I think Valby will have the faster PRs, but Tuohy will probably have the longer career. Valby seems more fragile (I realize Tuohy has also had injuries, but Valby's seem more concerning and relies too much on cross training to me). I wouldn't be shocked if Valby crushes a couple fast races this year or next but gets back into an injury cycle and doesn't come out. Tuohy has been relevant for a while already and I think is a more probable long term relatively high performer, but might not ever be a 14:30/30:15 runner like I think Valby could do in the next year or two.
Hard to say both are scary good. Tuohy ran a 15:30 5k in an indoor track when she was only 15 and ran a 4:23 mile at 18 or 19. Women are more prone to injury as their bodies continue to develop, so she has a fantastic future should she have extended periods of good health. Parker is just a fearless killer. She may be unbeatable in a few years.
Neither is going anywhere in the 5k or 10k probably. Maybe PV can be a better 10K and up runner. KT has got to be more of an JS/ESP/SH runner. If she is going to make any noise, it probably has to be in the 1500/3000/maybe Steeple though I doubt that is her thing.
Really, they're both drawing dead against E. Africans. They got to do the Chari Hawkins bit if they want to get white people runner famous.
This opinion is so depressing but also probably right.
As to who will fare best, it depends on how you define career. If they end up being mostly runfluencers (stole this term from an earlier post), then I would say Valby for sure just because she has the personality for that. Tuohy majored in business so I bet she develops opportunities for herself outside of running. I think we are comparing apples to oranges here.
As to who will run faster and have the best race results as a pro, it would be great to see them both running healthy for long enough to be in top form again. Right now I would say the edge goes to Valby just because of her situation in Boston now. She has a coach that has proven to get results, and training partners that will push her and that are savvy racers that she will learn from. Tuohy's situation seems less promising. Staying with Henes was risky. She has not gotten results as a pro coach. Tuohy has made good desicions for herself thus far, so it is possible that there is more good stuff there than meets the eye. Maybe it really is just nagging injury that has been stubborn about healing that has plagued her. It just seems like her reluctance to move on from Raleigh and Henes and NC State has caused a stagnation in her progress. Valby seems to have all of the momentum, and I expect that if she stays healthy she is going to have great results moving forward. I hope Tuohy ends up with that as well.
Are you admitting that even if the American women were using the same dope as the Africans that they cannot come close to 3:49, 14:00 and 28:58? I think this is true although I do believe that a doped Athing Mu can run 1:53 and 3:55, which is not nothing.
I am saying that I don't think athletes like Valby and Tuohy are doping and as such, are not even close to relevant on the international scene. Doping works, so they would be faster if they did dope, but I am glad they don't. "Being relevant" internationally is not more important than being ethical.
The problem is, their PRs are the splits of Kenyan and Ethiopian women right now (who may or may not be doping).
I am not a doping expert and don't want this thread to turn into that, so I am going to just say that if you were an international fan of women's running, you probably aren't too concerned about runners with Tuohy's and Valby's PRs.
Do we know the names of the Japanese runners who have a 5km PR of 14:51? Are we keeping an eye on Ririka Hironaka? No, of course not.
I think Valby and Tuohy will probably have very good careers and run really fast. It just won't seem fast because there will be a bunch of women running 14:10 and 29:30 in the next decade.
p.s. Mu is/was 100% relevant and amazing (and I think she's not doping, which makes it more impressive). I don't know if she'll return to that kind of form, but I hope she does.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
I guess the Olympics don't count. I view going to the Olympics as going somewhere.
So do I. I think that from our perspective as runners, making an Olympic team is huge and should count as "having a great career." But from the perspective of a fan, making the team and then going out in the heats or getting 11th in the final is all just too uninteresting to count as a big success.
Imagine you are watching the race live. The gun goes off, Hassan and Gidey are racing, the American is so far behind that she is never in the camera shot. Even if she runs a PR, there is no way to "care" because the race was 200 meters up the track...
We would care if we actually knew these athletes as friends or family, but as a fan, I usually don't know much about athletes who aren't relevant to the outcome of the races.
Millions of us were very excited to see Valby in the lead near the end of the race. Sounds like you dreamed about a race that didn't happen. Sorry that your life is so miserable that you didn't get excited about a young American competing with the best women in history.
Hard to say both are scary good. Tuohy ran a 15:30 5k in an indoor track when she was only 15 and ran a 4:23 mile at 18 or 19. Women are more prone to injury as their bodies continue to develop, so she has a fantastic future should she have extended periods of good health. Parker is just a fearless killer. She may be unbeatable in a few years.
Fearless killer? There have been countless strength runners whose only chance of winning is to push the pace.
I guess the Olympics don't count. I view going to the Olympics as going somewhere.
So do I. I think that from our perspective as runners, making an Olympic team is huge and should count as "having a great career." But from the perspective of a fan, making the team and then going out in the heats or getting 11th in the final is all just too uninteresting to count as a big success.
Imagine you are watching the race live. The gun goes off, Hassan and Gidey are racing, the American is so far behind that she is never in the camera shot. Even if she runs a PR, there is no way to "care" because the race was 200 meters up the track...
We would care if we actually knew these athletes as friends or family, but as a fan, I usually don't know much about athletes who aren't relevant to the outcome of the races.
If Hassan and Gidey are going for it, being only 200m back will require setting an AR.
Millions of us were very excited to see Valby in the lead near the end of the race. Sounds like you dreamed about a race that didn't happen. Sorry that your life is so miserable that you didn't get excited about a young American competing with the best women in history.
Doubtful that millions were excited. Casual track fans probably didn't watch that race very closely as it was too long, and they don't get very excited when an American challenges a race -- so many Americans win medals in the sprints that it is not a big deal.
Experienced track fans knew she was going to get blown away when the intensity picked up, so while they may have liked her move to go to the lead, no one who knew anything about the race seriously thought she could contend in a fast finish against those women.
Well, you omitted one objective fact, one is an Olympian now, and the other one is not.
So Tuohy is behind on both accomplishments, and times.
In four years, additionally, there will be another wave of talent competing in the 5,000. Statistically, the odds are against Kaitlyn being able to even match Valby's current accomplishments.
There is too much subjective behavior regarding Tuohy. She is not an Olympian, she has fewer NCAA titles, she has slower PRs and Valby holds the NCAA records now.
Again, in Valby's short post collegiate career, she has already accomplished quite a bit that Tuohy is light years behind right now. Valby doubled at the trials, and went 3rd and 4th.
Longer career with mediocre results and accolades is meaningless. If she doesn't make the Olympics or win outdoor national titles, then who really cares.
Well, you omitted one objective fact, one is an Olympian now, and the other one is not.
So Tuohy is behind on both accomplishments, and times.
In four years, additionally, there will be another wave of talent competing in the 5,000. Statistically, the odds are against Kaitlyn being able to even match Valby's current accomplishments.
There is too much subjective behavior regarding Tuohy. She is not an Olympian, she has fewer NCAA titles, she has slower PRs and Valby holds the NCAA records now.
Again, in Valby's short post collegiate career, she has already accomplished quite a bit that Tuohy is light years behind right now. Valby doubled at the trials, and went 3rd and 4th.
If Jessica Hull can run 3:50 why can't American women run that fast?
They don't have EPO in their Vegemite, mate.
If the Chicago marathon winner ran 15:00 for her first 5K and Tuohy's fastest 5,000 is 15:03, it is game over UNLESS she takes drugs. She will never compete with those women. Valby either. They will get participant trophies and medals but nothing else.