I don't really get the confidence in McSweyn. I think he is at a 3:33 shape this year at best and won't make the final.
My personal dark horse is Raphael Pallitsch. Ran 3:33 PB this year and had the fastest last 400m at the Euros, except for Jakob. Might even sneak into the final if times his kick right.
Quick list. With the Ethiopians, it's a bit murky so I'll include their alternate Hailu.
GOAT Tier:
1. Faith Kipyegon (KEN)
Top Medal Contenders:
2. Gudaf Tsegay (ETH) 3. Diribe Welteji (ETH) 4. Jessica Hull (AUS) - thought about putting her 3, but Welteji just has more top performances
Next Women Up: 5. Freweyni Hailu (ETH) 6. Birke Haylom (ETH) 7. Laura Muir (GBR) 8. Elle St. Pierre (USA) 10. Nelly Chepchirchir (KEN) 11. Nikki Hiltz (USA) - Low? Maybe. USAs played perfectly into Hiltz's hands 12. Emily MacKay (USA)
Dark Horses: 13. Georgia Bell 14. Ciara Mageean - Feel like she'd be right with Chepchirchir with a more consistent season 15. Linden Hall 16. Susan Ejore
Could Sneak Into the Final 17. Agathe Guillemot 18. Sarah Healy 19. Revee Walcott-Nolan 20. Georgia Griffith
HM (in line to crush SBs): Maia Ramsden, Nozomi Tanaka, Lucia Stafford
It’s a good question. I’m thinking Jakob executes a better race and Kerr has had a few setbacks that have been kept under wraps. I don’t know if Jakob maybe lets Tim lead through 600 but that would be a big help for him.
London doesn't feature too many of the top guys, so I figure it probably won't change a ton. Restricting this only to guys competing in Paris.
Gold Tier:
1A. Jakob- NOR (1B) - PB in Monaco where he looked at his best 1B. Josh Kerr- GBR (1A) - Didn't look great in the 800, but at this point 5,000 is probably his better championship off event. Not going to read too much into it.
Medal Threats:
3. Timothy Cheruiyot - KEN (4) - Keeps getting better and showed that he was likely not concerned about place at Kenyan Trials, 3:28.71 and far from a smooth trip 4. Yared Nuguse - USA (3) - Monaco and USAs weren't bad, but it's clear he's not in the tiptop shape he got to at the end of last year 5. Cole Hocker - USA (7) - Questions about how he'll fare in a super-fast race remain, but there's little doubt this is the best he's ever been 6. Brian Komen - KEN (9) - Pretty huge performance in Monaco and caught a break with Munguti not hitting the time for Paris, minus Kenyan Trials has been excellent 7. Reynold Cheruiyot - KEN (6) - Same questions as Hocker, and needs to clean up tactics
Dark Horses:
8. Neil Gourley - GBR (8) - Needs to jump up a level to contend, but finishes well and is quite good in slow races, can he put together a top race after rounds and in a fast final? 9. Niels Laros - NED (NR) - Finally getting some races in but falling at Monaco makes it hard to place him 10. George Mills - GBR (12) - Certainly strong enough for the rounds and a fast race, but can hang up front with the best?
Searching for Their Old Level 11. Oliver Hoare - AUS (13) - Improving each race and that's despite getting gashed and dying a fair bit in Monaco 12. Azeddine Habz - FRA (11) - The concern is that after a good 800m, Monaco was a struggle, and it could be due to lack of base which it's too late to solve 13. Narve Nordas - NOR (28) - Seems to have figured it out a bit, but still well off last year's heights for now and plays a dangerous game with passive tactics
Upside Long Shots
14. Hobbs Kessler - USA (14) - Perhaps he can jump a level at his age with the pressure off and the 800m as backup 15. Abdisa Fayisa - ETH (17) - Young, barely-raced and untested 16. Jochem Vermuelen - BEL (20)- Better idea of his ceiling after London 17. Stewart McSweyn - AUS (HM) - Looked like Vintage Stewy in Paris, and even if he doesn't have the finish that could be strong enough to make a Final
Not Seeing It 18. Isaac Nader - POR (10)- Ran a low-key double in Portugal the day after Monaco so maybe mind was elsewhere...but hasn't taken a step forward after good Indoors/Oslo
Running Well But It Feels Like a Stretch...
19. Ruben Verheyden - BEL (24) 20. Robert Farken - GER (26) 21. Federico Riva - ITA (NR) 22. Anass Essayi - MAR (NR) HM Tier: Mael Gouyette (FRA), Romain Mornet (FRA), Pietro Arese (ITA), Samuel Tefera (ETH), Cathal Doyle (IRL), Adel Mechaal (ESP), Kieran Lumb (CAN), Stefan Nillessen (NED)
Trending Downward (Inexplicably): Mario Garcia-Romo (ESP), Andrew Coscoran (IRL), Adam Spencer (AUS)
London doesn't feature too many of the top guys, so I figure it probably won't change a ton. Restricting this only to guys competing in Paris.
Gold Tier:
1A. Jakob- NOR (1B) - PB in Monaco where he looked at his best 1B. Josh Kerr- GBR (1A) - Didn't look great in the 800, but at this point 5,000 is probably his better championship off event. Not going to read too much into it.
Medal Threats:
3. Timothy Cheruiyot - KEN (4) - Keeps getting better and showed that he was likely not concerned about place at Kenyan Trials, 3:28.71 and far from a smooth trip 4. Yared Nuguse - USA (3) - Monaco and USAs weren't bad, but it's clear he's not in the tiptop shape he got to at the end of last year 5. Cole Hocker - USA (7) - Questions about how he'll fare in a super-fast race remain, but there's little doubt this is the best he's ever been 6. Brian Komen - KEN (9) - Pretty huge performance in Monaco and caught a break with Munguti not hitting the time for Paris, minus Kenyan Trials has been excellent 7. Reynold Cheruiyot - KEN (6) - Same questions as Hocker, and needs to clean up tactics
Dark Horses:
8. Neil Gourley - GBR (8) - Needs to jump up a level to contend, but finishes well and is quite good in slow races, can he put together a top race after rounds and in a fast final? 9. Niels Laros - NED (NR) - Finally getting some races in but falling at Monaco makes it hard to place him 10. George Mills - GBR (12) - Certainly strong enough for the rounds and a fast race, but can hang up front with the best?
Searching for Their Old Level 11. Oliver Hoare - AUS (13) - Improving each race and that's despite getting gashed and dying a fair bit in Monaco 12. Azeddine Habz - FRA (11) - The concern is that after a good 800m, Monaco was a struggle, and it could be due to lack of base which it's too late to solve 13. Narve Nordas - NOR (28) - Seems to have figured it out a bit, but still well off last year's heights for now and plays a dangerous game with passive tactics
Upside Long Shots
14. Hobbs Kessler - USA (14) - Perhaps he can jump a level at his age with the pressure off and the 800m as backup 15. Abdisa Fayisa - ETH (17) - Young, barely-raced and untested 16. Jochem Vermuelen - BEL (20)- Better idea of his ceiling after London 17. Stewart McSweyn - AUS (HM) - Looked like Vintage Stewy in Paris, and even if he doesn't have the finish that could be strong enough to make a Final
Not Seeing It 18. Isaac Nader - POR (10)- Ran a low-key double in Portugal the day after Monaco so maybe mind was elsewhere...but hasn't taken a step forward after good Indoors/Oslo
Running Well But It Feels Like a Stretch...
19. Ruben Verheyden - BEL (24) 20. Robert Farken - GER (26) 21. Federico Riva - ITA (NR) 22. Anass Essayi - MAR (NR) HM Tier: Mael Gouyette (FRA), Romain Mornet (FRA), Pietro Arese (ITA), Samuel Tefera (ETH), Cathal Doyle (IRL), Adel Mechaal (ESP), Kieran Lumb (CAN), Stefan Nillessen (NED)
Trending Downward (Inexplicably): Mario Garcia-Romo (ESP), Andrew Coscoran (IRL), Adam Spencer (AUS)
Not much changes after London for me. Laros validates me being high on him running 3:49.45 despite falling. I would jump him past Gourley. Mechaal jumps to where I had Nader. Still not buying it but he’s competitive in an honest but not blistering pace. Coscoran an encouraging performance but he’s a fringe semi finalist.
London doesn't feature too many of the top guys, so I figure it probably won't change a ton. Restricting this only to guys competing in Paris.
Gold Tier:
1A. Jakob- NOR (1B) - PB in Monaco where he looked at his best 1B. Josh Kerr- GBR (1A) - Didn't look great in the 800, but at this point 5,000 is probably his better championship off event. Not going to read too much into it.
Medal Threats:
3. Timothy Cheruiyot - KEN (4) - Keeps getting better and showed that he was likely not concerned about place at Kenyan Trials, 3:28.71 and far from a smooth trip 4. Yared Nuguse - USA (3) - Monaco and USAs weren't bad, but it's clear he's not in the tiptop shape he got to at the end of last year 5. Cole Hocker - USA (7) - Questions about how he'll fare in a super-fast race remain, but there's little doubt this is the best he's ever been 6. Brian Komen - KEN (9) - Pretty huge performance in Monaco and caught a break with Munguti not hitting the time for Paris, minus Kenyan Trials has been excellent 7. Reynold Cheruiyot - KEN (6) - Same questions as Hocker, and needs to clean up tactics
Dark Horses:
8. Neil Gourley - GBR (8) - Needs to jump up a level to contend, but finishes well and is quite good in slow races, can he put together a top race after rounds and in a fast final? 9. Niels Laros - NED (NR) - Finally getting some races in but falling at Monaco makes it hard to place him 10. George Mills - GBR (12) - Certainly strong enough for the rounds and a fast race, but can hang up front with the best?
Searching for Their Old Level 11. Oliver Hoare - AUS (13) - Improving each race and that's despite getting gashed and dying a fair bit in Monaco 12. Azeddine Habz - FRA (11) - The concern is that after a good 800m, Monaco was a struggle, and it could be due to lack of base which it's too late to solve 13. Narve Nordas - NOR (28) - Seems to have figured it out a bit, but still well off last year's heights for now and plays a dangerous game with passive tactics
Upside Long Shots
14. Hobbs Kessler - USA (14) - Perhaps he can jump a level at his age with the pressure off and the 800m as backup 15. Abdisa Fayisa - ETH (17) - Young, barely-raced and untested 16. Jochem Vermuelen - BEL (20)- Better idea of his ceiling after London 17. Stewart McSweyn - AUS (HM) - Looked like Vintage Stewy in Paris, and even if he doesn't have the finish that could be strong enough to make a Final
Not Seeing It 18. Isaac Nader - POR (10)- Ran a low-key double in Portugal the day after Monaco so maybe mind was elsewhere...but hasn't taken a step forward after good Indoors/Oslo
Running Well But It Feels Like a Stretch...
19. Ruben Verheyden - BEL (24) 20. Robert Farken - GER (26) 21. Federico Riva - ITA (NR) 22. Anass Essayi - MAR (NR) HM Tier: Mael Gouyette (FRA), Romain Mornet (FRA), Pietro Arese (ITA), Samuel Tefera (ETH), Cathal Doyle (IRL), Adel Mechaal (ESP), Kieran Lumb (CAN), Stefan Nillessen (NED)
Trending Downward (Inexplicably): Mario Garcia-Romo (ESP), Andrew Coscoran (IRL), Adam Spencer (AUS)
Not much changes after London for me. Laros validates me being high on him running 3:49.45 despite falling. I would jump him past Gourley. Mechaal jumps to where I had Nader. Still not buying it but he’s competitive in an honest but not blistering pace. Coscoran an encouraging performance but he’s a fringe semi finalist.
Laros should have been higher even before today. He just ran 3:49.5 after falling and losing 3 seconds for certain. Even if falling flat on his face did not affect his subsequent running, he ran the equivalent of around 3:46.5 today. But you think he just moves up one place?
Well go back and watch the fall. There were 3 seconds from the time he fell, to the time he was up and running again.
Only four guys have broke 3:30 this year.
To think he's just the 10th favorite for 1500m gold in 2 weeks time after today (and his recent 1000m run) is ridiculous, but you can never admit you're even slightly wrong.
If Brian Komen or Reynould Cheryuit has just ran 3:49.5 after falling flat on their faces, you would be needing to take a cold shower.
Well go back and watch the fall. There were 3 seconds from the time he fell, to the time he was up and running again.
Only four guys have broke 3:30 this year.
To think he's just the 10th favorite for 1500m gold in 2 weeks time after today (and his recent 1000m run) is ridiculous, but you can never admit you're even slightly wrong.
If Brian Komen or Reynould Cheryuit has just ran 3:49.5 after falling flat on their faces, you would be needing to take a cold shower.
8 not 10. He fell forward no? Komen ran 3:28.8 and has been back and forth with Reynold all year. Reynold vs Laros is kinda a toss-up, I’d like to see more of both.
This post was edited 49 seconds after it was posted.
Also believe Laros should be higher. Was very impressed by yesterday.
Would have put Nordas up as 11 as an additional "dark horse". He is running so poorly tactically that if he suddenly get a good tactical run he will have a lot to go with the last 200 (watch London, he is running lane 2-3 for much of the race before getting on the back of Hoare)
You see that countries 24.000 billions GPD? they can buy everything ... they can fabrique a champion from a moderate caliber in the space of one year with the power of sponsors and professionalism.
The same way they fabricated Paavo Nurmi in 1920 and M. Phelps in the beginning of 2000s.