Kipchoge without the secret shoes maybe wins in 2016, maybe not. His time is race equal to say, 2:10 without the plated shoes. People would've been closer and in the hunt so it's a whole different race. So there's that. And I don't believe Rupp medals without the shoes. Did Desisa have the shoes as well? In Tokyo, he did win in a race with a more level playing field. 3 years on and In Paris I don't believe he or Bekele will medal. And there's a good chance both will DNF.
Of course they’re not going to win. I have more faith in Bekele’s ability to race, and run the paces necessary to stay competitive for a podium spot.
Kipchoge is a 2:03-2:04 marathoner on a flat course at this age, but he won’t accept it. He hammers the first half of every marathon he runs, trying to set a world record or ‘break 2’, only to positive split. He bombed Boston (a bad sign if you take into account the Paris course and the location of the hills in it). He won Berlin (by the skin of his teeth), then bombed Tokyo again with another 6 min positive split. He’ll go to the front and try to run a time trial in Paris. That might break a few runners who’ll go with him and DNF, opening an opportunity for Bekele.
I think Kipchoge will adjust his tactics for Paris given the foregoing experiences. His plan must be course-specific; the pitfalls he experienced in Boston will allow him to calibrate how he will approach Paris.
A lot of people seem to forget Kipchoge has won the last two Olympic marathons . They think he hasn’t run any tactical races . His most recent marathons make it look to me like time is catching up to him . I think the heat and hilly course could produce a surprise winner .
you are correct, during the marathon there will be two races
the olympic marathon
and the real race kenenisa vs kipchoge
Unless they’re fighting for the gold, the result won’t be definitive. It’s possible that one of them will cover a fast pace, and the one that didn’t, will end up placing higher.
Love both these athletes and although they are still super elite I have a feeling a young gun is going to scoop the top spot.
Discus
Call me the Oracle. Great to see Bekele finish though even though he was well out of contention. He used to DNF a lot if he lost the lead but respect for him still finishing.