Seriously, who is left who can pace these women through the halfway mark? Nobody. This is going to be a very fast championship style race and I don’t think we will see anybody with the leaders from early on who isn’t in it to win it. Like Jakob in the 5000, if Hassan has trained well and is at her best, she’s not going to lose. Under these conditions, unlike Chicago, Chepngetich or Assefa are not going to be able to go fast enough to drop her and then, as in Paris, Hassan is not going to be outrun in the last 1-2 K. This race will be a fast version of Paris, not like Chicago 2024. Hassan wins in 2:15 high. Maybe 2:14 if the women work on it together.
I agree that Assefa or Ruth may not challenge Hassan for the win. But on the form from here last year, Jepkosgei or Megertu could give her all she can handle.
It doesn't make huge sense for British elites to race London at the moment, particularly not the slightly less competitive ones. In the women's only race, they are often isolated early on, with a small group at best and perhaps 2 pacers. Compare that to another big city but non major marathon, where they can TT with a bunch of sub elite men. Calli Thackeray seems to race best in a TT style race (especially when paced by her husband), and Sam and Clara may prefer to shoot for a fast time this year elsewhere. Heck.. even the English marathon championships is on the same day elsewhere.