European XC Champs Sunday

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

I don’t think I’m knowledgeable enough to try to be neutral here… -My agenda is first and foremost (in addition to give Ndikumwenayo some well deserved credit) to give Jakob some slack..! We can’t expect him to go on winning (now with better Euro competition) if he is a significantly worse athlete the longer the distance. But I think he is much better prepared now than in Copenhagen, and given a reduced course (7.8 km) I think Jakob will be tough to beat. But he has never shown himself as a good 10k runner, and a peak Ndikumwenayo might toy with him…. (But not if Jakob for the first time has adjusted his training to a better distance one -exciting to see..! Could also be that he had a very off day in Denmark -he hasn’t said anything about that, but he alluded to fatigue after only 2k, so maybe it was…?). I must also add that Ndikumwenayo also has shown some vulnerabilities -lost to Lobalu and Schrub in Euros 10000m 2024. But he has made at least three very strong xc’s the last few years -I don’t know if Jakob can match 9.th placings in WC…

The Norwegian Myhre? Maybe -he was outkicked in the Nationals xc for silver, but I hope he is stronger now (healed longer after injuries). But I really really miss Nordås -he is qualified, but won’t run because of the never ending Norwegian conflict. -I think he would have had a huge potential in that course, but now we never will know…

I was a little un precise here: 1. I meant that Ndikumwenayo could have been a tough task for Jakob if the course had been the usual 10k, and even worse if hilly. Of course no European toys with Jakob in a flat 7.8k course.

2. I think Myhre had an injury, but the main problem is recovering from a tough covid.

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

triplethreshold wrote:

I think you are overthinking this one. Jakob dominated 2 years ago on a brutally hilly course. The fact that this course is flat and not even an 8k gives him a huge leg up. This race will likely go exactly like they always do. Jakob will sit on the leaders and then power away in the last k.

I think you and a lot of others (even maybe Jakob himself, who normally is very thoughtful) are underthinking things when it comes to the distance events. Yes, frankly I fear Jakob is totally clueless here… (Based on his sayings and doings, although he might have gotten a reality check after Copenhagen).

Jakob shouldn’t run Euros xc (except the current one, which is crippled down to 7.8k, and therefore ruined, but manageable for him) -a stellar athlete like him shouldn’t compete in events he sucks in! (The 2022 hilly win was against not so good athletes). Yes, he probably also better skip the 5000m before he faces competitors in peak shape.

For now I think Jakob is the best 1500/3000m runner in the world, with a huge margin; 2+ sec in the 1500m, and more than the double in the 3000m. But I suspect he is a bad 5000m runner, a very bad 10000m runner and a hobby jogger in the HM.

My vision for Jakob: I hope he keeps on the good work in the 1500/ mile/2000/3000m/2 mile, and gives the WRs a shot. But that he also stops racing the 5000m (and of course everything above) until he is better trained. In my view Jakob hasn’t run a single decent 5000m in his life, and will eventually run out of luck (meaning coincidence and circumstances that have nothing to do with good 5k shape). In my view Jakob has been extremely unlucky in the 1500m, and extremely lucky in the 5000…

I hope Jakob after excelling in the 1500m (meaning taking out all of his potential) can transit to the 5000m and maybe even the 10k/HM in a good way by changing his training and preparations drastically. -Who knows what he can do then..?! But for now he should avoid events he really sucks in…

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

triplethreshold wrote:

I think you are overthinking this one. Jakob dominated 2 years ago on a brutally hilly course. The fact that this course is flat and not even an 8k gives him a huge leg up. This race will likely go exactly like they always do. Jakob will sit on the leaders and then power away in the last k.

I think you and a lot of others (even maybe Jakob himself, who normally is very thoughtful) are underthinking things when it comes to the distance events. Yes, frankly I fear Jakob is totally clueless here… (Based on his sayings and doings, although he might have gotten a reality check after Copenhagen).

Jakob shouldn’t run Euros xc (except the current one, which is crippled down to 7.8k, and therefore ruined, but manageable for him) -a stellar athlete like him shouldn’t compete in events he sucks in! (The 2022 hilly win was against not so good athletes). Yes, he probably also better skip the 5000m before he faces competitors in peak shape.

For now I think Jakob is the best 1500/3000m runner in the world, with a huge margin; 2+ sec in the 1500m, and more than the double in the 3000m. But I suspect he is a bad 5000m runner, a very bad 10000m runner and a hobby jogger in the HM.

My vision for Jakob: I hope he keeps on the good work in the 1500/ mile/2000/3000m/2 mile, and gives the WRs a shot. But that he also stops racing the 5000m (and of course everything above) until he is better trained. In my view Jakob hasn’t run a single decent 5000m in his life, and will eventually run out of luck (meaning coincidence and circumstances that have nothing to do with good 5k shape). In my view Jakob has been extremely unlucky in the 1500m, and extremely lucky in the 5000…

I hope Jakob after excelling in the 1500m (meaning taking out all of his potential) can transit to the 5000m and maybe even the 10k/HM in a good way by changing his training and preparations drastically. -Who knows what he can do then..?! But for now he should avoid events he really sucks in…

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

triplethreshold wrote:

I think you are overthinking this one. Jakob dominated 2 years ago on a brutally hilly course. The fact that this course is flat and not even an 8k gives him a huge leg up. This race will likely go exactly like they always do. Jakob will sit on the leaders and then power away in the last k.

I think you and a lot of others (even maybe Jakob himself, who normally is very thoughtful) are underthinking things when it comes to the distance events. Yes, frankly I fear Jakob is totally clueless here… (Based on his sayings and doings, although he might have gotten a reality check after Copenhagen).

Jakob shouldn’t run Euros xc (except the current one, which is crippled down to 7.8k, and therefore ruined, but manageable for him) -a stellar athlete like him shouldn’t compete in events he sucks in! (The 2022 hilly win was against not so good athletes). Yes, he probably also better skip the 5000m before he faces competitors in peak shape.

For now I think Jakob is the best 1500/3000m runner in the world, with a huge margin; 2+ sec in the 1500m, and more than the double in the 3000m. But I suspect he is a bad 5000m runner, a very bad 10000m runner and a hobby jogger in the HM.

My vision for Jakob: I hope he keeps on the good work in the 1500/ mile/2000/3000m/2 mile, and gives the WRs a shot. But that he also stops racing the 5000m (and of course everything above) until he is better trained. In my view Jakob hasn’t run a single decent 5000m in his life, and will eventually run out of luck (meaning coincidence and circumstances that have nothing to do with good 5k shape). In my view Jakob has been extremely unlucky in the 1500m, and extremely lucky in the 5000…

I hope Jakob after excelling in the 1500m (meaning taking out all of his potential) can transit to the 5000m and maybe even the 10k/HM in a good way by changing his training and preparations drastically. -Who knows what he can do then..?! But for now he should avoid events he really sucks in…

objectiveobserver wrote:

CuriousDude?! In your former post you were out of balance; now you are OUT OF YOUR MIND!

You think Jakob should stop running the 5000m because he has been lucky to win (EASILY) all the important 5000meters the last 4 seasons (apart from Budapest 2023 where he was ill; but still edged out Katir)?

I suppose you don´t think he can break the 5000m WR opposite to what many serious posters (including myself) assume he can. If he can run 58.34 for 7.5 laps why shouldn´t he be able to run 60.34 for 12.5 laps.

I agree that the top runners in the world seem to have difficulty to peak for the international 5000m finals BUT I don´t think it matters. They need to be MUCH better in the finals to even come close to Jakob.

See the Paris final

Video:www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzLl4hT9FAU&t=...

As far as I can see Jakob beat 12:36 runner Gebrhiwet with about 2.5 seconds over the last lap. In what world would Gebrhiwet come close?

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Jakob´s training: As stated many times his training is more suitable for long distance than for middle distance running.

Copenhagen Half: He obviously wasn´t recovered neither mentally nor physically. He only had about 1.5 day from the DL final to the start in CPH with one travel day in between. As you said yourself: He felt tired already after some few kilometers at a pace which would be easy for him if well rested.

I will save this thread and come back when he breaks the WR in the 5000m. I think he could have done that in 2023 if he had run it in Brüssel instead of the 2000m or in 2024 if he ran it in Silesia instead of the 3000m.

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

Steffe!! wrote:

What the hell are you babbling about? Jakob is the reigning Olympic 5000 m champion.

Yes, and double WC gold in the same event, and hasn’t lost a 5000m since 2019, (still a teenager then..!).

Most Olympic champions are very good in their main event, (and even sometimes in others), but there are a lot of examples of “not very good athletes” that have won the Olympics. -One guy didn’t even break the 1.44 in his gold event ever, despite the WR being 1.41 less than a year after. And one guy did back to back golds with no better than 3.31.95 as a pb through this long time span (of course being excellent in the 800/1000m) -a borderline mediocre in his gold event -time wise (the only thing that really matters in my view, and his pb was nearly 6 sec worse than 15 years later; very few technically improvements in that span) - but of course worth mentioning with an unleashed potential he was really lucky to fulfil as a nearly thirty years old…

If Paris Olympics had had the same schedule as Tokyo Olympics Jakob wouldn’t have run the 5000m and a 13.02 man would have won. So would that guy’s gold been a proof of him being the world’s best then?

Here’s a list over some of the disabled athletes who might have beaten Jakob in that race (especially a boxed in Jakob):

Grant Fisher (leggy from a fast 10000m in hot weather), Cheptegei, Kipimo and Aregawi (DNS because of the mentioned 10000m), Kejelcha (not chosen by the Ethiopians), Nordås (crushed by to tight schedule between 1500/5000m), Gebrhiwet (sick), ++