Well I think Jiminny might have to come up with his own list. I wonder what you guys will think of Jiminny’s list. Even he isn’t quite sure what to make of some of these athletes in terms of where they are at now.
Having Sisson at 1% and attributing it to her “not liking hills” is a little reductive. She has only raced 1 hilly marathon and that was the trials in 2020 where she dropped out, but otherwise has just been chasing fast times. She has even said in interviews herself she has had success at hilly courses before, 25K Champs etc. She has spoken at length about how she is doing a lot of course-specific strength conditioning so she can handle the steep decline of this course and has seen great improvements on her hilly tempos.
Well, it was an interesting way for a distance fan to while away the time waiting for Olympic track to begin.
However, as a legitimate attempt at setting medal odds for all US distance runners, it also was a meaningless pursuit because (a) heat sheets have yet to be published, (b) we don't yet know who the doublers/triplers/quadruplers will be, and (c) this exercise set probabilities for athletes winning medals who may not even make the finals in their events.
One lone exception: men's 10,000 because it's on t&f's first day and there are no heats, thus we already know who the 27 finalists are. Thus, guessing each runner's chances of winning medals does seem like a reasonable alternative to taking a nap.
Note: because of Grant's record against his main 10,000 competition -- namely Kejelcha, Barega, Aregawi, Cheptegai, and Kiplimo -- as well as his excellent championship racing record in heat and humidity, seems like Grant's chances of winning a medal are 50% (6 guys racing for 3 medals) rather than 10%.
Everyone -- and I mean everyone -- will change their minds and their picks following semifinals of each event. At that point, all questions regarding health, fitness, racing acumen, and who's looking good, who isn't, will have been answered.
Reading Rojo’s take on Fisher’s chances in the 10K, I had an issue with this part:
“I don’t like Fisher’s odds for a medal in the 10k at all. He’s not as good as Yomif Kejelcha, Jacob Kiplimo, Selemon Barega,or Joshua Cheptegei. If they run their best, Fisher isn’t beating them. Yes, Fisher leads Kejelcha 5-3 lifetime in all races but Kejelcha has won the last three and they haven’t been particularly close (2023 Florence, 2023 Zurich, and 2023 Pre).”
I don’t think two non-championship 5K races and a non-championship 3K are necessarily indicative of how they stack up in a championship 10K. I think it’s more helpful to look at their championship head to head record. Fisher has the advantage there, 2-0. Fisher beat Kejelcha in the last Olympic 10K, and he beat him in the 2022 world championship 5K. It’s therefore conceivable that Fisher can beat him again.
Yeah, Hocker at twice as likely to medal seems crazy. Nuguse had a very “meh” race in Budapest and was 5th in 3:30.25–higher than Hocker has placed in a global final in a faster time than Hocker’s PB. In Monaco Yared was the only guy who looked like he had any aspirations to beat Jakob and faded to 3:29.13/4th, which would be far and away Hocker’s best DL performance.
If anything, Nuguse at twice as likely as Hocker—30% to 15%, or so—seems reasonable.
Your Monaco point is kinda off on the Jakob part, I think. I didn’t really see Yareds move past Cheruiyot as realistically aspirational to beat Jakob - more I think he misjudged and thought he had more left than he did and was going to gap Tim. Everyone was in striking distance until at 1,100 when Jakob cranked it up. Yared worked hard to barely get by Tim and in fact Tim almost ran into the back of him because he anticipated Yared would either lift the pace more or not cut in.
Either way agree with your overall sentiment, but on the converse side, who is more likely to get a good ride and pick off guys the last 300? Probably Hocker a la Nordas last year. Yared needs to win bronze by probably getting clear separation and finishing strong enough a la Pre. Even though he’s not a poor finisher by any means that’s where the rest of the guys scare me (Komen, Tim, Hocker, Laros, Nordas ~ though him not so much). He kinda reminds me of being in the same spot Iguider used to occupy, but he got two bronzes so maybe I should be more optimistic of the really strong, consistent guy.
Akins 25% vs. Whittaker 0%??? Come on. They aren't that different in ability and medal potential. With the remaining comp, two medals are not even in play, so I give neither more than a 10% shot. And Nuguse, a 3:43 miler, gets half the chance of Hocker? That doesn't make sense.
Nobody should be zero. I think Kessler is too low and Fisher too high.
Kessler? What the hell is he going to medal in? 3 races ago he lost to Eric Holt in a 1500. After those back to back 1:43s, I did wonder if maybe he's at a new level and we'll see him freed up in the 1500 but he's not an 800 guy so he's not medalling there and he's much closer to Ciattei than he Hocker/Nuguse in the 1500 based on results.
As for zero, it was approximately zero, but please tell me how Whittni Morgan medals. She was 5th at the US Trials. I think the odd are way closer to zero than 1%.
It's like how many times in 10 years of coaching at Cornell did my 7th runner finish 1st in xc? Answer. Zero. Now there weren't 100 y
I think Dakotah Lindwurm has a chance, albeit small, to pull a Molly Seidel and sneak in for a medal. She has been training on the course, and with as hilly and hot as everyone is saying it's supposed to be, I think the race becomes a war of attrition. If that's the case, I like Lindwurm's chances to make the podium.
So the Americans are going to put 2 on the podium? Lindwurm a GREAT story but why in God's name would you like her over Fiona who beat her by 3.5 minutes at the Trials and is also a GREAT hill runner.
If it's a war of attrition, the fittest people should be fading the least. And while it's going to be 93 in Paris today, the high for next Thursday is projected to be 77.
When Imade my odds, I did think "Oh it coudl be a wild marathon." But the more I think about it - this isn't going to be a freezing cold Boston where people have hypothermia. The hills may end up rewarding fitness.
ANd I think people will be scared. I don't think anyone will have the guts to do so antyhign on the first super long hill.
Rojo, as a former math teacher you are aware that odds are not a percentage expression, they are expressed as a ratio. Just sayin'
I was never great at this topic, but I learned probably 10-20 years ago when you posted something that explained it well.... probability vs. odds or something like that hahaha
Rojo, as a former math teacher you are aware that odds are not a percentage expression, they are expressed as a ratio. Just sayin'
I was never great at this topic, but I learned probably 10-20 years ago when you posted something that explained it well.... probability vs. odds or something like that hahaha
It was a poker thread. Back when Chris Moneymaker lit up the poker fad. We had a guy with here at LRC, a math PhD who worked at Unilever who couldn't quite grasp the methodology of poker math. I broke it down step by step (even created a spreadsheet for him) until finally the light came on.
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