Question of the day: If Graham Blanks and Jakob Ingebrigtsen had raced at European or NCAA xc, who would have won?

Yeah what a terrible take. Thats like saying Jakob could also beat Kiplimo because he can outkick him in a slow track 5000m as well.

If Jakob were to run a half marathon tomorrow, 99 times out of 100 he is running faster compared to a few months ago. His first HM attempt was after months of purely training for the 1500 after an injury forced him to shorten his base training. Him winning the 5000 is truly a testament to how insane his engine is.

Post-Copenhagen HM, he has taken time off to recover after his long Olympic and Diamond league season, and he has resumed training. He is in the middle of his base training, with includes much higher volume compared to 2-3 months ago.

Ask Colin Sahlman to run a 10k after his NCAA 1500 final in May, he’s 100% running slower than what he just ran at NCAA XC 2 weeks ago.

Its a special kind of logic to look past his xc races, but rather look at a HM race done 1.5 days after a 1500m. Where he struggled, yet somehow ran faster than Blanks 10,000 PR.

Your rotting your brain with your lack of calories and all the incel right wing podcast you guzzle on a daily basis. Go outside and take a walk.

Jakob is a speed track guy. Great at the 1500/3000, great at championship 5,000m races. Not sure about an all out time trial 5,000m race yet. At 10,000m he's probably dropping off. We clearly saw he has a big drop-off by half marathon and can't compete with the best in the world at 21km. Graham is roughly a 10th best in the world type of guy in 5,000 meters and probably pretty close to that in the 10,000m. So it would probably be very close, I'd give the edge to Jakob but it wouldn't be by more than 5 seconds or so, Graham isn't going to get absolutely dropped.

Graham Blanks only beat Dylan Schubert by two seconds at NCAAs. Does anyone here really think that Jakob isn’t putting much more than two seconds on Dylan Schubert over a 10k XC race?

I commented 'seriously?' and it got removed. So, I'll say again --- seriously?

And then Blanks beat Schubert by 18 seconds in a 5K two weeks later.

Your general conclusion that Jakob would win is correct, but Schubert had the race of his life so don't downgrade Blanks for that. Meanwhile in Euros, Ndikumwenayo had an off race for example. Crippa ran really well, but I'd have no problem picking Blanks to beat him on his best day.

Jakob's at a different level, though. Blanks vs. the best version of Ndikumwenayo (seen in his PBs or beating Crippa by 8s in an Italy XC race) is another debate. For how this one played out, I'd like Blanks battling (and beating) Crippa.

I don't know if I'd say he struggled...he went out in 27:27 for the first 10k, lol. He's the best mid-distance runner in the world, and that was at the end of a very long track season. If he prepared specifically for that half, he'd be able to go out in 27:27 and keep going.

This I find kinda a weird characterization. Jakob himself would admit he struggled! Which is fine, we don't have to pretend like it wasn't a humbling experience, or that 27:27 for a 10K and jogging was kinda on the floor of what would happen.

That being said I agree with specific preparation and timing, he would do much better and the performance is completely explainable. I'd think he can run under 59 for sure, and then it's kinda guesswork if his team's saying he's ideally suited for the HM is correct or if he's really a perfect fit for the 3K with major strength and good speed that makes him deadly in tactical 5Ks and one of the best ever paced 1500m runners.

Jakob won a 5k time trial 3.5 years ago in impressive fashion and is a much better runner now. What is there to be unsure about?

If a poor showing in his debut half marathon run 36 hours after the DL Final at the end of a long season of 1500m racing is enough to convince you that Jakob has no future over the distance, you are not a serious person. The fact he was able to win in 3:30 on Friday night, then come back on Sunday morning with a negative split 27:27 before blowing up should tell you there is a lot more in the tank with proper preparation.

Ingebrigtsen can probably beat Aregawi by 5 seconds in a 1500m, but only by 2 seconds per 1500m in the 3000m which means Aregawi is gaining on Ingebrigtsen as the distance is increased.That means there’s going to be a crossover at some point and probably at about 5000m.

It was the same thing with Centrowitz Sr. and Salazar. Centrowitz was about 5 seconds faster in the 1500m, they were even in the 5000m, and Salazar would have buried him in the 10000m.

What team is Ingebrigtsen part of? Doesn’t he always speak for himself?

This is a serious misunderstanding of the event. It isn't really possible to be great at championship 5000m races without also being capable of a fast time in a time trial. To dominate the way Jakob has in the last 3 global finals (or the way Mo did throughout the 2010s) requires more than tactical savvy and a sub-3:30 PB. While 1500m speed is a great asset, it is not the primary indicator of championship 5k success. No doubt it helps, but only if one has the strength to use it. Most elite 1500m runners will be chewed up and spit out in these 13:10 races where the final kilometer is low 2:20s because they lack the 5k ability necessary to reach that point of the race intact.

It's not an accident that the Africans "handed" Mo the title year after year and have continued to do the same for Jakob. When someone is too fast to out-kick and too strong to drop, there is no effective strategy to beat them.

Back on topic: Jakob over Graham all day. It's not really a fair comparison. Could be worth revisiting in a few years depending on how Blanks progresses, but for now they are not on the same level.

Jakob same reason he wins all 5K championship races, too strong to drop, too fast on the close to beat (last 600m). Either needs to be really slow and out kick him in the last 200m or break him which requires like a 26:50 track 10k effort or faster race.

Blakes isn't quite there and he isn't fast enough to out kick him in a slow race (thinking like a Cole Hocker kind of kicker). He might get there before 2028. Blakes and Parker Wolfe are the best 5k/10k American male talent's since Grant Fisher, so I do see an very bright future for him. (excluding the amazing trio of Hocker / Yared / Hobbs in the 1500m who might end up being the best 5K runners in 2028 if they focus on that distance)

Rojo,

I really respect you and the insight that you provide on the podcast. That being said, and I mean no disrespect when I say this, this is such a moronic question that I got in my car and drove to the optometrist for a vision test to make sure I was reading it correctly. Yes, Graham is in phenomenal shape, but Jakob just made sub 27 guys look like chopped liver. This is like asking if Bob Liking would beat Blanks. Great runner, not on par.

I see your point, but was Farah ever known for his XC prowess? Certainly not in the same way prime Bekele was - that man was truly peerless over the grass and mud.

I think a better discussion would be the likes of today's best XC crop - Kiplimo, Cheptegei et. al against Tergat and Geb. Now that would be interesting...

Jakob is running his double thresholds in forms that don't really prepare him for half marathon even though he is often going at 1 hr pace for 50+ minutes total in a day, divided into two workouts. Those are typically 3x10 minute efforts or 5x6 minute efforts in the morning and something shorter like 8x3 minutes in the afternoon. So, he's apparently never running long tempos of the kind suited to the half marathon and his long runs don't tend to be very long or very fast. He does a lot of easy running between 5:30 and 6:00. 5-8M tempos would set him up for the half a lot better. Comparing Blanks to Schubert at 5000m isn't very enlightening about 10k xc. 10k xc showed Schubert to be quite close. However, at the same time, 10k on the track might not be as close because Blanks was just going for the win in xc, not a time, whereas he was going after a time on the track at 5000m. Maybe the gap would have been bigger if time was an object in xc.

Actually with Mo, who could close a 14+ race in 49, as he did once, and could run a 3:28.8 1500m, the only way to possibly beat him was to use team tactics to either pace fast all the way to 4600m, sacrificing the least credentialed Kenyan or Ethiopian as a pacer, and see if he could hang in a low 12:40s race (probably), or to have someone kick early at 800m and see if he would follow and burn himself out. In his era, no one was willing to do that.

Jakob just beat sub 27 runners over 8k, not 10k.