NXN 2024 at-large bids

Same with heartland. Several of the teams in the region were trading off beating one another.

I would argue that they have three really good teams that are all top 30 in the nation, Haddonfield Memorial, Ridgefield, and CBA. I think they have a decent shot for an at-large bid.

Yea this criteria seems to make it clear that instead of traveling to Woodbridge to build a resume you should instead go to some meet in New York (i.e. Manhattan, Burnt Hills, McQuaid) or Griak to beat the qualifying teams from New York and Heartland - with a shot at the Midwest and Northeast teams as well - instead of trying to do the much more difficult task of beating the California, Northwest, South, and Southwest teams at Woodbridge where you have to be ready for 4:40 miles in mid-September.

California teams traveled the most out of all the regions. For example: Hart CA finished 4th at Manhattan Invitational, the biggest invitational in the east. They were only a few points (35 points) behind Haddonfield Memorial which people are saying is a contender is an at-large sport in the Northeast. Hart is a California team that runs road races so I was surprised to see them do so well on a very difficult course. Hart finished 18th at Woodbridge with 504 points. Almost 250 points away from CDA 5th whom finished with 258 points, 320 points away from Crater whom finished with 187 points.

They’d place about tenth in Colorado. The top 3 Colorado teams would have won any of the regionals contested thus far. Top 5-6 would have won NW and MW.

2023
SW - 1, 2, 5, 9
NW - 11, 12, 14
MW, 7, 15
CA - 8, 10, 17
S - 3, 13
NE - 6, 19
SE - 4, 21
HL - 16, 18
NY - 20, 22

at larges - 2 SW, 1 NW, 1 CA

2022
SW - 3, 5, 17
NW - 2, 4
MW - 8, 11, 13
CA - 1, 6, 7, 16
S - 19, 20
NE - 18, 21
SE - 9, 14
HL - 12, 15
NY - 10, 22

at larges - 2 SW, 2 CA

Olathe Twilight was so early that I'm not sure that would be weighted, especially since Spring Hill finished all the way back in 5th.

Rockhurst (#2 MW) beat Spring Hill very solidly in early Oct. as well.

Too bad Rockhurst and Bentonville never went head to head. That would have been a nice matchup to see. Having Chile Pepper, Gans Creek, and Rim Rock all on the same weekend definitely weakened all of those respective fields where you normally see some crossover across regions.

Absolutely right that teams, if trying to maximize their chances at NXN At-Large selection, probably shouldn't spend their resources to go to an early September meet like Woodbridge. That's fine if you're trying to build up your program by giving them that experience, but if the goal is to put yourself in the best position to get to NXN Nationals then a later meet that would carry more weight would be more important to spend your resources on.

The problem with that line of thinking of trying to beat an assumed weaker regional champion is that the committee will consider the strength of the regional champion that is beaten. So if the NY or HL champion is deemed to be "mediocre" compared to the other regional champions, that win won't mean much for the potential At-Large team.

If a team is trying to maximize their potential for At-Large selection, they would be best served to go to a big meet within the timeframe (last week of September onwards) that will feature multiple potential regional champions on courses that are well understood. So, for example, Bob Firman or Great American or Clovis.

If Jesuit LA takes third in the South region, they will probably get an at-large if Huntsville takes second in the Southeast, or if Ridgefield takes second in the Northeast. Jesuit beat both teams in one race

Ridgefield was without their #2 runner when they raced Jesuit though

Will they really wait until 5 days before NXN to announce the qualifiers?

2021 was interesting - with no at large bids, RunningLane was sort of a free for all. Gives a glimpse as to what might be if the at large cap of 2 per region were lifted.

Just looking at the top 22 spots:

CA - 1, 7, 13

SW - 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 17

NW - 3, 20, 22

NE - 4

S - 5, 16, 21

MW - 14*, 19

SE - 18

HL - 0

NY - 0

* - Sandberg HS was perhaps the best team in the country to not attend RunningLane.

The Coronado transfer will help, but there’s still no way they will make NXN without the injured junior (he was their #2 at Desert Twilight). American Fork will get top 3. 4th place will be Hamilton, Valor Christian, Rio Rancho, or Riverton who made it last year

Before the season started, I thought Plainfield South would redeem themselves after missing NXN by 1 point last year. Instead, they took 7th.

Plainfield North lost 2 seniors, and this year their 5th man was pretty far back.

Rock Bridge returned their 2-6 from last year when they placed 4th, and this year they weren’t even in the championship race

Midwest girls are even worse than the boys.

Rock Bridge was only 4th place at state.

But SW and NW would get all the at larges over them. South could probably get 1 over them anyway.