But that just shows how naive some of you are. To say that you would “almost be shocked” if the 3000m record isn’t blown apart by Jakob in a few days reveals a colossal ignorance about the demands of world class racing. There is no guarantee that Jakob will ever put it all together on the right day. Jakob doesn’t have much margin for error, so I will do you a favor and advise you to not “almost be shocked” if Jakob does not blow apart the 3000m record. There is a reason it has stood for almost 28 years. Although it is true that Jakob has shown that he can break it, having the ability and doing it are two different things.
It was always no question, that Komen's Mark was behind the 1500m and 5000m marks.
El G has had one badly paced attempt and was just 2.42s away. And he was much better over 1500m. Geb and Bekele has had there strongest distance between 5000m and 10000m. 3000 was way too short for them.
We do not know that Hicham was “much better” at 1500m than 3000m. We know he was the best in the world at 1500m, which he raced often in comparison, but we also know that nobody in the world would have been favored to beat Hicham at 3000m.
You are so right - I wasn't sure I would ever see this record being broken and now here we are. You look at the list of historically elite talent that almost seemed to just concede the record was too good and almost give up on it. Bekele, Geb couldn't break 7.25, Hicham ran as hard as I've ever seen him run on the circuit and was 2.5 seconds short and he never bothered again - it seemed inconceivable.
Like you said, I'd almost be shocked if it wasn't blow apart in 4 days time.
You don’t think this can turn into a tactical race as soon as the rabbits are off? When Jakob ran the 2 mile world best in Paris, he didn’t have that much competition. Here he can turn into the pacer, I’m afraid, and be passed in the last 50.
This is also something I fear. Kejelcha shouldn’t be underestimated here, he was right on Jakob last year running 7:23 with a 54 last lap. Always a possibility it goes so wrong for Jakob.
When the mark was set, it was strong. The 5k mark was 12:44.39 at the time and those two were close to each other (probably the 5k Mark still little bit better). The 5k mark now is 12:35.36.
It was always no question, that Komen's Mark was behind the 1500m and 5000m marks.
El G has had one badly paced attempt and was just 2.42s away. And he was much better over 1500m. Geb and Bekele has had there strongest distance between 5000m and 10000m. 3000 was way too short for them.
We do not know that Hicham was “much better” at 1500m than 3000m. We know he was the best in the world at 1500m, which he raced often in comparison, but we also know that nobody in the world would have been favored to beat Hicham at 3000m.
1500m was his event during his full career. He called it "his distance".
He has racedcthe 5k once and the 3k/2M 4 times outside the Champs. 1500m/1M well over 100 times.
As for El Guerrouj, IIRC he got like 1K worth of pacing at 2:29+ and then ran ~2:25 for the second K trying too aggressively to get back on WR schedule, so yes he was hurting in the last 800 and “only” ran 7:23.09 the one time he ever made an attempt.
7:20.67 has always been very strong but not as unassailable as the top-list at face value makes it seem.
I agree Bekele could have gone well under 7.25, but didn't have the mile speed to really challenge the record (he needed low 3.47 speed - just off Komen). So I wonder if he just wondered what difference it made if he ran 7.25.X or 7.23.high and it never became a priority for him (clearly wasn't as he never really committed to it)
We do not know that Hicham was “much better” at 1500m than 3000m. We know he was the best in the world at 1500m, which he raced often in comparison, but we also know that nobody in the world would have been favored to beat Hicham at 3000m.
1500m was his event during his full career. He called it "his distance".
He has racedcthe 5k once and the 3k/2M 4 times outside the Champs. 1500m/1M well over 100 times.
Yes, he was much better over 1500m.
No that is your opinion and there is not enough evidence to back you up. 3000m is not a championship event so of course Hicham wasn’t focused on it. Hicham would have been virtually unbeatable at 3000m in his prime, so it was a great distance for him, as obviously 1500m was.
When the mark was set, it was strong. The 5k mark was 12:44.39 at the time and those two were close to each other (probably the 5k Mark still little bit better). The 5k mark now is 12:35.36.
A comparable 3k mark is under 7:17.
To say that a comparable 3000m record (in relation to 12:35) would be 7:16xx again does not mean much of anything. We are not aware that any runner has ever been physically able to run 7:16xx. So what we know is that 3:29 and 12:39 Daniel Komen ran 7:20.67. So I am not sure who this mythical creature is who would be running 7:16xx. Is he capable of 3:26 and 12:37? We do not know that such a runner has ever existed. We do not know what Jakob is capable of at 5000m. We know he has run 12:48 and we have good reason to think he can run faster, maybe close to 12:40. We just don’t know.
You don’t think this can turn into a tactical race as soon as the rabbits are off? When Jakob ran the 2 mile world best in Paris, he didn’t have that much competition. Here he can turn into the pacer, I’m afraid, and be passed in the last 50.
While it technically is possible, I simply don't think that happens.
With wavelight, the rabbits are never off - in fact human bodies "pacing" these days are almost a waste of money from the meets. Unless you have a ton of wind in the stadium (which at this time of the year in central Europe it's rare), the guys are far more interested in lights than the backs of singlets.
Watch any of Jakobs big races - he plants himself at the top of those green lights each and every time and basically runs with one eye looking at them. The rabbits are never "off" anymore - not unless these lights get banned (they won't).
As for someone passing him? I just don't even know who that would be unless he has an absolute meltdown out there. But this distance is essentially perfect for his strengths - I think he could be at 90% out there and still win in a quick time.
No that is your opinion and there is not enough evidence to back you up. 3000m is not a championship event so of course Hicham wasn’t focused on it. Hicham would have been virtually unbeatable at 3000m in his prime, so it was a great distance for him, as obviously 1500m was.
Well there is some evidence.
He could have run far more 3000m races than he chose to run - but didn't. Here was a guy who could have got any meet director on the planet to put on a 3000m for him at any time he wanted - but didn't. He simply liked running the 1500 and mile.
You are confusing competence and desire here. Yes Hicham was very competent at distances above the mile. Clearly. He's still officially the second fastest man ever over 2000m and 3000m and he's an Olympic 5000m champion. But that doesn't automatically mean he had a ton of desire to race those distances (he only ever attempted one 3000 and one 5000 while in his absolute prime years on the circuit).
I don't think it's a stretch to say the fact he didn't run more of these races in time-trial like settings (when he easily could have) is good evidence he preferred the 1500/mile more - especially when those distances accounted for like 95% of his European circuit races in his 10 year career.
His current best mile is 3:43.73. His 2 mile best is 7:54.10 which converts as 3:43.73 X2 + 26.64s
If we apply the same conversion to the 1500m and 3000m given they are very similar distances we get his current 1500m PB of 3:26.73 X2 + 26.64s = 7:20.10 = New World Record.
Fair logic?
Slightly better would be to use the ratio between times i.e. your 26.64 should scale up as the distance gets longer.
7:54.10 / 3:43.73 = 2.11907
2.11907 * 3:26.73 = 7:18.08
Why is this so far under the world record? Two reasons:
1) Jakob's two-mile time is already superior to the 3k WR
2) His two-mile time is most likely superior to his mile. So this calculation assumes that his 3k will likewise be superior to his 1500, but that's not necessarily true.
No that is your opinion and there is not enough evidence to back you up. 3000m is not a championship event so of course Hicham wasn’t focused on it. Hicham would have been virtually unbeatable at 3000m in his prime, so it was a great distance for him, as obviously 1500m was.
Well there is some evidence.
He could have run far more 3000m races than he chose to run - but didn't. Here was a guy who could have got any meet director on the planet to put on a 3000m for him at any time he wanted - but didn't. He simply liked running the 1500 and mile.
You are confusing competence and desire here. Yes Hicham was very competent at distances above the mile. Clearly. He's still officially the second fastest man ever over 2000m and 3000m and he's an Olympic 5000m champion. But that doesn't automatically mean he had a ton of desire to race those distances (he only ever attempted one 3000 and one 5000 while in his absolute prime years on the circuit).
I don't think it's a stretch to say the fact he didn't run more of these races in time-trial like settings (when he easily could have) is good evidence he preferred the 1500/mile more - especially when those distances accounted for like 95% of his European circuit races in his 10 year career.
Well the other poster stated that Hicham was “much better” at 1500m than 3000m. I have pushed back on that as being inconclusive. As for Hicham’s alleged preference for the 1500m, I never weighed in on that as I do not consider it to be particular germane to a discussion of his abilities, especially when, as you know, the 1500m is a “glamorous” event and a global championship event, and the 3000m is neither.
As for El Guerrouj, IIRC he got like 1K worth of pacing at 2:29+ and then ran ~2:25 for the second K trying too aggressively to get back on WR schedule, so yes he was hurting in the last 800 and “only” ran 7:23.09 the one time he ever made an attempt.
7:20.67 has always been very strong but not as unassailable as the top-list at face value makes it seem.
I agree Bekele could have gone well under 7.25, but didn't have the mile speed to really challenge the record (he needed low 3.47 speed - just off Komen). So I wonder if he just wondered what difference it made if he ran 7.25.X or 7.23.high and it never became a priority for him (clearly wasn't as he never really committed to it)
I could've seen Bekele getting down to 7:22 on the perfect day, but probably not the WR as you said. El G maybe, his 7:23 run alone with better pacing is probably worth 7:21.
So yeah the 3000 WR was never "soft" but it wasn't by far untouchable either. The 2 mile WR was definitely soft though.
His current best mile is 3:43.73. His 2 mile best is 7:54.10 which converts as 3:43.73 X2 + 26.64s
If we apply the same conversion to the 1500m and 3000m given they are very similar distances we get his current 1500m PB of 3:26.73 X2 + 26.64s = 7:20.10 = New World Record.
Fair logic?
I love how many non-elite runners use TOO MUCH science, data, equations, etc... to "Guess" and or "Predict" how fast someone is expected to run. On paper, yep! you're spot on, and the math says WORLD RECORD! Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way, and it's NEVER that easy. There are way too many variables at play to determine an exact outcome. For example, weather, race strategy, number of competitors, how the athlete feels, etc... They only see the end result and then make half a$$ assumptions as to why so and so didn't break the world record or run a certain time, and if they do achieve great results they MUST be cheating (super shoes/PED's).
So, to answer the original OP, JK is in prime fitness right now to run a 3000m WR. A few factors at play here, he had a delayed training phase due to his winter Achilles issue. I don't believe he lost anything with the injury, in fact, I believe it's allowed him to maintain his fitness longer, which in turn allowed him to build his aerobic engine later in the season. With the stronger base, combined with quality speed work and races, he's set himself up to run a 3000m WR. Hell, while at it, he should make a run at the 5000m as well.
Short answer: He's 5000m strong and 1500m fast, which equate to a 3000m WR.
I simply used the World Athletics scoring tables. Jakob's 7:54 is the equivalent performance of a 7:20 3,000m. 3,000 is probably Jakob's best distance so yeah, the record is in reach. Whether he runs it or not is anybody's guess.
When the mark was set, it was strong. The 5k mark was 12:44.39 at the time and those two were close to each other (probably the 5k Mark still little bit better). The 5k mark now is 12:35.36.
A comparable 3k mark is under 7:17.
To say that a comparable 3000m record (in relation to 12:35) would be 7:16xx again does not mean much of anything. We are not aware that any runner has ever been physically able to run 7:16xx. So what we know is that 3:29 and 12:39 Daniel Komen ran 7:20.67. So I am not sure who this mythical creature is who would be running 7:16xx. Is he capable of 3:26 and 12:37? We do not know that such a runner has ever existed. We do not know what Jakob is capable of at 5000m. We know he has run 12:48 and we have good reason to think he can run faster, maybe close to 12:40. We just don’t know.
I don't think such a runner has ever existed. And I have not said so. Ingebrigtsen probably is the first who should be capable. Will he do it with one attempt per season? We will see. Is his 7:54.10 his maximum over 2 Miles? Very unlikely - he has raced the distance once in his career. Do you think if he has had 5 attempts in any season and 2 Miles was always his main focus (like the 1500m is) that his PB still would be 7:54.10? For sure the 3k mark is almost always behind both the 1500 and 5k marks - that's what the athletes train for and usually run.
Well the other poster stated that Hicham was “much better” at 1500m than 3000m. I have pushed back on that as being inconclusive. As for Hicham’s alleged preference for the 1500m, I never weighed in on that as I do not consider it to be particular germane to a discussion of his abilities, especially when, as you know, the 1500m is a “glamorous” event and a global championship event, and the 3000m is neither.
Okay I get that, but you also don't think there is this tendency for athletes to simply want to run more of the event they believe themselves to be better at?
Look I think we are in essence agreeing because I also am 100% certain that Hicham could have run much faster over 3000m - In that era probably a second faster with more racing over the distance and with wavelight probably another second, tidying up race execution. So yes, I think 7.21.0 give or take a few tenths either side is where I would view his level hypothetically. Does that sound about right to you?
But there are two things at play with the 1500m v 3000m discussion.
1) The equivalent time for a 3.26.00 1500m is 7.20.30. I know the tables aren't perfect but they do a decent job. I don't think that even with wavelight Hicham was quite capable of that level. No I can't say for certain but that's my feeling.
2) Assuming we are bringing wavelight into the equation for him over 3000m we have to do the same over 1500m too because he never ever quite got the pace right despite the volume of races he ran. Incredibly he never once hit 1200m in 2.45.X in all of his sub 3.27 races - even though he was physically capable of it (because he split under 2.45.0 twice in his career, both in Rieti). So really Hicham with the right pacing in his prime could have also run well under 3.26.00.
I think based on that it's not terribly controversial to suggest he was better over 1500m than 3000m - even if in reality he never quite reached his ceiling in either event, or is it?