2020420 wrote:
Why does everyone forget that Jakob missed 3 months of training in his buildup this year? I agree everything has to be perfect for him and he will probably only barely get the record if he does, but 3:26.73 clearly is not his limit. Everyone keeps saying "he can't run much faster" and he continues to run faster every year, chipping away incrementally. I think 2025/2026 will be his last chance to do it though, if he doesn't have any injuries in the next year I think he will do it in Monaco next year and finally get the monkey off his back.
So you think 3 months was the difference between the ability to go after the WR in the 1500 or not? So by that theory what should he have run in the 3000m a few weeks ago given the loss of those 3 months? 7.14? This is not the way it works - honestly those 3 months off were probably a god-send for him given his incredible volume of high performance racing this guy does and at his age and ability the bounce-back to form doesn't take long at all and no, I don't think 3 months of base work affected his long term ceiling at all.
While I don't disagree with you that 3.26.73 is his limit I do think he is approaching it. And I think we are talking 2-3 tenths and not closer to the 7 or 8 tenths he needs for the 1500m record. To break this record he simply has to be 2.45.5 at 1200m at the absolute slowest - he does not have sub 40 ability over 2.46.X like El G did (that's fine, they were totally different runners) and as he gets quicker through 1200m, these low 40.X closes (40.36 in Monaco, 40.32 in Silesia - see the pattern?) are going to be stretched more in to the 40.5/6 range. This means totally unchartered territory for him at 1200m which we haven't even seen him even remotely entertain yet. This is going to require him to get out much faster than 55.8, 1.51.0 but we saw what happened in Paris when he attempted something closer to 55.0.
Someone else wrote he isn't really "equipped" to do this and honestly people getting upset at that are more upset with the terminology than the reality because it's not really incorrect. Jakob is not an anaerobic power guy - he doesn't have the anaerobic threshold profile of even guys like Cram, Coe - even Morceli, El G which is why he isn't ballistic over 800m, but his ability to run just below his threshold (which is still incredibly good) for sustained distances is historically unmatched. In the same way Jakob is "better equipped" to run a 3000m than an 800m, what this 1500m requires could not quite align with that and I simply have no idea why people are so defensive about it - it's not a damn criticism of the guy.