I just don't see a scenario where Vista loses. If Bethlehem and TH are both on their game, the battle for second will be fun to watch. TH's #5 will make or break them imo. Whereas bethlehems pack will need to stay composed being middle of the race instead of in the front like they're used to.
Meylan’s speed ratings attempt to compensate for elevation differences. If anything, SR have tended to under value teams from elevation.
To your second point, absolutely living and training at altitude has benefits for XC. BYU and NAU have benefited from their locations in their respective NCAA championship runs. However, the recent surge of great high school teams from mountain states is just that, Recent. Especially on the girls side. So there is more than just training at elevation going on. I believe Colorado only had 2 podium finishes in the first 15 years of NXN, but 6 in the last 3 years (including RL21). But the elevation in Colorado hasn’t changed. Some of this may just be cyclical. California took 5 of 9 podium spots at NXN between 2014 and 2016, and NY of course had a long stretch of dominance and fared just fine against teams from mountain states. If it were just a matter of training at altitude, we would have seen this every year, and we haven’t.
Yes, agree on both highlighted points above.
Which underscores the thought that maybe Fay-Man & Saratoga Springs were so dominant at the top of the podium for so long because there were no great mountain states girls teams at the time to break up their hegemony at NTN/NXN.
Like Kenya in the 1980s and Ethiopia in the 1990s, finally appears at least a few select high schools in UT & CO now realize the latent talent they've always had, and -- with really smart and dedicated coaches who are happy staying where they are and not looking to move on to the college coaching ranks -- are developing that talent to the fullest, including feeder systems from the jr high ranks that will keep the pipelines filled for year to come.
However, no need to send Niwot or Air Academy or Mountain Vista back in a time machine to see how they'd do against those Aris & Kranick teams . . . because we have exactly that kind of match up this Saturday when Mountain View/CO faces off against Trabuco Hills & Buchanan, arguably the two greatest CA teams ever in light of their record-breaking performances this past weekend at Woodward Park.
Add Bethlehem/NY to boot, although don't know if that team would be considered on par with the Fay-Mans & Kinetics of the past.
Same in the boys race, where a-t great Herriman/UT takes on a-t great CBA/NJ.
Now, when are we going to see a great hs team, boys or girls, from Flagstaff?
Kyle Brazeil begins his MileSplit preview by informing us, "It should be a dryer outing at Glendoveer than normal, with perfect conditions on race day." Whatever you say Kyle!
1 Jane Hedengren - Provo UT - BYU Commit 2 Sadie Engelhardt - Ventura CA - NC State Commit 3 Marissa Ferebee - Pelle IA - Junior
'1st Team All American' 4 Rylee Blade - Corona CA - Florida State Commit 5 Elizabeth Leachman - Boerne TX - Junior 6 Addison Ritzenhein - Niwot CO - Junior 7 Victoria Garces - Midland MI - Duke Commit
'2nd Team All American' 8 Mia Sirois - Barrington IL - Sophomore 9 Ruby Ihmels - Bismarck ND - Sophomore 10 Chloe Huyler - Lake Oswego OR - Notre Dame Commit 11 Sophia Rodriguez - Mercer Island WA - Sophomore 12 Lilly Beshears - Rogers AR - Junior 13 Helen Sachs - Holland MI - Notre Dame Commit 14 Holly Barker - Mission Viejo CA - Colorado Commit
'3rd Team All American' 15 Delaney Reuter - Eaton CO - Sophomore 16 Hanne Thomsen - Santa Rosa CA - Stanford Commit 17 Ryin Miller - Topeka KS - Junior 18 Millie Bayles - Mission Viejo CA - Junior 19 Katelyn Rupe - Salina KS - UNC Commit 20 Mallory Weller - Fort Wayne IN - Junior 21 Elektra Higgins - Gig Harbor WA - Uncommitted
Podium Teams: 1st Mountain Vista High School - Highlands Ranch CO 2nd Trabuco Hills High School - Mission Viejo CA 3rd Buchanan High School - Clovis CA
i think the success comes from youth teams. there is a strong USATF/AAU youth team presence in Colorado. if you track the kids from colorado, they have podium finishes in national meets with these exact girls on the teams. many of these girls from colorado are not new to running. they are good because they have a strong foundation. they beat or were right with california teams when they were younger.
Meylan’s speed ratings attempt to compensate for elevation differences. If anything, SR have tended to under value teams from elevation.
To your second point, absolutely living and training at altitude has benefits for XC. BYU and NAU have benefited from their locations in their respective NCAA championship runs. However, the recent surge of great high school teams from mountain states is just that, Recent. Especially on the girls side. So there is more than just training at elevation going on. I believe Colorado only had 2 podium finishes in the first 15 years of NXN, but 6 in the last 3 years (including RL21). But the elevation in Colorado hasn’t changed. Some of this may just be cyclical. California took 5 of 9 podium spots at NXN between 2014 and 2016, and NY of course had a long stretch of dominance and fared just fine against teams from mountain states. If it were just a matter of training at altitude, we would have seen this every year, and we haven’t.
Yes, agree on both highlighted points above.
Which underscores the thought that maybe Fay-Man & Saratoga Springs were so dominant at the top of the podium for so long because there were no great mountain states girls teams at the time to break up their hegemony at NTN/NXN.
Like Kenya in the 1980s and Ethiopia in the 1990s, finally appears at least a few select high schools in UT & CO now realize the latent talent they've always had, and -- with really smart and dedicated coaches who are happy staying where they are and not looking to move on to the college coaching ranks -- are developing that talent to the fullest, including feeder systems from the jr high ranks that will keep the pipelines filled for year to come.
However, no need to send Niwot or Air Academy or Mountain Vista back in a time machine to see how they'd do against those Aris & Kranick teams . . . because we have exactly that kind of match up this Saturday when Mountain View/CO faces off against Trabuco Hills & Buchanan, arguably the two greatest CA teams ever in light of their record-breaking performances this past weekend at Woodward Park.
Add Bethlehem/NY to boot, although don't know if that team would be considered on par with the Fay-Mans & Kinetics of the past.
Same in the boys race, where a-t great Herriman/UT takes on a-t great CBA/NJ.
Now, when are we going to see a great hs team, boys or girls, from Flagstaff?
i think the success comes from youth teams. there is a strong USATF/AAU youth team presence in Colorado. if you track the kids from colorado, they have podium finishes in national meets with these exact girls on the teams. many of these girls from colorado are not new to running. they are good because they have a strong foundation. they beat or were right with california teams when they were younger.
1 Jane Hedengren - Provo UT - BYU Commit 2 Sadie Engelhardt - Ventura CA - NC State Commit 3 Marissa Ferebee - Pelle IA - Junior
'1st Team All American' 4 Rylee Blade - Corona CA - Florida State Commit 5 Elizabeth Leachman - Boerne TX - Junior 6 Addison Ritzenhein - Niwot CO - Junior 7 Victoria Garces - Midland MI - Duke Commit
'2nd Team All American' 8 Mia Sirois - Barrington IL - Sophomore 9 Ruby Ihmels - Bismarck ND - Sophomore 10 Chloe Huyler - Lake Oswego OR - Notre Dame Commit 11 Sophia Rodriguez - Mercer Island WA - Sophomore 12 Lilly Beshears - Rogers AR - Junior 13 Helen Sachs - Holland MI - Notre Dame Commit 14 Holly Barker - Mission Viejo CA - Colorado Commit
'3rd Team All American' 15 Delaney Reuter - Eaton CO - Sophomore 16 Hanne Thomsen - Santa Rosa CA - Stanford Commit 17 Ryin Miller - Topeka KS - Junior 18 Millie Bayles - Mission Viejo CA - Junior 19 Katelyn Rupe - Salina KS - UNC Commit 20 Mallory Weller - Fort Wayne IN - Junior 21 Elektra Higgins - Gig Harbor WA - Uncommitted
Podium Teams: 1st Mountain Vista High School - Highlands Ranch CO 2nd Trabuco Hills High School - Mission Viejo CA 3rd Buchanan High School - Clovis CA
Good list but I think Sadie and Rylee will finish lower and Addy will finish higher. Nothing against them I just think the conditions always favor kids from other regions. I also think Bethlehem will be on the podium.
Good list but I think Sadie and Rylee will finish lower and Addy will finish higher. Nothing against them I just think the conditions always favor kids from other regions. I also think Bethlehem will be on the podium.
Last year conditions were just godawful for a California/TX runner. This year projects as modest. The warm weather favorites are also all returnees, so they already have their deer in the headlights experience in Oregon.
About 10 ladies have a chance at this, especially if Hedengren does not run away at the front, and Leachman does not suddenly find her 2023 form. A couple of the dramatically improved midwestern girls remain unbeaten, so are likely to compete hard.
Good list but I think Sadie and Rylee will finish lower and Addy will finish higher. Nothing against them I just think the conditions always favor kids from other regions. I also think Bethlehem will be on the podium.
Last year conditions were just godawful for a California/TX runner. This year projects as modest. The warm weather favorites are also all returnees, so they already have their deer in the headlights experience in Oregon.
About 10 ladies have a chance at this, especially if Hedengren does not run away at the front, and Leachman does not suddenly find her 2023 form. A couple of the dramatically improved midwestern girls remain unbeaten, so are likely to compete hard.
I don't know the last time I saw "ideal" conditions in Portland, if ever. It's often a rude awakening for runners that placed on soccer fields or flat, dry courses in regionals. I love it. Real cross country! If you charge off too fast, like last year, the muck sucks all the strength from your legs. I've watched it there at Glendoveer, froze my butt, slipped and fell down a couple times, trying to follow the race. Good luck to all.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Such a shame that it’s dry for two weeks then rains the morning of the race. It just turns the race on its head, disrupting the strides of the strong track runners. From a track perspective Hendengren, Engelhardt, Blade, Ritz, Huyler and Rodriguez have the strongest credentials and then there is a substantial drop off. This would be your core group of top finishers if it stayed dry.
Such a shame that it’s dry for two weeks then rains the morning of the race. It just turns the race on its head, disrupting the strides of the strong track runners. From a track perspective Hendengren, Engelhardt, Blade, Ritz, Huyler and Rodriguez have the strongest credentials and then there is a substantial drop off. This would be your core group of top finishers if it stayed dry.
1 Jane Hedengren - Provo UT - BYU Commit 2 Sadie Engelhardt - Ventura CA - NC State Commit 3 Marissa Ferebee - Pelle IA - Junior
'1st Team All American' 4 Rylee Blade - Corona CA - Florida State Commit 5 Elizabeth Leachman - Boerne TX - Junior 6 Addison Ritzenhein - Niwot CO - Junior 7 Victoria Garces - Midland MI - Duke Commit
'2nd Team All American' 8 Mia Sirois - Barrington IL - Sophomore 9 Ruby Ihmels - Bismarck ND - Sophomore 10 Chloe Huyler - Lake Oswego OR - Notre Dame Commit 11 Sophia Rodriguez - Mercer Island WA - Sophomore 12 Lilly Beshears - Rogers AR - Junior 13 Helen Sachs - Holland MI - Notre Dame Commit 14 Holly Barker - Mission Viejo CA - Colorado Commit
'3rd Team All American' 15 Delaney Reuter - Eaton CO - Sophomore 16 Hanne Thomsen - Santa Rosa CA - Stanford Commit 17 Ryin Miller - Topeka KS - Junior 18 Millie Bayles - Mission Viejo CA - Junior 19 Katelyn Rupe - Salina KS - UNC Commit 20 Mallory Weller - Fort Wayne IN - Junior 21 Elektra Higgins - Gig Harbor WA - Uncommitted
Podium Teams: 1st Mountain Vista High School - Highlands Ranch CO 2nd Trabuco Hills High School - Mission Viejo CA 3rd Buchanan High School - Clovis CA
Really well done, but feel like Tully Ratings are driving the rankings. Here is what I see -
This is valid, though I am sure Mangum will have her where she needs to be, especially with having the 2 weeks between NXR and NXN to. He knows what he is doing.