You know who would have had at least a 25 percent chance to medal if he had run the steeple at the trials and made the team? Cooper Teare that’s who. What a lost opportunity.
On paper this seems totally true but in reality not everyone is cut out for jumping over barriers.
On paper -- Zig Zag or Bambu? Teare has a zero point zero chance of becoming a steeplechaser.
I don’t think Corrigan racing flawlessly indicates that he has more in the tank. To me, it says that was his A+ performance. And huge props to him, because it got him to the Olympics, but I don’t think he is taking another step up this season. Given that his season was built around NCAAs/USAs, I’d be surprised to see him in the final.
Obviously you've never had a breakthrough before. When you have breakthrough days you knew beforehand that you were already there. It feels effortless because it is. I dont expect him to be looking backwards, you can grit your teeth and do that for him.
When I was a freshman in high school, I had a series of breakout races, dropping my mile from 5:22 to 5:04 in a month or so. That is prone to happen when you’ve been running for 6 months and aren’t very good.
That is not prone to happen when you’re an Olympic-level runner. If you take a big step up by dropping your steeple PR by 10 seconds, you’ve probably tapped all your improvement for that season. “Momentum” won’t trump physical reality.
I’m very happy for Corrigan. He earned his Olympian title. But I have no reason to believe that he will see another breakout in Paris, and many reasons to believe he will not.
Malmo, how about you make a concrete prediction so you can be proven a wise man or a fool once the races have been run? Here’s mine: Corrigan neither PRs nor makes the final. Rooks leaves no doubt who the better training partner is.
Obviously you've never had a breakthrough before. When you have breakthrough days you knew beforehand that you were already there. It feels effortless because it is. I dont expect him to be looking backwards, you can grit your teeth and do that for him.
Malmo, how about you make a concrete prediction so you can be proven a wise man or a fool once the races have been run? Here’s mine: Corrigan neither PRs nor makes the final. Rooks leaves no doubt who the better training partner is.
I dont make "concrete predictions" especially if I was an anonymous message board coward.
Well I did make one prediction the day of Jagers debut. I said he was " the best American steeplechasrr I've ever seen and will be the next AR holder, sooner than later, perhaps as soon as this year."
You're anonymous. What you say doesn't matter. This is not a pissing match.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
On paper -- Zig Zag or Bambu? Teare has a zero point zero chance of becoming a steeplechaser.
He is 24 years old -- young enough to try it if he wants to. I think Beamish made his debut in the steeplechase at age 26.
The cool thing about the steeplechase is that everyone gets encouraged to try. There is no secret handshake. You either do it or you don't. Pretty simple, really.
At 26 Beamish was a 3:50 miler when he tried the steeplechase (8:40) Abysmal when you look at it objectively. He survived.
Andrew Acosta wa a 3:51 miler when he took a jump. 9:30. Took him forever to break 9:00, then max out at 8:50. Good for him. We need more Acosta.
I was a (very young) 18 year old with a 4:08 mile best. I looked like your average 14yo. 8:52 on my first try. Thats potential.
Before you talk about someone's steeplechase potential they need to get their feet wet (sic) first.
Unless he is willing to go when the first move is made, he and Beamish will be hoping to pick up the scraps and maybe squeak out a bronze. Is that good enough for either of these two? I don’t think so.
He has way more than a 1% chance. Here are the facts:
-True, his PR is 8:15/8:16 (I can’t remember which). But James Corrigan ran 8:13, and Rooks took him apart at the Trials. If Corrigan is an 8:13 guy, Rooks is an 8:09 guy, which puts him right with Beamish, a widely-embraced medal threat.
-Last year, Rooks had an NCAA racing schedule with a peak geared toward NCAAs/USAs. This year, as the clear favorite for the trials, he has raced sparingly and is obviously peaking for the Olympics.
-Rooks can kick. Not like Beamish, but he isn’t a time trial guy. He shows up in championships and is well suited to the kind of tactics we’ve seen in recent global steeple finals (slow start, fast finish).
-Rooks’ weakness: he hasn’t raced any Diamond Leagues. In fact, I’m pretty sure all of his steeples have been layups against weak competition. He won’t be used to running in the caliber of field he’ll see in the final. Still, he got through Budapest without any real blunders, as far as I could tell.
Rooks’ bronze medal scenario: Nobody takes it out hard. 8:20 pace for 4-5 laps. El Bakkali or Girma attacks with 2-3 laps to go, blowing the field wide open. Beamish’s injury has flared up and he is out of commission. Rooks, in as good of shape and better form than most of the rest of the field, with a big kick and a little luck, runs to bronze behind the big 2.
Of course, if Girma takes it out at 8:00 pace, Rooks probably ends up 5th-9th in 8:06-8:10. But Girma didn’t do that last year, and is probably trusting his kick given his recent 1500 exploits.
In summary, the brojos’ list of American medal threats has Rooks way too far down. I’m giving him 8%.
Great post. He's 7-8 seconds faster than his teammate that just ran 8:13, so that puts him in medal contention, plus, Rooks has never been challenged. He's a beast. He's young, he's focused, I think he runs near 8:05.
I agree. You really have to try it to get an idea. The waterjump is nothing you can imagine when running at speed. Much bigger/taller/longer than it looks. But I think Beamish could be a good chance for a bronze as people bonk in the 100.
By far the slowest heat and he did not show anything close to El Bahkali or Girma and handful of Kenyans and others. It would take a big fall for him to have a chance.
The perfect storm for Rooks is a slow pace, a bunched field, and a nasty fall that takes down a couple of top runners. If this happens, Rooks can medal.
The OP's 8 percent is far more reasonable than Rojo's 1 percent.
The perfect storm for Rooks is a slow pace, a bunched field, and a nasty fall that takes down a couple of top runners. If this happens, Rooks can medal.
The OP's 8 percent is far more reasonable than Rojo's 1 percent.
He has way more than a 1% chance. Here are the facts:
-True, his PR is 8:15/8:16 (I can’t remember which). But James Corrigan ran 8:13, and Rooks took him apart at the Trials. If Corrigan is an 8:13 guy, Rooks is an 8:09 guy, which puts him right with Beamish, a widely-embraced medal threat.
-Last year, Rooks had an NCAA racing schedule with a peak geared toward NCAAs/USAs. This year, as the clear favorite for the trials, he has raced sparingly and is obviously peaking for the Olympics.
-Rooks can kick. Not like Beamish, but he isn’t a time trial guy. He shows up in championships and is well suited to the kind of tactics we’ve seen in recent global steeple finals (slow start, fast finish).
-Rooks’ weakness: he hasn’t raced any Diamond Leagues. In fact, I’m pretty sure all of his steeples have been layups against weak competition. He won’t be used to running in the caliber of field he’ll see in the final. Still, he got through Budapest without any real blunders, as far as I could tell.
Rooks’ bronze medal scenario: Nobody takes it out hard. 8:20 pace for 4-5 laps. El Bakkali or Girma attacks with 2-3 laps to go, blowing the field wide open. Beamish’s injury has flared up and he is out of commission. Rooks, in as good of shape and better form than most of the rest of the field, with a big kick and a little luck, runs to bronze behind the big 2.
Of course, if Girma takes it out at 8:00 pace, Rooks probably ends up 5th-9th in 8:06-8:10. But Girma didn’t do that last year, and is probably trusting his kick given his recent 1500 exploits.
In summary, the brojos’ list of American medal threats has Rooks way too far down. I’m giving him 8%.
Great post. He's 7-8 seconds faster than his teammate that just ran 8:13, so that puts him in medal contention, plus, Rooks has never been challenged. He's a beast. He's young, he's focused, I think he runs near 8:05.
The perfect storm for Rooks is a slow pace, a bunched field, and a nasty fall that takes down a couple of top runners. If this happens, Rooks can medal.
The OP's 8 percent is far more reasonable than Rojo's 1 percent.
Strange days we're living in.
The one thing that’s not strange is that a random poster had better insight than rojo.
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