Why is no one talking about Cheruiyot as a 1500m gold medal contender?

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I think Tim is underrated as a potential silver or bronze medalist for sure. It still seems a bit unlikely that he'd beat both Jakob and Kerr with their fitness advantage (Jakob's advantage was obvious in Monaco, Kerr's expected based on Indoors/Pre). Everyone else is kind of our Westerner bias, as we rate Hocker, Nuguse, even Laros, Gourley, Nordas, Habz or Hoare higher at times. Before Tim got injured in the Budapest heats last year, he had run a fast (if untidy race) in Oslo as well as good 800/3000m races. Only Jakob, Yared or Kipsang would probably be rated higher. This year, he's been really good in all 3 Diamond Leagues and I'd say should be 3rd favorite with Yared/Cole right there behind with Komen, Reynold, and Laros (as a wild card). When considering whether Tim will win, a potential advantage for him will be he's probably learned somewhat from his 2022 experience. If Jakob wants to lead and make it fast, he won't challenge as much. If not, he'll be happy to lead a pace he can handle until Jakob wants to drop the pace. In 2022, clearly he tried to take the lead too often and burned out his finish (with Katir using an iffy inside pass/elbow that wrecked his momentum). I don't see a repeat of that now, and Monaco showed he's really strong.

Coevett wrote:

Not sure if he is just past his peak, or that his training partner and close friend got busted.

He's still inconsistant, and hasn't won a race this season. He pushed Jakob in Oslo when Jakob was coming back from injury and had run a 3:45 mile in the USA just five days previously.

He came 3rd in the Kenyan trials. When he won in Doha he had ran a 1:43.11 800m. Running 3:28.7 two seconds behind Jakob in Monaco makes you only an outside bet for a medal. Kerr would have ran 3:26 and Laros 3:27.

Of course, he is Kenyan, so there's always the possibility he could get boosted before the Games.

But he doesn't seem to have the fitness to handle rounds anymore. His best showing in a Championship since Tokyo is 2nd at the Commonwealth Games in 2022. He struggles to come in the top 3 even in Kenyan Championships these days.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Yeah there are some almost manic posts following this one (specifically around Josh Kerr's assumed potential) but this is the best one to respond to.

TC not being mentioned as a gold medal contender is quite straight forwards - I'm not sure what the race script is that sees him win.

If Jakob is at his best, Tim can neither run away from him (if he couldn't in Tokyo, he certainly can't here), nor can he keep with Jakob (3.26.73 vs 3.28.71 literally a few weeks ago). If Jakob isn't at his best (like the WC last year) or screws up his execution (like Eugene), it's even still hard to imagine Tims best front running would be enough. 3.29.26 solo'ing was revolutionary in 2019 - since then not a single global final has been over 3.30 and Jakob alone was able to essentially run within 2/10ths of that effort in Eugene and Budapest even with poor execution and a flat battery.

This doesn't even factor in the reigning world champion who is clearly better than his 3.29.05 PR and has arguably the best ability to deal with the widest spectrum of potential race scripts in the field. Does this 2024 evolution of Josh Kerr struggle with 1.52.0 at 800m in a final? I just don't think so. This means that we would need the two best guys in the race to get it horribly wrong/literally be ill in order to see a scenario where Tim wins.

I have him basically tethered to Nuguse - I feel like they are almost exactly the same athlete at this point in both their careers. I also feel that is on a "podium contender" level - but definitely the minor spots (and heavily weighted to that 3rd spot). I personally think it would be incredible if this wasn't his ceiling in Paris and hence, he's not a gold medal contender as this also assumes each athlete in the field as running at or close to their absolute best - him included.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Giles clipped Kerr in the backstraight too, which is why Kerr suddenly went backwards, then managed to gather himself again in the home straight before being brought down.

Given Pattison has run 1:42 since then, both Kerr and Burgin's performances look even more impressive. I honestly don't see how Jakob beats Kerr, assuming Kerr didn't miss any training because of that fall.

This isn't confrontational, purely for discussion - if in the final (obviously after prelims, semis etc) a fully fit (ie. not compromised as he claimed in Budapest) Jakob was able to get to 1200m in the 2.47.0-2.47.5 range, does Josh Kerr still beat him?

I look at it this way - we know how he is running that - it's going to be something like 56.0, 55.7, 55.5 right? (give or take a few tenths), and if he does that it would signal to me he is right on top of his game, as he was in Monaco (and basically every race over the last 12+ months that wasn't the Budapest final). That means he is going to be closing the race in the 40.5-41.0 second range which puts us somewhere in the mid to high 3.27's.

No disrespect to Josh Kerr, but I am not sure if that is so easy for him to overcome. Who is more likely to be able to run 3.27.7 in an Olympic final in 2024 - Jakob or Josh? It's not Josh.

If it is going to be between these two (as it seems right now), we will almost know before the final 300m of the race. If at any point Jakob let's the pace drop to the high 56's/low 57's he will be dead to rights and it will be Kerr that takes him. If he doesn't (ie. executes his race as he will be aiming to) I personally find it hard to see how Josh beats Jakob.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Ydap wrote:

Yeah but your hypothetical is not realistic so it is pointless to address it. Jakob cannot run 3:27 without rabbits. He ran 3:26.73 recently at the famously fast Monaco, and that was with rabbits. Jakob knows he will be the hunted but he cannot run faster than 3:28 in a global championship without rabbits. This is not to say he cannot win but he cannot do so by running 3:27 unless someone paces him, which is theoretically possible but highly unlikely.

My god I am going to love coming back to this thread and bumping it if Jakob runs under 3.28 in the final from the front and wins it.

The thing is, he might not even have to - he might also be the only guy in the field right now capable of running 3.28.50 in the final. I just read Gaults piece where Mackey thinks Kerr was also in 3.26 shape after Jakob ran it in Monaco - I would just say that this might be nice to theorize (from Mackeys side) - it's another thing to go out and actually do it. Do I think Josh Kerr can go out and drop his PR from 3.29.05 to sub 3.27 in one race? Zero chance. Go and put yourself through 1200m in under 2.47 at least once or twice before we start talking about running 3.26.xx.

I'm going to also disagree with you regarding "rabbits" - I actually don't think that under the current way races are trained for an executed a rabbit really means that much anymore. Jakob is still running these times with just wavelight - he spends more time in races looking at that first green light that he does at the back of his pacer. Now the easy comeback here is "well there is no WL in Paris so he's f-ed", that's true, there isn't WL but I believe this is where the value of consistent racing and perfecting this craft could and will pay off for him. If he gets it right through 800m (mid 1.51's off a low 56 first lap) then I don't see the 3rd lap dropping because at this point it's becoming almost like muscle memory for him.

But let's see, we are going to know the answer to this in less than a weeks time.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Ydap wrote:

Yeah but your hypothetical is not realistic so it is pointless to address it. Jakob cannot run 3:27 without rabbits. He ran 3:26.73 recently at the famously fast Monaco, and that was with rabbits. Jakob knows he will be the hunted but he cannot run faster than 3:28 in a global championship without rabbits. This is not to say he cannot win but he cannot do so by running 3:27 unless someone paces him, which is theoretically possible but highly unlikely.

My god I am going to love coming back to this thread and bumping it if Jakob runs under 3.28 in the final from the front and wins it.

The thing is, he might not even have to - he might also be the only guy in the field right now capable of running 3.28.50 in the final. I just read Gaults piece where Mackey thinks Kerr was also in 3.26 shape after Jakob ran it in Monaco - I would just say that this might be nice to theorize (from Mackeys side) - it's another thing to go out and actually do it. Do I think Josh Kerr can go out and drop his PR from 3.29.05 to sub 3.27 in one race? Zero chance. Go and put yourself through 1200m in under 2.47 at least once or twice before we start talking about running 3.26.xx. Also, it's going to be a taxing 4 days - heat and a very high level to get to the final - the highest ever. I personally think Jakobs 5000m endurance is going to be very helpful.

I'm going to also disagree with you regarding "rabbits" - I actually don't think that under the current way races are trained for an executed a rabbit really means that much anymore. Jakob is still running these times with just wavelight - he spends more time in races looking at that first green light that he does at the back of his pacer. Now the easy comeback here is "well there is no WL in Paris so he's f-ed", that's true, there isn't WL but I believe this is where the value of consistent racing and perfecting this craft could and will pay off for him. If he gets it right through 800m (mid 1.51's off a low 56 first lap) then I don't see the 3rd lap dropping because at this point it's becoming almost like muscle memory for him.

But let's see, we are going to know the answer to this in less than a weeks time.