He is delusional, Joshua Cheptegei has ran the fastest 5000 and 10000 ever, is shorter and lighter than Ingebrigsten, and even a hack like Brett Robinson, who spends his time making dumb podcasts, has ran faster over the marathon than Cheptegei.
In this article Ingebrigsten admits that the monotony of easy runs sometimes get the better of him. That is not good for someone who thinks they can get the marathon world record, because marathon training will be a lot more monotonous.
He also says that he has never ran more than 20km, which is how far his long runs are, and this article was published in 2023.
To excel at the marathon he will need to run longer long runs, and continuous tempo runs, not just thresh intervals, he will need to do things like 20k at MP and longer runs at 90% MP. I'm sure Chep was running more than 20k in his long run when he got the 5k/10k records, but he still hasn't ran a good marathon yet.
He hasn't even ran a 5000 faster than 12:48 yet, which I do believe he could get the WR in that event, but how soon is he going to run a 10000 (on the track).
marathon wr for Jakob = delusion, and Jakob = delusional tatted narcissist
I think you have some good reasoning here, that might or might not be right. But I also think your bias against Jakob as a person “deludes” you. So here is where I think you are wrong:
1. First of all I think you must difference between “delusional “ and “being wrong”. When Kerr, f.x, says he always have been very good (at running) he is ,IMO, delusional, because he clearly wasn’t very good as a teenager (of course relatively speaking, to how good he is now, and how good most other very good runners were in their youth). So “delusional “ IMO should be reserved for those who deny a reality that is settled, and not for those who are wrong about the future.-Jakob might be wrong about his long distance capabilities. But if he give those events a try, and sees that he sucks and acknowledges that he has no talent there, he was simply wrong (as we all sometimes are about the future), and not delusional…
2. You use Cheptegei as a reference for how difficult it is to transit from track to half and full marathon, and I think you have got a point. But the Ugandan runs significantly less mileage than Jakob, and is on a whole different lower level when it comes to consistency.
3. We don’t know for sure how body shape restricts marathon performance -Tergat for instance, is tall…
4. We don’t know how much monotonous mileage training or long runs a marathon runner have to do. -Grete Waitz, who at least for a period was the best marathoner in the world did seldom run longer than Jakob…
5. Jakob being a narcissist - I don’t think you have a clue here. I have been deeply interested in narcissism my whole life -in my education, work life, reading and discussion with experts. And I can firmly tell you this: No way Jakob is a narcissist. If you think dreaming great dreams and confronting the surroundings with a balanced and (even dominant) self is narcissism, then you don’t know much about inflated narcissism…
And we’re to believe that he can accomplish this by using ‘the Norwegian method’?
this fellow is a gleaming example of being medically trained and assisted, but I guess people like to play pretend about how he turned distance running on it’s head.
Lets assume that he gets around to giving each event a real honest shot. I think best case scenario he misses out on the steeple and marathon. The steeple is just such a technical event and would take time to really nail it (yes, I know he's done it before, but its been 7 years since he last raced it). The marathon I think requires a bigger shift in training than he will be able to manage.
The bigger issue here though is that he doesn't have enough time to get them all. Having lost the 1500m in Paris, I expect he'll be giving it another shot in LA 4 years from now. I don't know if his ego will allow him to move on from that event until he has gold in hand, regardless of whether he snags the WR before then.
So that precludes him from making any real attempts at any events over 5K until 2029 at the absolute earliest. At that point he'll be 28 give or take, and (assuming he's gotten 1500m through 5000m) he will still have the 10K, HM, and marathon left. Races that are conducive to WR attempts (conditions, timing, competition) don't happen often, not necessarily even every year. So I think its unlikely he's able to line up each event within those constraints.
Also, while age is less of an issue for 10K and up, the longevity of his brothers (or lack thereof) don't bode well for his ability to keep training at a high enough level to get WRs in those longer events.
This isn't to say he's not capable of getting all of them, I think he absolutely is (barring the steeple and marathon maybe). So he's not necessarily delusional. But I think from a practical standpoint its just not likely.
I disagree about the LA 2028 part. He's already got a 1500m olympic gold from Tokyo, thus I wouldn't be super surprised if he shifted away from the 1500m after Tokyo 2025(if he gets the WR in Brussels or next year).
In sports nothing an athlete says is what they want to do counts for anything.
Yeah, all these predictions for any event longer than 5000m, are solely based on Ingebrigtsen saying he can set WRs at those distances. I seriously doubt he’ll ever run the steeple, HM or marathon.
I hope he runs world XC in 2026, as that would be a good indicator of how he matches up against the East-Africans at 10K. In the 2019 U20 race at 8K, he finished in 12th place, about 50 seconds back.
In sports nothing an athlete says is what they want to do counts for anything.
It doesn't count for anything. But for sure it belongs to such discussions.
What do you think, how many of the remaining 7 WRs will he set?
I think he has a very good chance for the 5000m and probably for the steeple. I don't think he will get the 1500m. For the rest I'm uncertain. And you?
You're quite probably right about that one - Jakob's 1500 PR is IAAF points equivalent to the current mile WR (at least according to the calculator I used).
I'm still not sure I'd rank it as softer than the 3000SC or 5000 for Jakob, though.
In sports nothing an athlete says is what they want to do counts for anything.
It doesn't count for anything. But for sure it belongs to such discussions.
What do you think, how many of the remaining 7 WRs will he set?
I think he has a very good chance for the 5000m and probably for the steeple. I don't think he will get the 1500m. For the rest I'm uncertain. And you?
Do you know Armstrong? He will NEVER predict that Jakob will break any WR.
He would like to recall the WRs he already has.
It is only an accident that Jakob doesn´t have the mile yet and as you said the 5000m should be easy when he gets the opportunity to join a fast race under good conditions.
To the people who don´t think he can break the steeple WR:
The steeple specialists runs the steeple 22-23 seconds slower than their 3000m flat time. Steeplers with bad technigue have a bigger split. WR holder Girma ran 28 seconds slower in the steeple than in his 3000mPB (= 3000m indoor WR).
Jakob has won a national champ, won U20 Euros and qualified for the WC in the steeple all at the age of 16. If he runs 30 seconds slower in the steeple than in his 3000m PB he will break the steeple WR with almost 5 seconds.
It doesn't count for anything. But for sure it belongs to such discussions.
What do you think, how many of the remaining 7 WRs will he set?
I think he has a very good chance for the 5000m and probably for the steeple. I don't think he will get the 1500m. For the rest I'm uncertain. And you?
Do you know Armstrong? He will NEVER predict that Jakob will break any WR.
He would like to recall the WRs he already has.
It is only an accident that Jakob doesn´t have the mile yet and as you said the 5000m should be easy when he gets the opportunity to join a fast race under good conditions.
To the people who don´t think he can break the steeple WR:
The steeple specialists runs the steeple 22-23 seconds slower than their 3000m flat time. Steeplers with bad technigue have a bigger split. WR holder Girma ran 28 seconds slower in the steeple than in his 3000mPB (= 3000m indoor WR).
Jakob has won a national champ, won U20 Euros and qualified for the WC in the steeple all at the age of 16. If he runs 30 seconds slower in the steeple than in his 3000m PB he will break the steeple WR with almost 5 seconds.
I know him - unfortunately.
With a little bit of concentration on it, the steeple WR definitely should be possible. And - as you said - not only by some small margin.
At the moment, Ingebrigtsen still has a very good chance to become the greatest distance runner in history. Armstrong calls this fandom - but I'm not a fan of Ingebrigtsen. But it says a lot about Armstrong, that he thinks you need to be a fan of some athlete to give him credit for his achievements.
If Ingebrigtsen says he is better at he HM I don't give him credit for some achievement he still hasn't done - but it raises my interest to what he actually will do in the future.
The steeple specialists runs the steeple 22-23 seconds slower than their 3000m flat time. Steeplers with bad technigue have a bigger split. WR holder Girma ran 28 seconds slower in the steeple than in his 3000mPB (= 3000m indoor WR).
Seems about right - The delta between Jakob's 2017 steeple PR and his 3000 from the same year (8:26.81 vs 8:00.01) was 26.8 seconds.
On the other hand, would land him in the 7:42 - 7:43 range for the steeple, depending on whether you treat it as a delta or a ratio. This would pretty much break the WA scoring tables (7:43 is 1339 points).
Personally, I think 7:47-7:48 is more realistic for him, given he doesn't practice the event.
I think he is definitely running out of time to get the 1500 and Mile. He of course has gotten close to both, but it seems like only a couple times a year can he put together such an effort as opposed to being 1-3 seconds off those records. If he doesn't get those records in the next two years I doubt he will. So I'm guessing he'll be taking a few shots at each of those over the next two years.
He already has the 2k and 3k records. Steeple seems funny and random cuz he's not a steepler. Not that it would take a ton of steeple training for him to be good at it given his 3k record, but it just seems weird that'd he'd even try for it. 5k and 10k he definitely has a shot at once he moves out of mid-distance to focus on distance training. Who knows about the HM and Marathon. He could run 57min and 2:00, or he could run 59 and 2:05, no way to know until he starts training for them and doing them. Shorter people seems to tend to be better at those really long races so him being fairly tall might make the HM and Marathon harder to get than say the 5k and 10k.
I'd say he has a shot at all 10, though that doesn't mean all 10 would be his at the same time. But I think most likely he won't get several of those, like maybe he doesn't get the mile, the steeple, the marathon, and one other (just from everything not coming together perfectly in one race for him in one of the other distances).
Yeah, all these predictions for any event longer than 5000m, are solely based on Ingebrigtsen saying he can set WRs at those distances. I seriously doubt he’ll ever run the steeple, HM or marathon.
I hope he runs world XC in 2026, as that would be a good indicator of how he matches up against the East-Africans at 10K. In the 2019 U20 race at 8K, he finished in 12th place, about 50 seconds back.
He has said he won’t race a hilly worlds xc (for obvious reasons). But I too hope to see him in a regular course.