Jakob is going to put in a significant surge w/ 1200 remaining and then again with 600 remaining. Having Kerr in his semi played right into his best hand. If you want to beat Jingy, you need to be able to recover from a fast round and come back with one of the 15-20 fastest performances ever in the final. I would struggle to bet against Jakob if he dictates this sort of race, and I suspect he's very confident in himself in that race plan as well. An interesting wrinkle if that all happens -- he's extra hungry from this 1500m after the past two WCs and is putting more strain on his body before the 5000m than we've seen previously. Could open the door in the longer event.
How do you think men’s 1500 tactics play out?
Pro News/Info/Results
Distance
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Yared leads through 400 in 56.0 or so.
Jakob doesn’t go straight to the back this time, leaving that to Nordas, and takes the lead before 500m.
Kessler and Hocker try to run near the front on the rail, and Kerr bullies them at some point on lap 2 to take position behind Jakob and Nuguse.
Jakob 1:51.5 through 800 with Nuguse second and Kerr 3rd.
Kerr surprises by making his move with 500 to go. The race is on at this point and most are now laboring to keep in contact.
2:46.7 at 1200 with Jakob on Kerr’s ass and 3 meters back to Nuguse. Hocker moves into 3rd on the backstretch aiming to catch the top 2.
Coming off the last turn, Kerr starts rigging enough for Jakob to muscle past and win by 5 meters. Kerr survives for silver in a big PB, and Nuguse rallies to hawk Hocker for Bronze, Hocker’s famous kick voided by the super fast race.
1. Jakob 3:27.1
2. Kerr 3:27.8
3. Nuguse 3:28.3
4. Hocker 3:28.4
5. Laros 3:28.9
6. Nordas 3:29.1
7. Cheruiyot 3:29.7
8. Gourley 3:29.9
9. Kessler 3:30.2
10. Komen 3:30.8
11. Nillesen 3:31.5
12. Arese 3:31.8
The great thing is I don’t have to wait long to be proven totally wrong!
40 -
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Yared leads through 400 in 56.0 or so.
Jakob doesn’t go straight to the back this time, leaving that to Nordas, and takes the lead before 500m.
Kessler and Hocker try to run near the front on the rail, and Kerr bullies them at some point on lap 2 to take position behind Jakob and Nuguse.
Jakob 1:51.5 through 800 with Nuguse second and Kerr 3rd.
Kerr surprises by making his move with 500 to go. The race is on at this point and most are now laboring to keep in contact.
2:46.7 at 1200 with Jakob on Kerr’s ass and 3 meters back to Nuguse. Hocker moves into 3rd on the backstretch aiming to catch the top 2.
Coming off the last turn, Kerr starts rigging enough for Jakob to muscle past and win by 5 meters. Kerr survives for silver in a big PB, and Nuguse rallies to hawk Hocker for Bronze, Hocker’s famous kick voided by the super fast race.
1. Jakob 3:27.1
2. Kerr 3:27.8
3. Nuguse 3:28.3
4. Hocker 3:28.4
5. Laros 3:28.9
6. Nordas 3:29.1
7. Cheruiyot 3:29.7
8. Gourley 3:29.9
9. Kessler 3:30.2
10. Komen 3:30.8
11. Nillesen 3:31.5
12. Arese 3:31.8
The great thing is I don’t have to wait long to be proven totally wrong!
I think this is pretty accurate, but I think first lap is more like 57-58. Also, I don't think Kerr uses the Prefontaine strategy, i think he waits until 200m or even last 80m.
10 -
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
The problem Jakob has is that "getting it right" for him is really tough with little margin for error. I still think he can. We are going to find out in exactly 2 hours time!
Well there is your answer - it was far too tough with far too fine a margin for error :D
40 -
High hopes wrote:
Komen and Cheruiyot take it from the gun, Jakob walks off the line and comes around in the first 300 to try and take the lead if it's slow or slots in behind the Kenyans if the pace is good enough. Kerr, Hocker and Nuguse sit on Jakob who squeezes t every 100m. That's how it stays until 1200. Nuguse tries to push from there as he knows he can't kick with the other three, Jakob pushes to keep him behind, Kerr and Hocker bide their time. Komen and Cheruiyot are done after this move. Kerr kicks from 200, Hocker waits until 120-100. Not sure who wins but the top three are Kerr, Hocker, and Jakob.
I think I did OK with that. I didn't think Nuguse would have enough in the last 100 to medal but good on him, he saved his best for the most important race of the year. All three medallists peaked brilliantly
40 -
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Yared leads through 400 in 56.0 or so.
Jakob doesn’t go straight to the back this time, leaving that to Nordas, and takes the lead before 500m.
Kessler and Hocker try to run near the front on the rail, and Kerr bullies them at some point on lap 2 to take position behind Jakob and Nuguse.
Jakob 1:51.5 through 800 with Nuguse second and Kerr 3rd.
Kerr surprises by making his move with 500 to go. The race is on at this point and most are now laboring to keep in contact.
2:46.7 at 1200 with Jakob on Kerr’s ass and 3 meters back to Nuguse. Hocker moves into 3rd on the backstretch aiming to catch the top 2.
Coming off the last turn, Kerr starts rigging enough for Jakob to muscle past and win by 5 meters. Kerr survives for silver in a big PB, and Nuguse rallies to hawk Hocker for Bronze, Hocker’s famous kick voided by the super fast race.
1. Jakob 3:27.1
2. Kerr 3:27.8
3. Nuguse 3:28.3
4. Hocker 3:28.4
5. Laros 3:28.9
6. Nordas 3:29.1
7. Cheruiyot 3:29.7
8. Gourley 3:29.9
9. Kessler 3:30.2
10. Komen 3:30.8
11. Nillesen 3:31.5
12. Arese 3:31.8
The great thing is I don’t have to wait long to be proven totally wrong!
You got Kerr's place and time exactly correct
40 -
Well this thread didnt age well for most of you.
10 -
Bob Schul GOAT wrote:
Well this thread didnt age well for most of you.
It aged well for poster BIg Red who got quoted in Guardian for nailing prediction.
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