun comedy

rbtrackfan wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

They are meaningful data points. Other than two athletes racing each other, it's hard to find a closer apples-to-apples comparison than looking at how two athletes did one year apart in the same event at the same indoor track meet against the same competitor at the same time of year 2 weeks after winning the same championship race. And those weren't the only data points I used.

You seem to ignore that when running that 15:15 she barely beat runners who she had beat by about 20 seconds 2 weeks earlier at XC Nationals, 1 of whom tried to match the move at 3500m but could not. It seems clear she was not at her best running the 15:15 (and lost to Rodenfels by 7 seconds). It also seems clear that the day she ran the 8:35 was probably her peak. What she could have run for 5,000 that day we will not know. But using the 15:15 result seems misleading and I would say less than meaningful. I would have liked to see Valby and Tuohy race the 5000 with both having their best day.