for being one of the most in shape and healthy humans on the planet Jakob certainly gets sick a lot.
Yes it’s his schedule. Though the fanboys disagree because they like to see him race so often. But then you get ill when it matters like at the Worlds or when you’re going head to head with Kerr with about 3 head to head loses under your belt..
If it was that obvious to you that 3 runners who have never ran 3:28 would all run 3:27 in the same race then I'm sure you could've made a lot of money betting on that outcome.
tbh, I don't think it's a stretch to think Kerr and Nuguse could run 3:27. Nuguse ran a 3:43 last year, while Kerr also improved quite a bit this year and he already ran a low 3:29 with a 53 last year. Hocker though, was really a surprise, I thought he "only" was in 3:28 shape under the right circumstances.
You might be right that Kerr and Nuguse could run 3:27...
Paris was NOT an anomaly. It was entirely predictable. And something that happens FOUR times in a row is not an anomaly!!
As the “pacemaker”, he does not have a big enough fitness gap in the 1500m over the field of championship racers (for longer distances, it’s another story).
He was a “3:26 guy with pacers” running as a “3:28 guy without pacers” against a pack of “about to become 3:27 guys”. Outcome inevitable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins in Zurich because he’ll have is pacers and Wavelights back. Meanwhile, this race is an afterthought for the other guys.
But to say Paris was an anomaly is just stupid and foolish.
If it was that obvious to you that 3 runners who have never ran 3:28 would all run 3:27 in the same race then I'm sure you could've made a lot of money betting on that outcome.
Indeed it was obvious Jakob was going to lose. TBH though, I wouldn’t have predicted Jakob would be out of the medals. Honestly, I thought it would be Kerr again, but if not Kerr, then Hocker (after that US Olympic trials performance where it was clear he had more in the tank). Can’t say I’m surprised they both beat him. But I am a bit surprised Neguse beat him.
I actually thought Jakob would lose in Budapest (though wasn’t sure at the time who would do it). After the “I am the pacesetter” thing the writing was on the wall.
He’ll lose again next year in Tokyo if he stays predictable with the whole “pacesetter” thing…. “Hey guys, I’m going to go out in a steady 3:28, or maybe 3:27 and I don’t have a finishing kick - see if you can beat me!” I’d put my money on the field.
If he changes things up - both in terms of strategy and training - i.e., if he does a bit more ‘intense race-specific’ work (the type of work he says he never does) and develops a slightly better kick - then he gives himself a better chance. But he has to do it in an unpredictable way.
I know I come across as anti-Jakob tut I’m honestly rooting for him to do exactly that!
If it was that obvious to you that 3 runners who have never ran 3:28 would all run 3:27 in the same race then I'm sure you could've made a lot of money betting on that outcome.
Indeed it was obvious Jakob was going to lose. TBH though, I wouldn’t have predicted Jakob would be out of the medals. Honestly, I thought it would be Kerr again, but if not Kerr, then Hocker (after that US Olympic trials performance where it was clear he had more in the tank). Can’t say I’m surprised they both beat him. But I am a bit surprised Neguse beat him.
I actually thought Jakob would lose in Budapest (though wasn’t sure at the time who would do it). After the “I am the pacesetter” thing the writing was on the wall.
He’ll lose again next year in Tokyo if he stays predictable with the whole “pacesetter” thing…. “Hey guys, I’m going to go out in a steady 3:28, or maybe 3:27 and I don’t have a finishing kick - see if you can beat me!” I’d put my money on the field.
If he changes things up - both in terms of strategy and training - i.e., if he does a bit more ‘intense race-specific’ work (the type of work he says he never does) and develops a slightly better kick - then he gives himself a better chance. But he has to do it in an unpredictable way.
I know I come across as anti-Jakob tut I’m honestly rooting for him to do exactly that!
I disagree that Jakob lacks kick. He did run a 51 second last lap in the Budapest semi. He also ran a 12 secs 100m as a 12-yo, his speed can't be that bad as a miler. What he needs is believing himself having a kick (I think he front-runs partly because he never trusts his own kick, but again I don't think that's the case) and a more sound tactic, like doing it the El g way.
As for training, I have a hunch he's someone who can withstand a lot of mileage and threshold/steady work but not quite the traditional speedwork. He may injury himself if he drastically changes his training.
I still remember Jakob running that 3:43 and 7:23 back to back late last season and that was insane and he had to kick hard to win both races! And now he ran the 7:17 just a week ago. Crazy! It's like he is getting faster each week. Remember last year he was beat in the world champs 1500m but two weeks later ran that crazy fast world record 2,000 and that set things up for that mile/3k double. He's a machine!
I still remember Jakob running that 3:43 and 7:23 back to back late last season and that was insane and he had to kick hard to win both races! And now he ran the 7:17 just a week ago. Crazy! It's like he is getting faster each week. Remember last year he was beat in the world champs 1500m but two weeks later ran that crazy fast world record 2,000 and that set things up for that mile/3k double. He's a machine!
He did get sidelined for his insane schedule though, so he's still flesh and bone, so to speak. Hope he doesn't overdo it this year, as he is GOAT material if he stays healthy.
tbh, I don't think it's a stretch to think Kerr and Nuguse could run 3:27. Nuguse ran a 3:43 last year, while Kerr also improved quite a bit this year and he already ran a low 3:29 with a 53 last year. Hocker though, was really a surprise, I thought he "only" was in 3:28 shape under the right circumstances.
You might be right that Kerr and Nuguse could run 3:27...
I think Kerr can run under 3:27. I think if he had raced Monaco he would have been right there in the 3:26.7x's with Jakob.
Indeed it was obvious Jakob was going to lose. TBH though, I wouldn’t have predicted Jakob would be out of the medals. Honestly, I thought it would be Kerr again, but if not Kerr, then Hocker (after that US Olympic trials performance where it was clear he had more in the tank). Can’t say I’m surprised they both beat him. But I am a bit surprised Neguse beat him.
I actually thought Jakob would lose in Budapest (though wasn’t sure at the time who would do it). After the “I am the pacesetter” thing the writing was on the wall.
He’ll lose again next year in Tokyo if he stays predictable with the whole “pacesetter” thing…. “Hey guys, I’m going to go out in a steady 3:28, or maybe 3:27 and I don’t have a finishing kick - see if you can beat me!” I’d put my money on the field.
If he changes things up - both in terms of strategy and training - i.e., if he does a bit more ‘intense race-specific’ work (the type of work he says he never does) and develops a slightly better kick - then he gives himself a better chance. But he has to do it in an unpredictable way.
I know I come across as anti-Jakob tut I’m honestly rooting for him to do exactly that!
I disagree that Jakob lacks kick. He did run a 51 second last lap in the Budapest semi. He also ran a 12 secs 100m as a 12-yo, his speed can't be that bad as a miler. What he needs is believing himself having a kick (I think he front-runs partly because he never trusts his own kick, but again I don't think that's the case) and a more sound tactic, like doing it the El g way.
As for training, I have a hunch he's someone who can withstand a lot of mileage and threshold/steady work but not quite the traditional speedwork. He may injury himself if he drastically changes his training.
All fair points. Perhaps I shouldn’t say he ‘has no kick’… clearly he does. But Kerr and Hocker have all that and then some.
Also, I agree on the lack of confidence in his kick and the tendancy to do the EL G thing. El G had a slightly bigger fitness gap on his competitors though.
If it was that obvious to you that 3 runners who have never ran 3:28 would all run 3:27 in the same race then I'm sure you could've made a lot of money betting on that outcome.
I don’t think I’m the only one on this board who cashed 31:1 on Hocker. That being said wavelight and rabbits changes the game because with both Tim, Jakob and now even Kerr at Pre they are all good enough to squeeze and drop a 13-low (or faster) last 100 in a 3:26hi-8 with the benefit of lights/rabbits. It’s much harder without. Hockers USAs/Paris form was sensational though, and hopefully we see his vintage close against these guys in a circuit race.
I’m guessing Kessler going to be in this as well which will make it epic seeing the top 6 guys from Paris all in Zurich.
I know Jakob has Kerr in the back of his head. He doesn’t want to lose 4 straight to him. Going for the WR isn’t the best strategy to beat him because of the risk he could blow up the last 100m. But maybe he’s very confident he can at least run 3:27.5 with pacers so maybe he goes for it.
There’s nothing to lose and Ingebrigtsen will be focused on running the fastest time possible.
Nothing to lose? Ugh, I would totally disagree with that.
I think Jakob has clearly done a great job post Paris - destroying Hocker in Lausanne and of course the 3000m WR last weekend. He wants to win this race - the last time he set out trying to run the "fastest time possible" he imploded in the final 50m and got rolled by 3 guys - all of whom are in this race. Yes it's different with wavelight - but he is still the one guy that I think week in, week out can go out there run sub 3.28. I don't think that is the case with the other 3.
I think winning this race matters far more to him than the time.
Paris was NOT an anomaly. It was entirely predictable. And something that happens FOUR times in a row is not an anomaly!!
As the “pacemaker”, he does not have a big enough fitness gap in the 1500m over the field of championship racers (for longer distances, it’s another story).
He was a “3:26 guy with pacers” running as a “3:28 guy without pacers” against a pack of “about to become 3:27 guys”. Outcome inevitable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins in Zurich because he’ll have is pacers and Wavelights back. Meanwhile, this race is an afterthought for the other guys.
But to say Paris was an anomaly is just stupid and foolish.
Reading and comprehension mate - it's important.
I'll guarantee you to Jakob Ingebrigtsen Paris was an anomaly - and that is really all that matters. Hence he has something to prove out there - he's certainly run like it in Lausanne and Silesia.
You can sit here on your high horse and say it was predictable - I certainly didn't predict that he would go out in 54.8 and melt to a 4th place finish. The reality is that race could have played out many different ways and in some of those scenarios he could have won it. He still has the highest ceiling for any 1500m runner on the planet - that doesn't mean he wins every race.
But the way that race unfolded and ended up was definitely unusual - even if you want to point to the fact he didn't win as being a "constant".
There’s nothing to lose and Ingebrigtsen will be focused on running the fastest time possible.
Nothing to lose? Ugh, I would totally disagree with that.
I think Jakob has clearly done a great job post Paris - destroying Hocker in Lausanne and of course the 3000m WR last weekend. He wants to win this race - the last time he set out trying to run the "fastest time possible" he imploded in the final 50m and got rolled by 3 guys - all of whom are in this race. Yes it's different with wavelight - but he is still the one guy that I think week in, week out can go out there run sub 3.28. I don't think that is the case with the other 3.
I think winning this race matters far more to him than the time.
Does it matter if Hocker loses this race? The answer is that it doesn’t. He won the biggest race of the year, by far, in Paris.
Isn't it paced? I think Hocker had a 3:26 in him in Paris, but idk if he has that in him anymore. Same with Kerr, they typically run their best in championships. Jakob just ran 7:17 though, and I like that kinda fitness in a paced 1500m.
You're being a bit Captain Obvious here. Of course it's paced.
More nuanced breakdown:
Jakob - Would go off as a slight favorite due to it being paced and clearly still in supreme shape after his 7:17 3,000m. But we heard he's been sick a few days ago. In the past, that has affect him like in Monaco 2021 where he ran 3:29-something and Katir/Tim beat him pretty easily. So, he might be a bit diminished for this one, which certainly opens the door if he can "only" run a 3:28-29.
Kerr- Hasn't really shared too much of how he's bounced back from Paris, but will be the freshest in the field for this one. With Jakob's illness, you've got to like his chances because he obviously has been at a very high level all year from Indoor Worlds to Pre to Paris. Last year he ran well after Worlds, and this would be the sort of signature victory for him to call it a season, end up 3-0 vs. Jakob and then do Grand Slam Track.
Nuguse- Just got beat by Giles in a road mile running 3:51.9. Don't want to overreact too much because I suspect he was not anticipating much competition. Still, he looked like he was going hard and there was $ on the line. Downgrade his chances as maybe he's enjoyed his bronze a bit.
Hocker- I am confident he will be a factor here and run a 3:28 type time (if the race is fast) or be competitive if it's slower. Ran decently in Lausanne, but it seems the really fast mid-race pace and adjustment psychologically hit him a bit. Put together a strong workout he showed after, and seems to be intent to closing the season out strong.
Dark Horse (Laros) - Expecting him in here, and skipped World Juniors which would've been a great shot at gold for him. Assuming he did that to beat a lifetime PB here or in the DL Final. He'd be probably the only guy *gaining* fitness at this stage based on his youth and uneven spring.
the above is excellent. wasn't expecting that from the peanut gallery.
if jacob is well and he has pacing till 1Km , then jacob.
if jacob is coming off sickness, like anyone else, you write him off. though hes the only guy i know that would show up with his B game and lay it on the line.
Kerr should be peaking over the rest. He can threaten the WR with the perfect ride to 1300m.
Laros may be 5 th in the world, so he can squeak in there for 3rd.
Hocker can do well if he gets the free ride, and is allowed a free run on the rail via miracle .repeating. which is not so likely.
you have to draft at least 60% of the race no matter who you are.
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